Compared with the past, there has been an overall improvement in the security situation, especially in the hotbeds of Baloch resistance. Wave after wave of surrendering militants laying down their arms and a relative decline in major incidents has led to a noticeable easing of the atmosphere of fear. People are once again travelling freely within the province and all this has given security forces the confidence to claim that there has been a turnaround in Balochistan.

Part of the reason is that, when compared with the past, there has been an overall improvement in the security situation, especially in the hotbeds of the Baloch resistance. Wave after wave of surrendering militants laying down their arms and a relative decline in major incidents has led to a noticeable easing of the atmosphere of fear. People are once again travelling freely within the province and all this has given security forces the confidence to claim that there has been a turnaround in Balochistan.

Adding to this is the recent statement by Brahamdagh Bugti, grandson of the late Nawab Akbar Bugti and leader of the Balochistan Republican Party (BRP) that he is willing to hold talks with Pakistan and may even give up on his demand for an independent Balochistan. Some speculate that there may be pragmatic reasons behind such a shift.

After years of insurgency, there is cautious optimism in Balochistan about the direction in which this resource-rich, but underdeveloped province is headed

The Bugti tribal territory is rich in natural gas. All the major gas fields of Sui, Loti, Pir Koh and Uch are located in the Bugti Tribal area while there has also been a huge gas discovery in the Zine Koh region. Some say that this field may be even bigger than Sui, which itself has transformed the entire national economy during the past 60 years.

Thus Brahamdagh’s change of heart may be due to the fact that, given that he is a claimant to the mineral riches of the Bugti Tribal Territory, he is under more pressure from the security forces as top and senior army officers conceded to media persons the other day. In case of the Zin Koh gas field, it is claimed that it is the biggest such find in the history of Pakistan and guarantees a fresh and plentiful supply of natural gas.

But while there is a new optimism, the old problems persist. The rulers have to win the trust of the people by implementing prudent policies on the ground and dealing fairly with the people of the province. Ultimately, the State will have to come to terms with the aspirations of the people in order to create a lasting and durable peace in Balochistan.

Though, the leaders of different political parties, including Baloch and Pakhtun nationalists, say the situation in Balochistan is improving, at the same time they express their apprehensions and reservations about the mindset of the Islamabad, particularly the security establishment.

Thus Brahamdagh’s change of heart may be due to the fact that, given that he is a claimant to the mineral riches of the Bugti Tribal Territory, he is under more pressure from the security forces as top and senior army officers conceded to media persons the other day.

They want major change in the mindset and attitude of Islamabad towards Balochistan as they think that most of the problems created in the province are due to the discriminatory attitude of the establishment, which has ignored Balochistan and its leadership in decision making and denied the province its due rights. This, they point out, feeds the sense of deprivation which then makes the youth of the province ripe for recruitment by militant outfits.

Balochistan Chief Minister Dr. Malik Baloch, is optimistic about the future of Balochistan, saying that situation in the province had improved to a great extent, but at the same time he was also critical about the attitude of Islamabad in terms of provincial rights that were not conceded despite the unanimous passage of the 18th Amendment.

“I am very much hopeful about further improvement in the law and order situation as the civil and military leadership had agreed to find peaceful solutions for Balochistan issues through negotiations,” Dr Baloch said, adding that he was a strong supporter of political dialogue.

He cautions that ultimately, military operations and the use of force are not a solution of the issues facing Balochistan. ‘All stakeholders must come on the negotiating table and initiate political dialogue,’ Dr Baloch said.

“Nawabzada Brahamdagh Bugti’s statement showing willingness for talks is a big achievement towards resolving the Balochistan issue,” Malik said, adding that the other groups may also agree to talks.

The leadership of Pakhtun and Baloch nationalist parties, including the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) and Balochistan National Party (BNP-Mengal) were also hopeful that talks could resolve the issue. “We are hopeful that the stakeholders would play their role in giving due rights to the provinces,” said Abdul Rahim Ziaratwal Provincial Information Minister and a senior leader of PkMAP.

He said that the government must avoid repeating the mistakes of the past if it is serious about inducting the nationalist leadership of Balochistan into mainstream politics.

“A trust deficit had emerged between the federation and Balochistan due to the wrong and questionable attitude of the center during the last six decades. The trust deficit must be plugged at the earliest,” Ziaratwal said.

Senator Dr Jehanzeb Jamaldini, the Senior Vice President of the BNP advised the government to respond positively to Brahamdagh’s offer for talks.

“It is of great significance that Brahamdagh Bugti has expressed his desire to join the democratic struggle for the rights of Balochistan,” Dr Jamaldani said.

“It is an encouraging move and it should not be considered as a victory or defeat for anyone,” the BNP leader said, adding that it will pave the way for resolving issues at the national level. “If the mistakes committed in the past were not repeated, then the situation in Balochistan will improve,” Mr Jamaldani.

The provincial government has also approached the Khan of Kalat, Agha Suleman Dawood, to convince him to return for talks. Nawab Sanaullah Khan Zehri who is also Chief of Jhalawan and belongs to the ruling PML-N is playing an important role in persuading the Khan of Kalat to end his self-exile.

Nawab Zehri had held a meeting with Khan of Kalat in London recently after a tribal delegation had also met Khan of Kalat in London in this regard.

“The tribal chiefs are now hopeful and optimistic that the joint efforts are bearing fruits after positive statements have been issued by both the Khan of Kalat and Nawabzada Brahamdagh Bugti”.

“We are going to hold another phase of dialogue with our brothers after Eidul-Azha. We will accord them a warm welcome if they end their self-exile,” he said.

Opposition leader in the Balochistan Assembly Maulana Abdul Wasey who has been a senior minister in the last three successive provincial governments is also a strong supporter of dialogue in order to find a peaceful solution to the Baloch conflict.

“It is a big breakthrough and a positive move that Nawabzada Brahamdagh Bugti has told BBC that he was ready to withdraw he demand for an independent Balochistan,” said Maulana Wasey who belongs to the JUI-F.

Currently, there is a practical lull in the fighting in all conflict zones in Balochistan. However, the government and its allies in all walks of life are still unpopular among tha masses, who claim that the government has not taken any major decisions to improve their lot.

If the government wins the support of the masses, it can retain victory for a long time to come. This is possible only by granting more and more powers to the provincial government with the federal government retaining only minimum powers. Otherwise, the gains on the ground can prove futile and another insurgency at some point in the future will seem a likely occurrence.

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, September 25th, 2015

On a mobile phone? Get the Dawn Mobile App: Apple Store | Google Play