CAN Pakistan become an Asian Tiger? This question seems far-fetched in our prevailing economic clime. But it has relevance because the demographic window of opportunity for rapid economic growth, beckoning us for years, remains open.

The question has its basis in the East Asian economic miracle of the 1990s which was shaped by the impressive growth performance of regional economies in the preceding decades. In a study published in the World Bank Review in 1998, Bloom and Williamson singled out the “age structure transition” of the population that was then taking place in the Tiger economies as a key conduit of their transformation. They used the term demographic dividend to denote the resultant economic gains and viewed public policy’s role as that of a catalyst and enabler.

Pakistan is now passing through a similar phase of ‘age structure transition’ in its demographic evolution. Many young people are being added to its working age segment and the number of dependent groups is declining. Almost two-thirds of the country’s population is younger than 30 and the median age is 21 years. Unlike Southeast Asia where the young population’s economic contribution was identified in hindsight, Pakistan can make informed policy decisions based on its demographic trends to accelerate economic growth.

An integrated framework is needed for demographic concerns.

What should be the components of an enabling policy framework to reap demographic dividends in Pakistan?

Such a framework must compass the whole process of the age structural transition of the population over its life cycle through a set of cross-sector policy interventions. It must avoid undue focus on the youth bulge because it is merely one facet of the larger process of the movement of population from young to working age to old. Each population group has its distinct role and impact on economic growth.

For example, it is not possible to evolve a youthful, productive workforce without investing in children’s health and education. As such, an integrated rather than a youth-centric strategy is a prerequisite to harness the potential of age structural transition and generate economic surplus.

In our national policy discourse, the initial reference to accrual of “demographic dividend (or frustration)” appears to have been made by the Planning Commission in its Vision 2030 paper published in 2006. Thereafter, the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper II prepared by the finance ministry in 2007 noted that “… converting the ongoing demographic transition into demographic dividend is another major challenge” which requires investment in human capital.

In 2011, the New Growth Strategy document unveiled by the Planning Commission reiterated the importance of human capital and supplemented it with an action plan for “youth and community engagement” for earning demographic dividends.

In all these documents, no integrated framework to manage age structure transition for accelerating growth has been proposed. It is clear that public policy is still not aligned with our changing demographic realities. Conversely, the focus of resource allocation has overwhelmingly been youth-centric in the past years. The most important initiatives have included distribution of free laptops amongst students, provision of subsidised cabs and tractors amongst the unemployed, youth festivals, building sports facilities and others.

While such interventions help channel young people’s energies into positive avenues, they treat the symptom and not the cause. The important thing is to make the transition to a policy environment which is not youth-centric but age structure transition-centric, addressing the needs of each age group.

The core public policy interventions necessary to generate economic surplus are related to recognition and nurturing of human capital by making investments in population planning, health, education and skills development and creating economic opportunities to em­­­power young people to generate savings. There is also a need for cross-sector policy formulation and implementation through a coordinated arrangement at the national and provincial levels.

For this purpose, the National Economic Council can lead the effort through a committee, headed by the deputy chairman, Planning Commission and including provincial representatives, academics, business chambers and other suitable members. An annual report on the national demographic situation can be published by this committee to describe the state of affairs and propose strategy for the next year.

The challenges posed by our changing demography are complex. Transforming them into growth opportunities is even more difficult. It is a task requiring concerted efforts at all levels — micro, macro, private sector, public sector and civil society. If we are able to tap the potential of our youth through meaningful interventions and succeed in addressing energy and security crises in the next few years, we would start moving in the footsteps of the miracle economies.

The writer, a civil servant, has worked as the Secretary, Planning and Development Department, Punjab.

Published in Dawn, October 15th , 2015

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