ON Monday night, the spectre of violence revisited Quetta, as an explosion on a bus heading to the outskirts of the provincial capital killed at least 11 people. The identity of the perpetrators of the deed remains a mystery.

What complicates matters is that several strands of violence — principally sectarian and separatist — intersect in Balochistan, so it is difficult to pin the blame without conclusive proof — even though the Young Baloch Tigers claimed that the blast occurred during the shifting of explosives meant for another target.

Also read: Quetta bus explosion: a family in mourning

Soon after the tragedy, the Balochistan home minister ruled out the possibility of a sectarian attack. A final verdict can only be arrived at once a proper investigation has been carried out.

Violence of all shades has indeed come down in Balochistan after the National Action Plan was launched earlier this year.

Before this, however, there was a constant cycle of violence in the province. For example, the two major sectarian bombings of 2013 — which targeted members of the Shia Hazara community — claimed over 200 lives between them.

Moreover, separatist violence was also widespread, with ‘settlers’, migrant workers and personnel of law-enforcement agencies being routinely targeted.

And while much of the sectarian and separatist violence has been contained, as Monday’s tragedy shows disruptive elements still have the capacity to cause harm in Balochistan. It must also be considered that this is a highly sensitive time of the year across the country, with Ashura just around the corner.

The authorities, including the Balochistan administration, have said they have taken extensive steps to secure Muharram-related events. Yet the bus explosion points to the fact that loopholes exist in the security plan.

The administration will need to redouble its efforts in order to keep the peace as the climax of Muharram approaches, especially considering that even localised acts of sectarian violence or terrorism have the potential to destabilise the rest of the country.

In the longer term, the government of Balochistan must review counterterrorism efforts across the province.

The authorities ought not to be complacent and should in fact build on whatever progress has been achieved thus far.

The people of Balochistan have seen far too much bloodshed and violence over the past few years, and all efforts must be made by the state to ensure that the horrific days of targeted killings, bomb blasts and general insecurity do not return to the province.

Published in Dawn, October 21st, 2015

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