OVER the past few days, a flurry of diplomatic activity has been taking place to try and resolve the Syrian crisis.

On Monday, the Omani foreign minister was in Damascus for talks with Bashar al-Assad to discuss ways to end the brutal Syrian civil war raging since 2011.

Meanwhile, last week major international and regional powers met in Vienna to discuss Syria; representatives from Russia, the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey convened in the Austrian capital, though the talks themselves remained inconclusive.

The primary sticking point has been the future of Mr Assad. While Russia wants the Syrian strongman to be part of any transition process, the US appears to have little patience with him. And while the international community tries to resolve the crisis around the conference table, the violence in Syria itself continues as Russia conducts its air war — now a month old — against the self-styled Islamic State and other opponents of the regime, and the US and its Gulf allies continue to support groups fighting the government in Damascus.

True, the diplomatic manoeuvres are a positive sign, but it is unlikely they will deliver results unless the US and Russia — the two principal international actors in this theatre — loosen their rigid positions.

For example, Moscow should tone down its support for Bashar al-Assad while Washington should review its calls for regime change. The fact is that a middle path is needed that can pave the way for an end to violence — over 250,000 people have been killed while more than 10 million have been displaced — and help usher in a representative set-up.

Without doubt Mr Assad has become controversial, yet a violent overthrow may cause more problems than it will solve.

The examples of the foreign overthrow of the former strongmen of Libya and Iraq are before us — after the violent removal of Muammar Qadhafi and Saddam Hussein, their respective states have struggled with chaotic conditions.

This should by no means be taken as an apologia for dictatorship; rather, what is needed in Syria is an organic, indigenous and gradual transition towards democracy.

For any chaotic, foreign-backed removal of the Assad regime may create a vacuum that can be filled by IS, or by groups that share the latter’s mediaeval ideology.

Here the foreign friends of both the Syrian regime and the opposition must play their part and convince their allies to compromise and reach a negotiated, peaceful settlement to the civil war.

Published in Dawn, October 28th, 2015

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