AS the brutal Syrian civil war grinds on, one fact seems to have dawned on the movers and shakers of the international community: unless a settlement is found, the collapse of the Syrian state will create an unimaginable security nightmare.
There are even signs that earlier rigidly held positions are loosening, if only slightly.
A number of major powers met in Vienna on Friday to try and chart a course towards ending violence in the Levant. While the Americans, Russians, Saudis and Turks have been part of earlier peace efforts, the recent meeting significantly featured Iran at the table.
Also read: Fresh elections needed in Syria, says Iran's Khamenei
Little of substance was achieved at the meeting, yet the fact that global and regional powers that have been backing opposing sides in Syria chose to discuss the issue with each other is indeed positive.
While Russia and Iran have stood by Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad, the US, Turkey and the Gulf Arabs have been arming, training and funding the opposition.
Hence if these external backers of Syria’s warring factions can come to an agreement, there is a strong likelihood that the bloodbath in the Arab country can eventually give way to normalcy.
As it is, Syria is a tangled web, where a variety of geostrategic opponents have been squaring off. This includes the Americans competing with the Russians, as well as the Saudis and Iranians crossing swords in the proxy battlefield of the Levant.
In the meantime, caught between the regime, the opposition and the ruthless, self-styled Islamic State, the Syrian people have had to face an extended nightmare. The fact that Barack Obama has authorised the deployment of US ground troops in Syria will further complicate matters; Russia has already reacted negatively to this.
Getting back to the efforts in Vienna, the international powers have proposed a ceasefire followed by the formation of a transitional government and have pledged to meet again in two weeks.
All parties need to make these proposals succeed. Russia and Iran must not make Mr Assad sacrosanct, while the US and the Gulf Arabs must not insist on regime change on their terms.
Peace in Syria will require plenty of compromises by all parties, and the goal must be to allow the Syrian people to decide their own fate in a democratic manner.
If this opportunity is lost, there are fair chances Syria will collapse further into anarchy and violence — an eventuality few would want to support.
Published in Dawn, November 2nd, 2015
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