WATER is essential for the sustenance of human life, people’s livelihoods, food security and economic growth. Lack of access to water adversely affects socioeconomic stability, which is very important in retaining national security.

Owing to a continual neglect of the water sector, the country’s water stress is mounting. Current water availability has declined to 1,100m3 per person from 5,000m3 in 1951. Internationally, anything less than 1,700m3 defines a country as a water-scarce nation.

According to forecasts, Pakistan will be become severely water scarce with less than 500m3 per capita per year by 2035.

The country is heading towards a ‘water crisis’. Ideally, a 1,000-day water supply is recommended, but the country stands at a 30-day supply position, according to the Planning Commission’s Vision 2025.

Water stresses in Pakistan are much higher as water withdrawal as a percentage of total renewable water resources is 74pc, against 34pc in India and 31pc in Afghanistan. A number of factors, including growing population, inefficient supply management and the effects of climate change, are responsible for this grave situation.

The estimated surface water availability in Pakistan ranges between 194-209 million acre feet, of which 142MAF is extracted. The average renewable water availability is 154MAF, of which 45MAF is groundwater. The Indus irrigation system has a storage capacity of only 121MAF per year — equivalent to a 30-day supply, which is very low when compared with India’s 120 days and Egypt’s 700 days.

In Pakistan, about 90pc of the annual available surface water goes for irrigation, against 80-90pc in most developing countries. Water demand is growing at an annual rate of 10pc and is projected to rise to 274MAF by 2025. Total water availability by 2025 will be 191MAF, leaving a gap of about 81MAF — two-thirds of the entire Indus River System’s current annual average flow.

By not building more water reservoirs, the country is bearing an economic loss of $30-35bn per annum, or 12-14pc of GDP. These losses are magnified by power shortages

The existing water resources are also under threat because of the untreated discharge of municipal and industrial waste into rivers. According to a WHO report, 80pc of diseases are caused by unhygienic conditions and unsafe drinking water. Unsafe water supply results in the perpetuation of poverty and death among underprivileged families. About 35pc of the country’s population lacks access to safe drinking water.

Water losses from within watercourses and between canal heads and watercourses are at one-third of the total delivered water, along with an additional loss of 25pc within farms. Poor water management translates into the irrigation of only 45pc of the cultivable land. If we simply repair and maintain the existing canal systems, it could free an estimated 76MAF of water.

The country is highly vulnerable to climate change. Rising temperatures are affecting glaciers, causing them to melt at high rates and resulting in floods in some years and water shortages in subsequent years. Pakistan was ranked as the 12th most affected country in the Global Climate Risk Index 2012.

There has been a 0.76°C average annual increase in temperature during the last 40 years, which is higher than the rate observed globally. More than 40pc of the population is at risk from natural disasters like droughts, floods and cyclones.

Owing to the devastating floods during 2010-2014, the cumulative loss to Pakistan is around $20bn, which is higher than the total foreign loans that the country has taken during this period.

Droughts have also become a regular phenomenon and are an important factor for poor economic growth. The worst drought in the last 50 years was recorded in the southern part of the country between 1998 and 2002.

The country can overcome water scarcity and food insecurity by building more water reservoirs. Economic gains from water storages are enormous. Annual water inflows in the country are 150-165MAF, whereas the water storage capacity is merely 11.55MAF.

By not building more reservoirs, we are bearing an economic loss of $30-35bn per annum, or 12-14pc of GDP. These losses are magnified by power shortages. Had we managed the water sector properly, there would have been no power shortages, as hydropower generation is a by-product of water and is cheapest when compared with other power sources.

A number of policy and strategy documents had been prepared by successive governments but no action could be taken because of provincial disputes over water rights and priorities. The Kalabagh Dam is one such example.

In the 1990s, Planning Commission experts had identified 87 sizeable water and power projects. All of them were non-controversial, but nothing has been done about them. Instead, the government decided to reduce its water-development spending from Rs46bn in 2014-15 to Rs30bn in 2015-16.

The government seriously needs to review its priorities to ensure water security.

The writer is an advisor at the Centre for Policy Studies, COMSATS, Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, December 7th, 2015