KARACHI: Pakistan has issues with almost all its neighbours, a situation which is unsustainable. Pakistan has to workz with its neighbours, especially Afghanistan and India, as this is the only way out. And it has the potential to do so but the establishment refuses to abandon its dealings with non-state actors. Officially it says one thing but then does the exact opposite.

These views were bluntly put forth by Dr Dieter Reetz, associate professor of political science at Free University of Berlin, during a lecture titled ‘Pakistan between Central and South Asia: bridge or a stumbling block?’ on Monday at Karachi University’s Faculty of Social Sciences.

He began his lecture by discussing the changing situation in the region after the withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan. “There is reordering of the situation for the region even though the withdrawal is not yet complete. One can view it as a remnant of the Cold War where global actors are intervening and deciding on how to arrange a particular security paradigm. After the withdrawal, if it completes, sooner or later, the repercussions will be entirely regional. Henceforth, the responsibilities will also be regional. This will be a new scenario where there will be no more excuses; no longer can the stakeholders blame the Americans or anybody else but the regional players will have to themselves find arrangements to deal with it.”

Pakistan in this scenario plays a critical role, Dr Reetz emphasised. “On the one side it has strategic potential and on the other it also poses strategic risks.”

By potential, he explained, Pakistan offers a lot in terms of connectivity because of its geographical location. As for risks, he explained: “The benefits of this location do not come automatically, unless Pakistan invokes or mobilises them. They cannot come just by resting on the location itself. It is because of this and its interaction with its neighbours that Pakistan is seen as a threat or a promise.”

In the current situation where Pakistan has issues with almost all of its neighbours, such a situation is unsustainable. This is the ground reality. Finding a regional solution is the only alternative which means Pakistan has to work with its neighbours by creating a political and cultural capital.

Dr Reetz kept stressing that this is the only way out. “There is no alternative to making amends with your neighbours otherwise Pakistan will be unable to handle a particular situation.”

He gave the example of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) which offered new ways of cooperation between India and Pakistan. “For instance, both India and Pakistan could participate in military manoeuvres, hypothetically at least.” This means they would not fight against each other and be on the same page in a particular setting because the SCO does hold joint military manoeuvres with its members.

Pakistan, India & Afghanistan

His lecture also dwelled on the concerns of Pakistan with India in relation to Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s relations with non-state actors in Afghanistan.

“Pakistan will have to deal with the fallout of the Afghan situation. The negotiations with the Ashraf Ghani government have not been easy. There was supposed to be a new beginning but it is stuck and it seems difficult to solve. Insurgents are themselves fragmented and are not ready to give concessions to the Pakistani or the Afghan government as every group is hoping to negotiate from a position of imagined strength after the withdrawal of the troops is completed. The increasing Daesh [the militant Islamic State group] reference as a new marketing tool and as a new tool to get money complicates the picture further.”

But then there is the establishment in Pakistan which has its own hesitations and own history of dealing with the situation. Recalling a conference which Dr Reetz recently attended in Islamabad, he said he was surprised to hear very conservative pronouncements by a former general who said: “Pakistan is not going to spoil its capital with any of the groups in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs to guard its interests there.” From this he inferred all options, including non-state actors, to remain on the table.

“This is regardless of official pronouncements, of doing away with distinctions between good and bad terrorists. The ambivalence in Pakistan politics continues. Doing one thing and doing another.”

According to the political science professor, India sees no alternative but to strengthen its relations with Afghanistan to keep leverage. “It cannot forgo its relations with Afghanistan in the current scenario especially because post-Taliban leadership had lived for long in India and was supported by India.”

He proposed that Pakistan include the perspective of other countries which is especially important in the case of India. In Pakistan there is a perception that India is an existential threat to Pakistan, especially under Modi. But Pakistan needs to remember that for India, Pakistan is only one factor. “They see it [Pakistan] as a nuisance factor but not necessarily of strategic importance.”

Also, many people in India are dying due to reasons that are completely unrelated to Pakistan. He was referring to the Naxalite insurgency and the conflicts in its eastern parts. “It has too many issues on its plate that it does not want to deal with [Pakistan].”

“From an Indian point of view, Pakistan has worked with non-state actors in interventions in [India-held] Kashmir for many years. Good relations with Congress-led government have not stopped Pakistan from doing that.

“Sooner or later an Indian government was going to put this on the table and say ‘we must stop this now or never’. And the BJP government, because it got a strong majority in the parliament, thought this is a moment when it can do so because they feel strong economically and politically.”

But Dr Reetz understood that the Modi government is not doing this in a clever way and “has weakened the civil government in Pakistan and strengthened its army establishment.”

Published in Dawn, December 8th, 2015