A FORMAL agreement on the CASA-1000 project was signed between Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan and Pakistan on November 23 in Istanbul. The project entitles Pakistan to receive 1,000MW of 1,300MW from the Central Asian states, with the remaining going to Afghanistan.

However, Kabul has agreed to give half of its share (150MW) under the project to Pakistan and to not charge any transit fee for the transmission of this amount of electricity through power lines passing through its territory. And Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said Islamabad was ready to purchase the remaining 150MW of Afghanistan’s share if that country did not require it.

Meanwhile, Pakistan will be paying a transit fee of 1.25 cents per Kwh to its neighbour for the import of the original 1,000MW under the CASA project.

More than 90pc of the territory of the hydroelectricity-exporting Central Asian states is covered with mountains

However, the import of electricity from the Central Asian states looks problematic despite the optimism of the relevant parties, including Pakistan.

As Gilgit-Baltistan is situated in the upper mountainous region, the transmission line will have to pass through the highly difficult ranges of Wakhan and Hindu Kush, where heavy snowfalls are common, quite often coupled with landslides and earthquakes.

More than 90pc of the territory of Central Asian hydroelectricity exporting countries is covered with mountains.

The 1,500kV single-circuit transmission line is a venture in which we have no experience. The proposed triple 500kV single-circuit transmission line (SCTL) will require sub-stations at appropriate distances, apart from three picking centres. The cost thus incurred in domestic and foreign currency will be exorbitant.

The switch gears, breakers, transformers, control devices, insulators etc will have to be imported. And Pakistan has no expertise in maintaining supply through ultra high voltage lines (UHVTL). To keep this line in order, heavy recurring expenditure would be required for the transmission of hydroelectricity, which will ultimately require high tariffs for end-users.

Because of inductive reactance and capacitive reactors, regulatory problems also cannot be ruled out. In the absence of proper design, radio interference and communication interference are possible.

In the case of UHVTL, there will be a great setback as there will be no alternative line in case of an emergency. A UHVTL is more costly than a 500KV SCTL Meanwhile, the generation of hydroelectricity at the power houses is likely to come down during heavy snowfalls.

Besides, the transmission lines between Kirgizstan-Pakistan and Tajikistan-Pakistan will be exposed to inclement weather and thus cause significant line losses; these will be several times higher than those generally incurred during fair weather. High corona losses are also expected in these circumstances.

The project, particularly the part that will go through the Wakhan corridor, will be vulnerable to geographical and climatic factors. The project will pass through Afghanistan, bordering the Uighur autonomous region of the Peoples Republic of China and India. Any act of sabotage by anti-Pakistan, anti-Afghanistan or anti-Central Asian states will upset things.

Afghanistan will charge a fee of 1.25 cents per kWh for the 1,000MW transmission line that passes through its territory, while the price to be paid to the exporters of hydroelectricity will be five cents. It will be a costly affair for Pakistan since the infrastructure for the transmission of the imported power does not currently exist here.

In my opinion, instead of importing hydroelectricity from Central Asian states, we should depend on our own power generation. Pakistan has an 80,000MW generation potential, of which 50,000MW is in Gilgit-Baltistan and 30,000MW in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The writer is former deputy director general, Rural Energy Technology Department, Pakistan Council of Renewable Energy Technologies

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, December 28th, 2015