WHAT does the crystal ball say about the year 2016 for political parties in India? It is important because there will be a mini general election with five states going for assembly polls. Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puduchery voters will decide who will rule them but there are parties like the Janata Dal (United), Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) that will formulate their own strategies politically.

For instance, after the humiliating defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the year 2015 gave the Congress a glimmer of hope with success in Bihar polls. There are indications that Rahul Gandhi may take over the reins in 2016 but will he be able to steer the party to success? The Gandhis also have the legal hurdle of facing the National Herald case. The major challenge is of course the ensuing assembly polls. Will the party be able to stitch together a coalition or join a winning combination? The Congress is ruling in Kerala and Assam. So far the predictions are that it may lose both states.

The silver lining is that the morale of the Congress workers is high. It has also done well in Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Chandigarh and some other states in local body polls. However, it has to work out a new strategy to remain relevant. The party has to contend with anti-incumbency in Assam where Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is bidding for power for the fourth time in a row. However, the opposition has to work out its arithmetic to throw out Gogoi.

In Kerala, the pattern so far has been that the United Democratic Front (UDF) party and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) alternate and it is now the turn of the LDF. The Congress can do better if it repeats its Bihar strategy and goes piggy back riding on Trinamool Congress in West Bengal where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is poised to return for a second time in view of the weak opposition. Her political strategy is to stop the Congress and the Left coming together and also check the rise of the BJP in the state.

As for Tamil Nadu, Chief Minister Jayalalitha was all set to come back before the devastating floods last month but her return now depends on her own arithmetic and whether she will build up a coalition as also how quickly she gets the rehabilitation work done. She too has a weak opposition but the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is trying to build up its own coalition and may tie up with the Congress. DMK chief Karunanidhi has also invited the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam chief Vijayakant to join the coalition. In Puduchery, the ruling NR Congress may continue.

The year 2015 was one of setbacks for the BJP. It began with the humiliating defeat in Delhi and ended with the Bihar defeat and the DDCA controversy with the BJP MP Kirti Azad accusing one of its most poweful leaders Arun Jaitley of irregularities. The chinks became evident with senior leaders like LK Advani, MM Joshi and Yashwant Sinha taking on the present BJP leadership. The challenge before the party is to improve its performance in the poll bound states. There is a chance of winning Assam with the right coalition and of improving in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The BJP does not have a strong organisation in any of these states or strong state leaders.

Will Amit Shah get a second term in the shadow of the poll debacles in both Delhi and Bihar? Even if he continues the challenge is huge because he will not have any breathing space with the UP elections scheduled for 2017. On the ground, a major challenge will be implementation of Modi’s pet schemes and improving the economy.

The prime minister has to concentrate on governance and restore the credibility of his leadership by pushing reforms through executive orders. The RSS has given him a free hand these past one and a half years but the time to deliver has come for Modi.

As for the erstwhile Janata Parivar which is brimming with confidence after the success of Bihar, the major question is whether there will be a merger or will they continue as of now. The Samajwadi Party (SP) had already severed its connection during the Bihar poll by going it alone. However, it may patch up with the rest for the UP elections next year where the ruling SP needs the support of others. Secondly one has to see whether Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad Yadav and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar can work together. The Parivar, if it becomes a nucleus for anti-BJP forces can emerge as a third alternative but it is too soon to predict. The SP and the BSP have already started focusing on the assembly polls. It all depends on the arithmetic and who aligns with whom. The BJP too has to perform in UP where it did very well in the 2014 polls.

The new entrant in the political scene is the Aam Admi Party (AAP) which is trying to expand in states like Punjab. It will have its presence in the Rajya Sabha with three members. The AAP has internal as well as external problems. Internally, the cracks have already appeared after party chief Arvind Kejriwal got rid of leaders like Prashant Bhushan and Yogendra Yadav. He has not been able to get a grip on the administration as he is fighting with the Centre, bureaucrats, media and whoever comes in his way. At least by next year the AAP has to show it is a party of governance.

In all probability, the new year will not be very good for the national parties while the regional parties may perform better.

The Statesman/India

Published in Dawn, January 6th, 2016