WE don’t know how many we are: 200 million? 180 million? 160 million? Such a basic question remains unanswered. Why? Because successive governments have found one reason or the other to delay the census — the population count which is supposed to be held every 10 years, was last conducted in 1998.

Despite this delay, there still appears to be no hurry on the part of the government to conduct the exercise that is required under the Constitution and that determines the share of the federating units of National Assembly seats, the National Finance Commission award and the provincial quota for federal jobs; besides, it gives a full and reliable picture of population for planning and development purposes.

The Council of Common Interests (CCI) had decided in March 2015 that the house and head counts — the two components of a census — would be undertaken simultaneously in March this year. However, recent media reports suggest that the census might not be possible as stipulated due to the unavailability of army personnel, though an official announcement has yet to come. Not holding the census would mean the status quo would remain on delimitation, the NFC formula, federal jobs quota, etc.

This does not augur well, particularly for the general elections due in 2018 as they would be held on constituencies delimited in 2002 on the basis of the census in 1998. Since then, demographics across and within the federating units have changed drastically. The country’s population, according to the 1998 census, was 132,352,279. However, according to the government’s estimates, the population has increased by 42.9pc nationally since 1998 with the population of Punjab increasing by 40.9pc, Islamabad Capital Territory by 71.7pc, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by 48.7pc, Sindh by 56.1pc and Balochistan by 54.2pc.

Discrepancies in voter population across and within provinces reinforce the need for new delimitation.

When this data is discerned for electoral purposes, it clearly establishes a relatively increased proportion of seats for smaller provinces in the National Assembly in accordance with Articles 51(3) and (5) of the Constitution.

The population estimates suggest 36 seats in the National Assembly for KP as compared to the existing 35; 143 for Punjab as compared to the existing 148; and 65 for Sindh as compared to the existing 61. The share of Balochistan and Islamabad may remain the same. This estimation discounts the National Assembly seats and population for Fata and the frontier regions as their estimates were not available. The accurate count of people, therefore, becomes crucial in determining the share of provinces in the National Assembly and the districts in provincial assemblies and giving them representation that truly reflects their population.

However, delimitation can only be conducted after a census, as maintained by the Election Commission of Pakistan. The general election in 2018, if one goes by the ECP position, will be held on existing delimitations. But this will compromise the spirit of representation as is evident in the 2013 voter statistics, which are considered reliable and accurate and also indicative of the population count in constituencies and districts. Serious discrepancies in voter population across and within provinces only reinforce the need for fresh delimitation.

Take the example of Haripur district in KP with one NA seat (NA-19), the constituency with the largest number of voters. It had 453,508 registered voters in 2002. The voter population grew to 573,196 in 2015. If the voter population in Haripur is compared with the voter population in other districts in Hazara division, stark disparities come to the fore.

A total of 675,189 voters in Abbottabad elect two National Assembly members; 807,549 voters in Manshera-Torghar also elect two National Assembly members; and 204,979 voters in Battagram elect one member. But when Haripur is compared with districts in KP outside Hazara division, its underrepresentation appears even starker. For instance, only 129,028 voters in Kohistan get to elect one member.

These discrepancies are even more disturbing elsewhere in KP. As many as 981,820 voters have only two members to elect in Swat as compared to 1,393,148 voters in Peshawar who elect four members and 987,122 voters in Mardan who elect three members.

The situation in the other provinces is no different. In Rawalpindi, 2,645,603 voters elect seven National Assembly members. Within Rawalpindi, NA-56 and NA-52 have 288,423 voters and 455,187 voters, respectively, indicating anomalies in delimitation. However, people in Rawalpindi district are underrepresented as compared to those in Faisalabad, where 3,623,359 voters elect 11 members — on an average 377,943 voters in Rawalpindi elect one member as compared to 329,396 voters in Faisalabad. But most questionable are three constituencies in Narowal, where an average of only 246,126 voters elect a member. Pakpattan, with three seats, is also an outlier with only around 274,000 voters electing one member.

When the average voter population of 41 constituencies in Sindh other than Karachi is analysed, the results are shocking. On an average, 287,734 voters elect one member to these seats. However, 385,952 voters, on an average, elect one member to each of 20 National Assembly seats allocated to Karachi. Karachi is underrepresented as compared to districts in the rest of the province.

While Balochistan has the lowest average of voters per constituency ie 238,427, as many as 3,337,981 voters in Balochistan appear to be underrepresented when compared with Fata, where 1,622,247 voters elect 11 members. Some of the constituencies in Balochistan span more than 60,000 square kilometres.

While a decision to undertake the census is still pending, the ECP may look into Section 10A of the Delimitation of Constituencies Act 1974, which empowers it to delimit constituencies at any time. Under the same provision, the ECP had delimited three National Assembly and eight provincial constituencies in Karachi before the 2013 election.

The same principle may be employed to at least fix the skewed nature of constituencies across Pakistan and protect the spirit of equal representation as a prerequisite for free and fair elections in 2018.

The writer works with the Free and Fair Election Network.

Published in Dawn, February 23rd, 2016