THE BJP is hoping that after a tough political 2015, with humiliating defeats in the Delhi and Bihar Assembly polls and inroads made by the Congress in Gujarat and Chhattisgarh municipal polls, the 2016 assembly elections could reverse its fortunes and the waning Modi magic might revive. The party is also preparing for the UP and Punjab polls scheduled for next year.

The immediate concern is a good performance in the ongoing assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Assam and Kerala. The difficulty is that it is not ruling in any of these states going for polls while the Congress rules in Assam and Kerala. The BJP’s organisational strength is also minimal except in Assam.

The BJP has five MLAs (member of legislative assembly) in Assam and it opened its account in West Bengal by winning a seat in the by-polls held in 2014. It has never won a seat in Kerala despite having the highest number of RSS shakhas (branches) in the state and has no representation in the Tamil Nadu assembly although it won a Lok Sabha seat. Currently the BJP has emerged as number one in Assam, number three in West Bengal, has overtaken CPI-M (Communist Party of India-Marxist) to become number three in Kerala and jumped to the third position in Tamil Nadu ahead of the Congress. This inching forward is in line with its expansion plans.

While the BJP has not much presence in any of these states, Assam is the only one where it can hope to lead or form the government. The party put up a creditable performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when it got a 36 per cent vote share and won seven of the 14 Lok Sabha seats. Can the BJP repeat this performance?

It is little wonder the saffron party is concentrating on Assam. The BJP has tied up with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodo party to strengthen its arithmetic hoping to cross the 34 per cent vote share mark. The Congress too has aligned with smaller parties like the splinter Bodo group and United People’s party. However, the Congress, which is already facing strong anti-incumbency as Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is seeking votes for a fourth consecutive term, its success is doubtful and at best it can hope for a hung assembly. In that case it hopes to combine with the AIUDF (All India United Front) to form the government but there are too many ifs and buts.

The BJP has imported dissident Congress leader Hemanta Biswa Sarma and a former AGP leader Sarbananda Sonowal who has been named as the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate. Added to that is the influence of AGP leader Prafulla Kumar Mohanta who is an alliance partner. The BJP is betting on these three leaders plus the Modi magic. The challenge for the BJP is to see that the rebel candidates do not spoil their game plan and also at the ground level the BJP, AGP and the Bodo party work together to take advantage of anti-Congress sentiments.

The second is the danger of the polarisation of the 34 per cent Muslim votes versus the Hindu votes in Assam. The BJP has to ensure that there is no division of the Hindu votes, which is difficult. Sarma and Sonowal are talking of a secular state to attract even the Muslims. With BJP weak in lower Assam, where the AIUDF is expected to do well, the BJP-alliance will need to win a large number of seats in upper Assam, the area where it gained in the Lok Sabha polls. Moreover, the BJP and the AGP are targeting the same sections of Assamese by promising to contain illegal migration.

The difficulty for the BJP is the absence of a strong Modi wave, which helped the party to emerge as the single largest in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll. Assam had voted for him in a huge way.

Secondly, these are assembly elections and not the Lok Sabha polls and the people vote on local issues. Modi campaigned extensively in both Bihar and Delhi but could not perform in the same way as he did in 2014. Moreover, Modi has not fulfilled his election promises about illegal migration and mitigation of problems of tea plantation workers who matter in 35 constituencies.

Thirdly, and across the poll-bound states, the BJP has no strong state-level leaders except in Assam where it has projected Sonowal. Other states have no leaders to match the charismatic Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalitha, Achutanandan or Vijayan.

Fourthly, the BJP has no organisational structure in any of these states. However, the party wants to slowly make its presence felt in the north-east — first with Arunachal Pradesh and now with Assam.

Since it has no presence in these five states whatever gains it achieves would be to its advantage. An improved performance would mean revival of the Modi magic. If it can emerge as the largest coalition or even form the government in Assam it would be a feather in its cap. Also, if it can consolidate its position in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu and also open its account in Kerala it would go a long way in its expansion plans. No doubt the BJP has overtaken the Congress in emerging as the biggest party in the country claiming eight crore members. Its ambitious expansion plans can work only if it can prove to have a pan-national presence and not be a party limited to the northern part of the country. These assembly elections will be a litmus test in this regard.

—The Statesman / India

Published in Dawn, April 13th, 2016