“Climate change is a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing pressures as well as presenting new challenges to security in fragile societies,” explained Lt Gen Tariq Waseem Ghazi at a lecture given at the Heinrich Boll Foundation in Islamabad two years ago on the topic of “climate change and security”. The retired general is now working for the Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change (GMACCC), which was set up in 2009 as a global network of serving and retired military officers to highlight the potential security implications of a changing climate and to advocate action, including by the military, to minimise the risks.

Mr Ghazi, who was defence secretary to the government of Pakistan from 2005-2007 has co-authored a report entitled Climate Change and Security in South Asia, Cooperating for Peace along with retired Maj Gen A.N.M. Muniruzzaman of Bangladesh, and retired Air Marshall A.K. Singh of India. All three high ranking and now retired military personnel recommend that the region’s leaders strengthen cooperation to reduce the potential for widespread human suffering and further instability. Rising temperatures, floods and irregular rain patterns are all expected to hit Pakistan, Bangladesh and India hard in the coming years, which could undermine peace and security in the region.

Their report was released this past week at The Hague in the Netherlands. It was published for the GMACCC by the Institute for Environmental Security with the support of the European Climate Foundation. The report calls for better data collection and sharing to inform policies to prevent climate risks leading to conflict, humanitarian crises and the spread of extremism by groups that exploit opportunities in times of crises. All three authors agree that: “climate change could destabilise the South Asian region, unless steps are taken to address the threat posed by a warming, resource-scarce world”.

Rising temperatures, floods and irregular rain patterns are expected to hit Pakistan, Bangladesh and India hard in the coming years, which could undermine peace and security in the region

In the South Asian region, scientists say there is going to be climate-induced degradation of the water resources, due to a growing population and the shrinking of glaciers. Then there is the issue of food security, which particularly affects the poor who have to spend most of their income on food. High food prices in the past have led to riots and climate change will increase the strain on food prices. Experts say there will be further drops in crop yields across India and Pakistan.

South Asian countries are also becoming more vulnerable to disasters like floods, particularly those with coastal areas where there is an increased risk of tropical storms. Germanwatch, a NGO that publishes an annual Global Risk Index of countries most vulnerable to climate related disasters, has been listing Pakistan in its top 10 since 2010. The indices compare loss of lives, losses in percentage of GDP, etc. Bangladesh heads the list for the longer-term index of the past 20 years.

The authors would like to see all three countries proactively collaborate on a joint strategy to deal with climate refugees. During the super floods of 2010, millions of people were displaced in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan and climate experts say such “unprecedented floods” could become a regular occurrence in the near future. For Mr Muniruzzaman, the potential threat for violent conflict in Bangladesh due to climate change is clear since his country faces the threat of migration caused by the sea engulfing low lying coastal areas. Around 35-40 million climate refugees are projected as the sea level rises. As numbers increase, there will be trans-boundary migration as well and the large-scale migration will cause a massive problem as India has unilaterally fenced the border with Bangladesh. In his view, future climate refugees will probably be shot for trying to cross over into India as Bangladesh will not be able to absorb so many refugees into its overcrowded towns and cities.

The authors would also like to see regional cooperation on water sharing, which they feel is the “key to peace and stability in South Asia”. Trans-boundary agreements like the Indus Water Treaty [inked in 1960], which have been “effective” in the past, need to be revisited “to address new challenges from effects of activities in the watershed of the Tibetan plateau”. They also call for the de-militarisation of the Siachen glacier and advocate “continuous dialogue” to discuss common climate change issues and impacts more vigorously.

According to Mr A.N.M. Muniruzzaman, “While South Asia has a long history of regional instability, the challenge of addressing climate change actually represents an opportunity to catalyse long term peace in the region through continuous dialogue and co-operation. If South Asia succeeds in joining forces against this common and urgent challenge, it would be a model for other parts of the world.”

One of the key messages of the report is that military and humanitarian organisations will need forward-looking strategies to deal with the impacts of climate change, especially climate induced disasters such as floods and food shortages. South Asian armies, they say, “will need to develop effective long-term climate adaptation and mitigation strategies to ensure damage control, quick relief and effective cooperation to restore/preserve stable conditions”. According to Lt Gen Ghazi, “South Asia is an example of a region where climate impacts are already affecting security — other countries would benefit from watching closely, and moving to integrate climate change in their security planning. If addressed jointly across borders, we can increase stability and save lives, for example by coordinating in response to natural disasters and water shortages. This report is about militaries cooperating for peace.”

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, June 12th, 2016