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If body language is the essence of pop diplomacy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the unrivalled star of the international circuit. In the two years since he assumed office, the BJP strongman has made the hugging of foreign leaders his stock in trade. It has served to establish ever so powerfully with his constituency, Modi’s familiarity with global leaders and BJP India’s success in foreign relations.
However discomfiting some of those close embraces of the Modi kind may have turned out, for his delirious supporters at home and abroad — this is particularly true of the large non-resident Indian enclaves in the US and elsewhere — the full body hugs are proof enough that India has finally arrived on the global stage after long years in the wilderness.
Such is the hold of this on the popular imagination that Modi’s working visit to Washington last week, his fourth trip to the US since taking office in May 2014, has precluded an objective assessment of India’s relations with the US, especially after an overly hyped address to the joint sitting of the US Congress.
In the current milieu which encourages uncritical praise of the leader along with an obliteration of the past, it is not politic to recall that Rajiv Gandhi as “a young prime minister with a dream” had also received a standing ovation in June 1985 when he charmed American lawmakers with a witty and polished performance that dwelt on history, technology and the promise of a shared future for the two democracies.
An address to the US Congress is, of course, useful since it could play an important role in shaping American foreign policy. But, however wildly successful such interactions may be, they are but a sideshow to the nitty gritty of successfully managing relations with the world’s most powerful country. It’s essential to remember that the current visit was virtually thrust on the US which offered India a working visit in place of the ‘state visit’ that it had sought although uninformed opinion here has hyped it as another instance of Modi’s special equation with “friend Barack”.
Modi’s foreign jaunts are high on political theatre but have produced few outcomes of substance.
What does Modi have to show for his obsession with the US which has come at the cost of strained ties with China? The Modi regime’s marked American ‘tilt’, going way beyond the previous Congress-led government’s embrace of Washington, has sent the wrong signal to Beijing, starting with the Indo-US Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean issued during Obama’s visit to India in January 2015. A fresh ‘provocation’ has been India’s decision to despatch four naval vessels to the South China Sea for long deployment. Currently, its vessels are taking part in Exercise Malabar with the US Navy and the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force.
The Washington jamboree though has other uses. It has helped to deflect attention from the BJP regime’s mangled relations with its neighbours, notably with Nepal, on account of its ultranationalist agenda. (An account of Modi’s diplomatic fiasco in the neighbourhood would require a separate analysis.) But the big question is whether the dalliance with the US has paid dividends for India. Has the India-US love affair bloomed further from the time when a bashful Manmohan Singh was warmly embraced by Obama?
A good starting point would be an analysis of the joint statement signed by then prime minister Manmohan Singh and President Barack Obama in November 2010. Like many such documents it was tediously long and comprehensive in its coverage of issues of mutual interest. Compare that with the equally long statement issued at the end of a working lunch by Obama and Modi and it is difficult to spot the points of progress on the India-US global strategic partnership nearly six years later.
Take the membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), India’s most important quest. There is misplaced emphasis on the US role in getting India admitted into the NSG although it’s well known such a decision can only be arrived at by consensus. To take comfort in Obama’s bland reiteration of US backing for India that he put on record in 2010 is a wilful deception. True, he has called on other members of the 48-nation cartel which controls trade in nuclear technology to support India’s application when it comes up at the plenary meeting later this month but this is unlikely to take Delhi any closer to its Holy Grail.
Although official sources have pointed out that Modi is not banking on the US alone but had sought endorsement from Switzerland and Mexico during his current five-nation hop, NSG is as elusive as ever. The panicked reaction in Islamabad to US support for India ignores a vital fact. NSG was set up in 1974 in the wake of India’s nuclear test to prevent it from making further progress in acquiring nuclear weapons.
A basic condition for joining NSG is that members have to be signatories to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. At a briefing session held in Islamabad with the diplomatic missions of NSG countries, Tasnim Aslam, head of the UN desk at the Foreign Office, had urged them to adopt an objective and non-discriminatory criteria for non-NPT states, but in the words of a seasoned diplomat, both India and Pakistan are chasing a mirage.
Perhaps, there is something to be said for India’s imminent membership of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) which is expected to pave the way for increased defence trade and technology transfer between India and the US. But it is pure coincidence that it came about during Modi’s visit.
Experts have pointed out that Italy, which had held up its approval for India’s accession to MTCR on account of the Italian marines issue — two marines have been charged with killing two Kerala fishermen — did not file a formal objection because Delhi had decided to let them go home last month. If India is portraying MTCR — which restricts the weight and range of missiles — as a precursor to NSG, there are few takers for this line.
On balance, it appears that the biggest gain for India is that it has been recognised as a “major defence partner” of the US with an understanding that the two countries would help each other in defence activity related to aircraft carriers. According to India’s Ministry of External Affairs, such cooperation will be through an “Information Exchange Annex” between the Pentagon and the Indian defence ministry. What this amounts to no one is clear at the moment. However, we have another hug to boast of: more forceful and all-enveloping.
The writer is a journalist based in New Delhi.
Published in Dawn, June 13th, 2016
