HE may provoke strong disdain among important voting blocs, but Donald Trump is now in a two-horse race. With the potential of more Hillary e-mail scandals to come, not to mention Trump’s track record of proving pundits wrong, he has a chance of winning. So what would Donald Trump, as opposed to Hillary Clinton, in the White House mean for Pakistan?

Back in 2008, Nawaz Sharif privately expressed his support for Hillary as Democratic nominee — instead of Obama — for the simple reason that he knew her and got on with her. Presumably, he feels the same way this time round. But how will the army see it? And, more broadly, how should the rest of Pakistan assess the implications of who sits in the Oval Office for the next four years?

Hillary Clinton’s policies are clear enough. She has seen the ups and downs of the relationship between Islamabad and Washington over two decades. In line with mainstream Washington opinion, she will want to reduce aid to Pakistan unless there are significant Pakistani concessions on the Afghan Taliban. A Clinton White House would make the relationship between the US and Pakistan more transparently transactional.

What would an America under Trump mean for Pakistan?

It is not a great scenario from Pakistan’s point of view. Fewer funds will arrive and the pressure to ‘do more’ will become stronger. But Pakistan’s generals have long experience of squeezing funds out of the United States’ coffers and even if that task gets a little tougher over the next four years, they will at least be on familiar territory. A Clinton presidency won’t be easy for Pakistan but it will, in a sense, be business as usual.

So what of Trump? Given the fluidity of his policy positions it’s difficult to know what ideas he would stick with. On the one hand he tweeted: “When will Pakistan apologise to us for providing safe sanctuary to Osama Bin Laden for 6 years?! Some ally.” Against that he has expressed concern about cutting Pakistan off. “Pakistan is semi unstable. We don’t want to see total instability,” he said in April. “We have a little bit of a good relationship. I think I’d try to keep it.” He added that while such willingness to keep aid flowing to Pakistan went against the grain, he feared that if the US cut the flow of money the country might: “go on the other side of the ledger and that could really be a disaster”.

Given his admiration of strong nationalist leaders such as Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi, there are reasons to think that he would not just tilt towards India but bend over backwards to build a stronger relationship with Delhi. Trump has warned that Pakistan: “could go rogue”. He went on to say: “India is the check to Pakistan. They have their own nukes and their own army and I would start talking at that level very, very quickly.”

However, Trump’s speeches have also suggested he remains uncertain about India. He has complained about American jobs being outsourced to Indian call centres and even mimicked some of those call centre employees. But he has praised the country’s economic growth and expressed a desire to do business with India. Even if Trump’s political instincts tempt him to align himself with Delhi, his isolationism would lead him to protect the US economy from Indian exports.

It’s worth noting that some Hindu nationalists are highly enthusiastic about Donald Trump and, in particular, his hostility towards Muslims. Vishnu Gupta, leader of a hard-line group Hindu Sena, recently organised a ceremony in Delhi with a giant picture of Trump set up amidst the incense. Offerings were made to bring Trump good fortune. “He’s our hero,” Gupta said. “We are praying for Trump because … he’s the only man who can put an end to Islamic terrorism.”

It all suggests a Trump White House might be more similar to a Clinton one than many would expect. Under both candidates, even if the aid conditionalities get tougher and the money flows smaller, US funds will still be there for the taking. Having said that, Trump might pull US troops out of Afghanistan quicker than Clinton. That, in turn, would increase Afghan instability and give a boost to the Afghan Taliban forces.

But having said all that, there is still the issue of travel restrictions. Pakistanis have long complained about the discrimination they face when trying to get into the US. Even if Trump significantly waters down his pledges on banning Muslims, the difficulties Pakistanis face getting into the United States would increase markedly if Trump won. In the end, from the point of view of Pakistan, the main issue at stake when Americans cast their ballots on Nov 8 may come down to the ease — or difficulty — of obtaining a US visa.

The writer is a British journalist and author of Pakistan: Eye of the Storm.

Published in Dawn, June 23rd, 2016