Nestling amid the opinion polls before Thursday’s EU referendum in the UK was a set of results that should worry businesses everywhere.
YouGov, a polling company, asked people how much they trusted the EU views of well-known business people, economists and various national and international bodies.
The results were not great. Only 37pc of those questioned said they trusted people from well-known businesses, while 43pc said they did not trust them.
Economists did only a little better: they were trusted by 38pc and mistrusted by 39pc.
Few people trusted think-tanks, the International Monetary Fund or the Bank of England. Only 36pc of those questioned trusted the BoE; 45pc mistrusted it.
Those who planned to vote ‘remain’ actually trusted big business quite a bit.... Among those who planned to vote ‘leave’, the position was almost exactly reversed
None of this is surprising. Trust in business, finance and anyone who has anything to do with either has been low since the 2008 financial crisis and has sunk because of huge pay differences, the Libor scandal and Volkswagen’s cheating on emission tests.
But there was a riveting additional feature to these results, which emerged when the pollsters grouped people by how they planned to vote in the referendum.
Those who planned to vote ‘remain’ actually trusted big business quite a bit. 55pc of remainers trusted business leaders, against 30pc of remainers who did not.
Among those who planned to vote ‘leave’, the position was almost exactly reversed: 27pc trusted senior business leaders whereas 55pc did not.
Similar splits appeared on the other questions. An impressive 63pc of remainers trusted economists. Only 21pc of Leavers did.
More than 60pc of remainers trusted international bodies such as the IMF and the UN. Only 10pc of Leavers trusted them.
61pc of remainers trusted the Bank of England; 19pc of Leavers did.
Benjamin Disraeli, a 19th century prime minister, wrote of ‘two nations between whom there is no intercourse and no sympathy; who are as ignorant of each other’s habits, thoughts, and feelings, as if they were dwellers in different zones, or inhabitants of different planets’.
He was speaking of the rich and poor, but there are two nations in this poll too: one that largely trusts business, economists and international experts and one that does not believe a word they say.
Some of these results may be the direct outcome of the referendum. The Bank of England and the IMF warned of the dangers of an out vote and many Leavers saw them as partisan.
But there was the same divide when people were asked about experts who did not have much to do with this week’s voting. Nearly 70pc of remainers trusted academics, for example, compared with 26pc of leavers.
The two nations of trusters and non-trusters may also be specific to the UK, although that is unlikely. There is the same disenchantment with establishment figures in the US and in most of Europe. If these results are replicated elsewhere, they pose a real problem for business leaders. Many have been worrying about how to win back the trust they have lost. It is not as simple as that. Half of society does still trust them. But the other half has stopped listening.
This means that winning back society’s trust, which is vital if business and finance are to avoid further intrusive regulation from government (and from the EU), requires a different approach to each of these two nations.
The first, the trusting nation, is already largely on the side of business. Avoidance of misbehaviour over a few years is all that is needed to keep it that way.
The second, the untrusting nation, will be far harder to win over. Supporting local communities, their facilities and their schools will help. But many in the non-trusting nation have suffered from companies moving their operations abroad, from employers moving staff on to less secure contracts or from incomers willing to do their jobs for less pay.
Whatever the outcome of the UK referendum, there are large numbers of people who are alienated, mistrustful and disbelieving.
The only consolation for business is that there are people even less trusted than they are. Both nations, the poll found, heartily mistrust journalists.
Twitter: @Skapinker
Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, June 27th, 2016
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