KARACHI: As heavy rains have been forecast to begin this week with the early onset of monsoon this year, the meteorological department also predicts ‘urban flooding’ in Karachi and Hyderabad in the wake of 10 to 20 per cent more than average rainfall and ‘poor’ drainage infrastructure of the two cities.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) recently released a weather report of the country titled ‘Outlook for Summer Monsoon 2016’ which though mainly focuses upcountry situation under heavy rains from this week, it also warns of ‘more than average rainfall’ in Sindh that would mainly affect Karachi and Hyderabad.

“The report gives overall weather predictions in the country and obviously the forecast includes Sindh,” said Ghulam Rasool, director general of the PMD.

“When it says urban flooding, the report mainly refers to cities like Karachi and Hyderabad in Sindh. Like other parts of the country, these two cities will also receive more than average rainfall this season,” he said.

The report says that prevailing oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate good summer rainfall ahead. “Based on statistical and dynamical downscaling of global circulation models, outlook for the season is prepared at 80 per cent confidence level for planning purposes,” says the report.

“Some extreme rainfall events are likely to occur in the catchment areas of major rivers and other parts of the country which may cause floods. Some heavy downpour events may produce urban flooding in big cities,” it says.

Despite fears of urban flooding with monsoon set to begin this week, the Karachi Metropolitan Corporation is still waiting for funds to be released by the Sindh government to begin de-silting of major stormwater drains.

In a letter to the local government department, Karachi commissioner sought funds for desilting of major nullahs. This season the KMC had not yet started work on removal of silt from drains, said the letter.

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has already warned the provinces about approaching weather system and asked them to be make preparations to cope with the emerging situation.

“In March 2016, we had called a meeting of all the provinces and informed them about their responsibilities and role as well as NDMA’s contribution as a central body in this scenario. It’s solely the responsibility at district level to plan in a situation like this and execute their job,” said Ahmed Kamal, the NDMA spokesman.

Despite early forecast by the Met Office and warning by the NDMA, the situation in Karachi and Hyderabad remains unchanged with no preparations in sight for the heavy rains.

Officials said that apart from impact of weather system, poor infrastructure of the respective areas also came under consideration while releasing forecasts. “On an average, Karachi receives 60 to 65 millimeter rain in July and almost the same amount in August during monsoon,” said Akhlaque Jamil, senior meteorologist and deputy director Met Office.

“The forecast of urban flooding is made on the basis of approaching weather systems and also on the basis of poor functioning of the city’s infrastructure, which can hardly manage to handle an average of 60 to 65 millimeter rainfall and if it exceeds by 10 to 20 per cent it will be an extremely difficult situation altogether,” they said.

Published in Dawn, June 27th, 2016