KARACHI: While discussing last year’s Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake at a workshop which recently concluded at the NED University of Engineering and Technology, a US expert warned of an earthquake that, he said, could strike Karachi any time.

Dr Roger Bilham, a professor at the department of geological sciences at the University of Colorado, the US, had been invited to a two-day workshop, Recent Advancements in Earthquake Engineering and Seismology in South Asian Countries, organised by the earthquake engineering department of the NED University.

The programme was the first to be held under the aegis of newly established South Asia Earthquake (SHAKE) Network and participated by delegates from Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Italy.

“An earthquake can hit Karachi any time. Imagine the scale of its devastation in the densely populated city that has a highly fragile infrastructure and lacks even the capacity to handle collapse of a single building caused by zero ground acceleration,” said Prof Bilham, who is considered an authority on geodesy and plate tectonics.

Speaking to Dawn on the sidelines of the workshop, he said detailed studies were needed to predict the time and intensity of the earthquake risk looming over Karachi.

“There has to be detailed record of past earthquakes so that one could predict the future events. And, this could be easily done as there are cost-efficient technologies available and you got the experts,” he said.

An earthquake, he pointed out, destroyed Bhambore in 890AD while the second one recorded in 1668 destroyed a town in the northeast of Hyderabad due to which the river Indus changed its course. Another earthquake (tsunami) occurred in 1945, he added.

“It’s time to have another one,” he said while referring to the pattern of these earthquakes.

Giving a presentation on the probabilistic seismic risk assessment of Karachi and the seismic vulnerability of buildings in Pakistan, experts from the NED University said the country’s built infrastructure was highly vulnerable to damage in case of a disaster as building codes were often conveniently ignored.

“Sixty-five per cent of Karachi’s buildings will collapse completely if an earthquake of greater-than-seven magnitude hits the city. Lack of implementation of building codes is a major problem and in most cases they are not being followed,” said Dr Mukesh Kumar of the NED University.

Sharing the history of major earthquakes in Pakistan, Prof Mohammad Masood Rafi told the audience that there had been 21 major disasters in the areas which now comprised Pakistan. Of them, 13 earthquakes were reported in Balochistan, four in Sindh, one in Punjab and three in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The highest death toll occurred in 893 AD when an earthquake (estimated to have an intensity of 8 magnitude on the Richter scale) struck parts of Sindh and claimed 150,000 lives.

Dr Mohammad Waseem of the National Centre of Excellence in Geology, the University of Peshawar, said the building codes of Pakistan underestimated the earthquake risk and there was an immediate need to revisit the values of design ground motion.

Experts regretted that government bodies such as the Pakistan meteorological department and Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission didn’t share data on earthquakes with local experts, which, they believed, was a major impediment in carrying out research.

Highlighting the aims and objectives of SHAKE, Prof Abdelkrim Aoudia of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, which has also funded the workshop along with the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Pakistan, said it was a multi-national joint initiative to encourage a regional structured approach to seismic risk mitigation, leading to reduced monetary losses and casualties.

“Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are all developing countries, facing similar problems. The network will help the scientific communities of these nations to share the lessons learnt from the earthquakes, exchange ideas and adopt an improved approach towards tackling disasters,” he said.

Dr Kushan Wijesundara from Sri Lanka, Dr Amod Mani Dixit and Kuber Bogati, both from Nepal, Prof Raquib Ahsan from Bangladesh, and Phuntsho Pelgay from Bhutan talked about the efforts being taken in their countries to combat the challenge of earthquake.

Dr Amit Kumar representing India spoke via a video link.

Published in Dawn, August 12th, 2016