LAHORE: Traffic on the dual carriageway leading from the Adda Plot crossing, on Raiwind Road, to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s palatial home in Jati Umra and beyond to the new industrial estate at Sundar is usually not heavy. That may change when Imran Khan holds his rally on Sept 30.

Once on the road, which runs along an irrigation water channel – also known as the second canal of Lahore – you are confronted by concrete barriers erected about five kilometers from Adda Plot to keep unwanted elements away from the home of the country’s first family, occupying it since the early 1990s. From this point onwards, traffic must divert to the other side of the carriageway and move slowly on a 700-metre stretch that separates the royal residence, spread over hundreds of acres on your left, from an education and a medical complex built by the Sharifs on your right.

Imran Khan says he doesn’t intend to use the road and doesn’t want to lead the protesters to the prime minister’s home on the day of the Raiwind march. But everyone is apprehensive as the PML-N has been exhorting its workers to “protect your leader”. There are reports that the government plans to seal off the road on both sides of the Sharif estate by placing containers.

To Hassan Javid, a political science professor at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, Imran’s decision to hold a rally close to the prime minister’s residence is an extension of the kind of politics that he has been practising. “Imran believes he can discredit Nawaz Sharif and his family by calling their integrity into question.

“This strategy is quite visible in all his anti-government rhetoric and campaigns on issues like alleged rigging in the 2013 elections and the Panama leaks, even though it hasn’t yielded any result for the PTI chief so far,” he argues.

But the professor agrees that Imran’s plan to directly challenge the premier outside his home has a symbolic significance.

Many analysts believe Imran has emerged as the main challenger to the PML-N, particularly in Punjab. The narrow victory margins for PML-N candidates in the recent by-elections in Jhelum, Vehari and Sahiwal bear them out.

Therefore, the kaptaan (Imran Khan) wants to simultaneously keep Nawaz Sharif on his toes through such pressure tactics as organising a protest in his city and close to his home, and boost his supporters’ morale in the run-up to the 2018 general election.

“Imran and his PTI have emerged as the only credible opposition to the PML-N in Punjab. Whether anyone likes it or not, only he can give the PML-N a tough time in the province in 2018. He knows inaction is not good for the morale of his supporters and PTI’s prospects in the next elections.

“It may also help him contain infighting within his own party,” Suhail Warraich, a journalist and political commentator, believes.

Civil-military relationship

Many analysts don’t see the Raiwind march as a threat to Nawaz Sharif’s hold on power per se, but warn that the PTI’s planned protest could be an attempt to cash in on the deteriorating civil-military relationship and somehow force the military to intervene.

“The timing of the PTI’s protest is important. It could test the relationship between the civil and military leaderships, which is already at its lowest ebb. And if the protest turns violent, it will be difficult for the government to bear the consequences.”

Analysts like Hassan warn the PML-N against overreacting. “The PML-N has a tendency to overreact to dissent and agitation, as the Model Town incident shows. It freely uses police force to curb dissent. It should know that use of force on Sept 30 will not go in its favour at all.”

Indeed, fears of clashes between supporters of the two parties are rising as the PML-N has mobilised baton-waving contingents of its workers and scheduled a rally at Sangla Hill the same day. The prime minister is expected to address the rally.

This apprehension has kept other opposition parties, eg the PPP and PML-Q, away from the Raiwind protest so far, analysts say.

“Many opposition parties think that the Raiwind march is not going to produce any result and fear that the situation could turn ugly and get out of their control if violence erupts close to the prime minister’s home. That will not be to anyone’s advantage. They want parliament, judiciary and the election commission to take a decision on the future of the Nawaz Sharif government. This is why they have decided to stay away from the march,” a political analyst said.

Saeed Ghani, a PPP Senator, feels that it is an exclusive PTI event. “It did not ask us before taking a decision, although we have been working together on Panama leaks. It did not invite us. Besides, we are opposed to taking politics and protests to anyone’s home. If a tradition is set today, we don’t know where it will lead us tomorrow.”

On the other hand, a Punjab University professor sees no harm in holding a protest near the prime minister’s residence “as long as the protesters remain peaceful”.

He contends that although the Sharif estate is a private property, the government has spent millions in taxpayers’ money on its upkeep and fortification. “More money has been spent on it than the total amount of taxes paid by the entire Sharif family. If they really want to draw a line between the private and the public in the prime minister’s life, they better return the taxpayers’ money.”

Published in Dawn, September 23rd, 2016