ISLAMABAD: Clouds rolling in from the northwest may bring the first rain and snowfall in northern Pakistan in the coming weeks. But Punjab’s plains - even Rawalpindi and Islamabad sitting in the foothills - will remain dry.

Worse, the accompanying winds entering the moisture-deprived area on Saturday increased the dryness in the air, aggravating the health issues of the citizens of the twin cities.

Already, the dry spell coupled with the sharp contrast between day and night temperatures, had been getting on the nerves of the citizens for quite some time. From 5C overnight, the temperature shot up to 24C at places during daytime.

“There is too much dust in the air because of lack of rains which causes respiratory problems, including asthma, and several kind of allergies like skin dryness,” said Dr Azhar Abbas, a general physician in Rawalpindi.

Dr Azhar identified temperature variations as causing the most problems.

“The days are mild so people do not wear warm clothes. But the sudden sharp decline in temperature just after sunset increases the chances of them catching a cold and chest infections,” he said.

Absence of rains is having a serious impact on the Rabi crops too, especially in the Barani (rain-fed) areas.

No wonder, the Met Office has issued an advisory to the farmers in Barani areas, which is mainly the Potohar region, that they should use deep ploughs to reach the sub-soil moisture.

Although the fresh westerly wave seen approaching the northern parts of the country on Sunday - and is likely to persist for a few days – it will bring rain and thunderstorm with snowfall over the hills in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and at isolated places in Malakand and Hazara divisions. The shallow wave is not strong enough to penetrate further into Punjab or mainland Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Met office sources attributed the conditions to the ongoing global weather phenomenon of ‘La-Nina’. Due to this weather pattern, there are “remote chances of rain in mainland Pakistan during the months of November and December.

“El Nino and La-Nina weather patterns have formed in the Pacific Ocean at western coast of South America,” said an official of the Met office. The El Nino impacts monsoon rains whereas the La Nina affects the winter rains.

Because of the latter pattern, the winds coming from the Mediterranean Sea were getting limited moisture from the Caspian Sea.

Simultaneously, a high pressure anomaly over Central Asia was pushing the cold winds further north towards Southern Russia instead of moving South East towards Pakistan.

Since such irregular developments cannot be predicted over a long term, the Met office experts don’t see an end to the dry spell by the end of December.

Published in Dawn November 21st, 2016