Who will be the next prime minister?
Experts fear the party could disintegrate if the situation remains uncertain.
The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz's leader stands disqualified by the country's Supreme Court after the Panama Leaks corruption probe. Moments after the verdict, Nawaz Sharif announced that he's stepping down from the seat of the prime minister. What does the court judgment mean for Nawaz Sharif, the Sharif family and the PML-N? Our experts weigh in.
'The party could disintegrate'
Zahid Hussain
Who will become the next prime minister?
One cannot be sure about it. It’s a very uncertain situation.
Is there anyone that the PML-N can produce as a leader?
I don’t think so because the party revolves around one person or one family. So it will be very difficult for the party to actually have a person who could keep the party united and go into the next elections.
What could be the evolution of the PML-N? Or is this the end of party as well?
That’s the problem with the PML-N. Nawaz Sharif has tried to transform the party and make it more populist but it still remains the party of the establishment. We have seen in the past that whenever under pressure, the party disintegrated and I think it could happen again.
Does the party have any chances in the next elections?
It’s doubtful because the entire family has been indicted and I think that’s the biggest blow.
Will the PTI or any other party be able to take advantage in the elections?
Imran will have the biggest advantage but basically politics will become much more fragmented now in Punjab because the battle ground is in Punjab. The rest of the country isn’t that much affected by the verdict. It will lead to a more fragmented house.
Zahid Hussain is an author and journalist. He tweets @hidhussain.
'Historically, the voting public seems to be unfazed by allegations'
Salahuddin Ahmed
Who will become the next prime minister?
I really have no idea but if media reports are to be believed, Khawaja Asif or Shahid Khaqan Abbasi may have a chance.
Can the PML-N have another leader outside of the House of Nawaz?
Another prime minister maybe but not necessarily another leader.
What does it mean for the PML-N that it can’t produce another leader especially with the elections coming up?
It doesn’t really mean much because nearly all other parties are also organised around a family, on a hereditary basis.
Does the PML-N stand a chance to win the next elections?
I don’t think this will necessarily be fatal to their electoral chances. This is not over as yet. I mean, there are possibly reviews to be filed, maybe even constitutional amendments. A lot of things could happen between now and then.
So, possible redemption or way back for Nawaz Sharif? Or is his career over?
I don’t think so. Nawaz Sharif has been convicted by courts before as well, as well as the PPP leaders like Benazir and Zardari. Somehow, convictions and disqualifications don’t seem to stick in Pakistan.
Don’t you think this verdict is different from those in the past?
You see, there are a bunch of things that could be done. Let's say tomorrow, a few other politicians also get disqualified on the same grounds. If the Supreme Court was to apply this rule even-evenhandedly then I find it hard to understand how, even Imran Khan for that matter, would escape. So if we have a bunch of disqualifications then eventually, probably the parliament would get around to removing article 62-63 altogether, and that would pave the way for a return.
Do you think Imran Khan has an improved chance now after this verdict?
I don’t know how important this verdict will be in electoral terms.
Why is that?
Because historically, the voting public seems to be relatively unfazed by allegations. Just because Imran has been successful in ousting the PM, it doesn’t mean that it would immediately improve his electoral chances with the public.
He might get an advantage, there might be a bunch of people willing to jump ship from the PML-N to the PTI, which might improve his chances. But for the general voting public, I don’t know how much effect this judgment would have.
Is another PML-N government possible?
I think we could have that. If they decide to hold elections straight away, although I don’t think they would be that bold.
Salahuddin Ahmed is a lawyer based in Karachi.
'It is time for the PML-N to act like a party'
Tahir Medhi
Who will become the next prime minister?
My hunch is that it could be Ayaz Sadiq, but I think the bigger point is that it is time for the PML-N to act like a party and establish that they can go through the current challenge.
I mean that the party is usually organised around one person and I think it is time for the PML-N to cross that point in its history and act like a political institution.
I am quite optimistic that they will be able to do that. It won’t be a repeat of 1993, or any other point in Pakistani history, where Nawaz Sharif is taken out and the whole party crumbles.
What makes you confident that the PML-N will act like a party this time around?
They will act like a party because I think the PML-N now actually stands to represent what I call the Punjabi civil, elite interest as a party. I think that interest itself is so mature and significant that it can produce a new leader. Earlier in our history that interest used to be that of the military interest, but now it is so sizable and so mature that I think it can produce another leader.
What do you think is going to happen in the next elections? Do you think the PML-N will suffer from this verdict or do you think they will bounce back?
A lot will depend on the next few months. I think that it won’t damage PML-N’s chances in a big way.
The writer works with Punjab Lok Sujag, a research and advocacy group that has a primary interest in understanding governance and democracy.
Nawaz 'faces a unique challenge that he is not prepared for'
Khurram Husain
What do you make of the PMs disqualification and who do you think could be the next PM ?
The PML-N is ill prepared to face this moment because the party is built almost entirely around Nawaz Sharif and his family. The PPP government absorbed the dismissal of a prime minister because the party could delegate executive power to a party leader. Nawaz has to wield power personally to be effective. Now that he has been separated from his executive powers, he faces a unique challenge that he is not prepared for.
Khurram Husain is a member of Dawn's editorial staff and tweets [@khurramhusain]
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Comments (69) Closed
Jul 28, 2017 02:20pm
this type of dequalification occurs in Pakistan Parliament in every 8 or 9 year .
so nothing is going to change
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Jul 28, 2017 02:26pm
The question is who will complete his full term as PM.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:29pm
The next PM from this parliament will no doubt complete the little term that is left. But the next election PM will suffer the same fate as have all the prime ministers to date.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:30pm
@Desi Dimag : The question is who will complete his full term as PM..
Ans: The Establishment..
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Jul 28, 2017 02:30pm
The best and good person is Abdul Qadir Baluch, unfortunately, Nawaz sharif did not come up standard and wish of nation, he 1997/98 Nawaz sharif attacked h'ble Ex-chief justice (late) Sajjad Ali Shah, he is happy in his grave, alhas he passed away 2 or 3 months ago.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:33pm
Corrupt Nawaz and Zardari both destroyed and looted Pakistan. Mukk gaya tera show Nawaz.....Go Nawaz Go Nawaz
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Jul 28, 2017 02:36pm
PM has only himself to blame. Had he not set the precedent to move in courts in an attempt to disqualify Gilani, he would have completed the tenure. Sadly, he had not learned much after the exile as initially thought.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:42pm
Guys my quick future analysis .. I think now it will be Imran Khan the next to be disqualified...
eventually IK disqualification will hurt PTI more then NS disqualification can hurt PMLN.
aftermaths PTI's member joining PPP.
And NS winning 2018 election (thanks to Shahbaz) and China.
..Again IK will start with 35 punchers...and end up crying.
END..
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Jul 28, 2017 02:43pm
Who is next to be disqualified and tried under the corruption law.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:45pm
This is a chance for PML-N to come out of a family dominance and act like a mature independent party. PML-N has many able and experienced politicians, who should be given a chance to lead the party.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:46pm
If other party leaders are happy about Sharif's exit, it will be short lived, because next is their turn.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:50pm
remember only IMRAN KHAN could do that because the others are theirselves guilty of panama.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:52pm
remember only IMRAN KHAN could do that because the others are theirselves guilty of the offshore
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Jul 28, 2017 02:55pm
Tahir saheb's analysis seems most plausible. .Pakistan will overcome this crisis. .
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Jul 28, 2017 02:55pm
i am of the opinion that Hamza Shahbaz may be given the chance and to be nominated for the PM because other leaders are available but mian sb have no faith over them. He have faith over Dar sb but who has been made disqualified including old classmate of main sb khowaja asif. Ayaz Sadiq is under discussion but does not seems to be nominated for PM as Hamza is MNA and son of shahbaz sharif who is already CM if the hamza is not nominated then shahid khakan abbasi is heavy weight for the post because he is known as old loyal of mian sb. Chaudhry nisar Khan was suitable for the post but some conspirator hatched conspiracy within the party which kept him away from mian sb resulted he has been sidelined otherwise he was most senior and known loyalist with the party but his last day press conference parted ways from the party and cleared the way for the hamza and khakhan, further see who is decided for the slot by elder mian sb. Muhammad Nawaz Sharif.
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Jul 28, 2017 02:58pm
Same people did not see the PM getting disqualified.
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Jul 28, 2017 03:09pm
My prediction is that PML-N will crumble and larger scale defections will result to either PTI or PPP. But PML-N will still be a force in Punjab. So now it would be a better three way fight. Things will get clearer in a couple of weeks.
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Jul 28, 2017 03:21pm
Now the total Govt or PML-N machinery work to get IK disqualified.
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Jul 28, 2017 03:21pm
this seems to be one scene from a chain of events. Question of appointing a successor for the highest post does not exist in our society. There is no number 2 of the top. May it be corporate world politics or any other body. Do have a look around. I can not find any sadiq/ ameen to become prime minister.
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Jul 28, 2017 03:31pm
Trend is changing guys , whatever happens now would be unpredictable for sure .
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Jul 28, 2017 03:31pm
Can anyone tell under which section of the Pakistani penal code the prime minister of Pakistan was disqualified?
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Jul 28, 2017 03:33pm
Being a UK born national, I have always looked at Pakistan as my real home as my Parents were from Pakistan.
However, I could never understand why Pakistan was in dire condition in the Media until I visited there myself. It is criminal in today's day and age, that Pakistan is in the position it finds itself. How can a country have 12-hour electricity shortages EVERY day? Why are there Gas shortages and very poor education and infrastructure? Why are the rich super rich and why are the poor, well very poor. The conclusion was simple. Corrupt leadership and inept action from the Pakistan public. It felt that the Pakistani were already willing to accept the corrupt leaders as they vote them in.
The only hope for Pakistan is Imran Khan. I really hope Pakistani people can see beyond their current situation and look to invest in their future.
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Jul 28, 2017 03:35pm
the end is near, opposition should demand early election because whoever is the next PM it will appear an interim setup anyway. Nisar is the best choice, although
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Jul 28, 2017 03:38pm
The 'Party' is over PML-N and Sharif family. No one from this corrupt clan should be allowed to remain in office, much less contest next election. They have lost complete credibility and trust of the people - whom they tried to fool for months, with lies and fabrications.
The audacity of submitting forged documents before the highest court of the land, shows their utter contempt for the institution and lack of respect for the judicial branch and the judges. In no shape or form anyone, who kept backing the PM till the last minute, deserve to assume the PM's role or be incharge of any ministry.
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Jul 28, 2017 03:38pm
Good riddance.
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Jul 28, 2017 03:43pm
@Indian Article 62, 63
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Jul 28, 2017 03:44pm
They suffer the same fate because they act in their own interests and not in the interests of the common man. Go through any city and you see garbage spewing out bacteria, roads that are broken and if not them built at enormous costs which includes billions syphoned off to personal accounts, no clean running water, no public health, schools which are below standard, millions with poor housing and the list goes on and on! The pyramid of corruption is now inbuilt in the country ..... this is proven by the stench of decay everywhere except in houses of the corrupt.
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Jul 28, 2017 03:49pm
Nothing new for Pakistan. Elected PMs have always been removed on the grounds of corruption .
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Jul 28, 2017 03:49pm
Zardari is extremely scared now from accountability. He also looted Pakistan's national wealth like Nawaz .
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Jul 28, 2017 04:10pm
A serious moment/stage in Pakistan's history. How the country handles the crisis will be watched by the world. It is time for Pakistan to watch over and
strengthen its democratic institutions.
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Jul 28, 2017 04:10pm
Party is over.
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Jul 28, 2017 04:17pm
after 70 years of independence even not a single PM can complete 5 years of terms.poor performance of democracy
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Jul 28, 2017 04:23pm
Non of the aspirants mentioned in the text above have any such capability except Ch. Nisar. All of them are involved in one scam or the other. Is it not better that IK himself gets out of his shell and befriend electoral college in his favor. Do it Quick.
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Jul 28, 2017 04:43pm
@Skeptic So true no one from this corrupt clan should be ever allowed again
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Jul 28, 2017 04:45pm
The best choice is Rana Sanaullah Khan, as he is very docile and not capable of creating any rift in the party
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Jul 28, 2017 05:15pm
PMLN is lucky in the sense that all electoral promises will not be fulfill and they will find a chance to raise the excuse that Establishment in connivance with opposition did not let them do work.Now question is Is Nawaz is only corrupt politician in Pakistan? if not that who will disqualify other corrupt elements.At least it looks that all under construction bridges in Karachi and else will go to hell of ignorance for some times that all iron there in again will go into the stomach of namalum affrad .Let's see who many days more we can move free with our mobile in Karachi.
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Jul 28, 2017 05:16pm
The Best Candidate Succesd NS is Daniel Aziz, Tough talking person
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Jul 28, 2017 05:23pm
Nothing sticks in Pakistan, Nawaz came back (3rd time), Zardari is still out there walking Scott free, as a BILLIONAIRE. But this time might be different? I really pray it is
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Jul 28, 2017 05:40pm
What goes round comes round. NS suggested PM Jilani to resigned and was happy on his disqualification from the SC.
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Jul 28, 2017 05:48pm
This is an interesting and intriguing question as to who will be the next Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan after the Supreme Court dismissed Nawaz Sharif in a landmark and historic decision today on Friday, July 28, 2017?
It is also for sure a 64 million dollar question as they say, which no top expert, scholar, academic, analyst or consultant of political science and international relations can answer correctly at this crucial juncture in time and history. However, since the Ittefaq group is more of a clan than a political party, maybe they will pick up somebody from the younger generation of the Sharif family to be the new Prime Minister?
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Jul 28, 2017 05:56pm
Accountability for a select few yet again, although it's a start. However, article 62, 63 should be applied across the board once and for all and the time to do so is ripe. But the irony is that there will be no one left to lead Pakistan if that ever happens. Get a technocrat govt on board, apply the articles and reform the election commission and eliminate politics of dynasty. The time is now.
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Jul 28, 2017 06:20pm
Next PM would be his brother.
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Jul 28, 2017 06:29pm
Pakistan entered in a painful process of accountability and whether the fate of other cases be it of offshore registration issue or anything but allegedly on corruption what What the Sword of Damocles falls on similar cases that would lead the future course.If it is a replay of Khawaja Nazimuddin ouster and court's verdict during 1953 in a new fashion is to be seen. But senior lawyer and always fought since 1971- from crack down to turning out of Musharraf prmulgation, Asma Jehangir's cautionary sound to be remembered at the current evolving situation.
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Jul 28, 2017 06:37pm
PML N was already prepared for such decision and the party has framed a reasonable plan to act upon to avoid any disturbance
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Jul 28, 2017 06:42pm
Pimeminister for the remaining period may be Ayaz Sadiq
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Jul 28, 2017 06:46pm
Article 62 ,63 must be applied on all political leaders just now
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Jul 28, 2017 07:07pm
@Desi Dimag The answer is quite easy. The next most corrupt Politician will be the next prime minister
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Jul 28, 2017 07:16pm
Mr. Nisar Choudhry seems more reliable a person to become the next PM.
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Jul 28, 2017 07:23pm
@Desi Dimag
In parliamentary system of democracy completing term is not the norm. India had a PM for 13 days.
PM of Iceland immediately after his name appeared in Panama Papers.
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Jul 28, 2017 07:56pm
Stopgap PM wouldn't be chosen based on experience or strength, he would be the loyalest and the weakest person in the house like Sahabaz's Dost Muhammad or Zardari's Gilani
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Jul 28, 2017 08:22pm
I am sure that Imran Khan will be benefited most from this historic decision and he rightly deserves so.
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Jul 28, 2017 09:13pm
It is in fitness of things that there is an all party national government, Nawaz being ousted is an incrimination of whole party, which failed to do the right thing by asking Nawaz Sharif to step down, at least they can do the right thing by sharing power till next general elections, which must now be held at eatliest
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Jul 28, 2017 10:19pm
Is high time we started letting the currently majority party to complete its mandate for the sake of strengthening democratic foundations. So far what we have had what we have had was called guided democracy since the time of Ayub Khan, because the powers that be believed that the public mind is too much influenced by its spiritual compulsions who might vote in a fundamentalist regime at some stage through their exponentially increasing discontent with the sitting governments' policies. But now, after passage of 7o years, there are strong indications that the people seem to have leant the difference between spiritual workings and the dynamics of democracy. Therefore a full-fledged democracy must be allowed to them now. An effort should be made to amend the constitution to clearly define the lines between religious principles and the modern governmental necessities. It has become a cliché, but the target of 100 % literacy must be achieved as soon as possible.
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Jul 28, 2017 10:20pm
@Desi Dimag why is that important. Many prime ministers in a Europe do not complete their full term.
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Jul 28, 2017 10:23pm
I still cant believe after NS has been found guilty of corruption their are still people willing to support him and his party. Shouldn't Pakistan come first? Stop supporting these corrupt people. Its time to get rid of NS and Zardari of this world and bring in new party.
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Jul 28, 2017 10:28pm
I think this is fantacy justice as no body has claimed the lost the money gained by the Nawaz and associates . By western justice standards this does not constitute a case.If however they have found people who ended up losing that money only then the maoney theft stands ground.If you apply this rather over strict stanfard most people will fail to stand upto that.If any person with a capacity to gift that kind of money states that he gave the money that should justify the possession.Keeping money on better return prospects should be considered a clever move rather then a foul one.There was some noise about the money laundering way back but the rules and practices which may have prevented that have not been looked in.It should be the law ministry doing the things supreme court is doing on suo moto initiatives.Also dethroning a working primeminister creates far more damaging chaos than the improvements justice imparted can bring in.
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Jul 29, 2017 04:41am
dont' choose too quickly or they;ll have nothing to write about.
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Jul 29, 2017 06:43am
Nawaz Shareef is faced with a dilemma to pick his own replacement. Opting for brother Shahbaz shall split the Sharif family pretty soon, while the party may survive intact,provided the Shareef family keeps Punjab in its grip through a family scion.
Delegation of authority in Punjab to somebody from outside the family shall lead to a tug of war between the outsiders and Shareef family.
Both cases shall lead to a flight of opportunist leaders to PTI and frustration in the lower ranks which shall give a big setback to the party.
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Jul 29, 2017 06:43am
The people of Pakistan want no more Sharif's or Zardaris. That is a certainty. The Zardaris got the message. The Sharifs have not yet gotten the message. Not even now.
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Jul 29, 2017 10:31am
whatever future holds for Pakistan the supreme court has truly emerged supreme apparently keeping in view public's benefit from this ruling. I hope corruption decreases and development of country increases.Under the leadership of NS many important projects were inaugurated.I hope that trend continues with a refined leadership.Best of luck
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Jul 29, 2017 10:39am
The pic on this article is a reminder to everyone of two of the most honest and trustworthy personalities of Pakistan.
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Jul 29, 2017 11:29am
@Syed and the 50 million withheld.
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Jul 29, 2017 12:43pm
@Jawaid But most of them completed, none here. So this is supernatural.
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Jul 29, 2017 08:05pm
Let the people decide by votes. If elitist judges or military or media or bureacrats etc gang up , collude in different gangs and try to outmaneuver each other to decide who becomes or stays as PM, that is murder of democracy. People are left just helpless and watching the show. It erodes trust and faith in democracy and IS or Talibans etc can earn sympathy. Imran Khan an immature and ambitous and maybe financillay honest man is severely hurting the fabric of democracy.
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Jul 29, 2017 10:42pm
My hunch is that in the next elections a hung parliament will emerge in Pakistan where like in India coalition politics era will be inaugurated. Probably, there would be a greater democratization of Muslim League and strengthening of civil society institutions in Punjab and elsewhere too since goondaism of Karachi is relatively under control, the bad guys of all criminal infested parties are under arrest, while few noble policemen became shaheed such as that Chaudhary Aslam. But, with Nawaz resigning elegantly, this is victory of Pakistan democracy. In future elections, Imran Khan will probably sway the campuses of major universities, and in urban centers he might gain at PML's expense, but Nawaz is a likable politician and will survive unlike Zardari and his boy who is akin to our Rahul Gandhi. So, a fragmented polity reflecting fragmented society might result but that by itself isn't bad since societies can reunite later but the political events have set up an elegant precedent.
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Jul 30, 2017 12:30am
@Lahori kid, That was a joke people.
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Jul 30, 2017 01:14am
@OVAIS rIZVI and why is Imran Khan is our hope ? you blamed everything on corrupt leadership and then you unbelievably attached your hope with a corrupt leader, why? how come a corrupt politician will make this country prosper by switching with another corrupt ruler? cant understand
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Jul 30, 2017 08:09am
Who will be the next PM? I hope and pray for a honest one.
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Jul 30, 2017 08:34am
Why not Maryam?
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