GET ready for more European tough talk, stricter policies and much hand-wringing on migration in the coming months. Also brace yourselves for some changes in the EU visa policy.

The number of refugees and migrants arriving in Europe may not be as high as in 2015 when the bloc found itself faced with more than one million new arrivals. But managing the influx of people from the Middle East, Africa and Asia remains a major headache for European governments and the Brussels-based European Commission.

After the increase in votes for xenophobic parties in polls held last year in Germany, Greece and the Netherlands, the strong performance of Eurosceptic parties, including the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, in recent Italian elections highlights the many ways in which migration is disrupting European politics and societies.

The focus three years ago was on refugees and migrants who arrived in Germany. Since then, migrant flows through Central Europe have been vastly reduced following an agreement with Turkey to hold back the migrants.

Yet, more than 3,100 people died or went missing in the Mediterranean last year — almost as high as the 2015 total of 3,771. And Greece and Italy continue to bear the brunt of recent large movements of refugees and migrants into Europe from places such as Afghanistan, Africa, Libya and Syria.

Most observers agree that both countries have felt abandoned by other EU states which have looked the other way.

French President Emmanuel Macron admitted recently while commenting on the elections in the country: “Italy has, it’s undeniable, suffered for months and months under the pressure of migration. This very strong migration pressure is a context we should keep in mind.”

Europe’s east-west divide on migration is deepening as the debate gets even more acrimonious. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto whose government is leading the anti-migration lobby in the EU, says he is looking forward to working with the Austrian government, which includes the far-right Freedom Party, and the centre-right in Italy to demand tougher action against migration.

Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have refused to sign a quota system for a share-out of refugees, citing security concerns and the desire to preserve the traditional Christian make-up of their societies.

Now Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has said he will use the country’s EU presidency later this year to stem the tide of illegal immigration.

Struggling to stem the political turmoil while keeping to the EU’s commitment to human rights — and the economic need for more migration — the European Commission last week insisted that it was working to “save lives, tackle root causes, protect Europe’s external borders and further strengthen cooperation with international partners”.

With arrivals of refugees and migrants now down by 30 per cent compared to three years ago, EU officials insist the time is ripe to speed up and intensify efforts across the board. “We cannot risk becoming complacent,” an EU official said, adding that the focus is on returns, better border management and legal channels.

EU foreign and security policy chief Federica Mogherini told the European Parliament last week that the EU, working with the United Nations and the African Union, had managed to “rescue and free more than 16,000 people from camps in Libya”. Efforts to take home all the remaining people would continue, she said.

The Commission has also warned it will tighten visa requirements for citizens of countries that are failing to take back illegal migrants to the EU. The move covers countries across Africa and Asia, including Ethiopia, Gambia, Mali, Ivory Coast, Guinea and Senegal which all took back less than 10pc of their nationals who were ordered to leave the EU in 2016.

Officials point out that Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh also had return rates of less than 30pc, as did Morocco, Tunisia and Armenia.

EU countries only send back around half of migrants denied visas, often because the migrants have lost or destroyed their ID documents and it’s difficult to establish their nationality. Fake ID is also often used.

Formalising a threat already made to some African countries by EU member states, the EU’s executive commission announced that it has “a new mechanism to trigger stricter conditions for processing visas when a partner country does not cooperate sufficiently”.

The planned changes to the 26-nation Schengen visa system would allow the EU to cut the length of time the visa is valid, restrict multiple-entry visas, or increase fees, processing times and requirements for supporting documents.

One interesting innovation aimed at putting pressure on decision-makers means that diplomats from countries which refuse to play ball on readmissions could have to start paying visa fees or face other entry restrictions. At the same time, the Commission has promised it will make it easier for bona fide travellers to visit Europe.

Certainly, Europe will remain an attractive destination for students, tourists as well as refugees and migrants. And while EU officials deny that they are creating a “Fortress Europe”, travelling to Europe will become even more expensive.

The cost of a Schengen visa is proposed to rise by a third to €80 to help fund tougher security screenings as well as IT equipment and software upgrades. Those seeking to reach Europe through illegal channels will probably have to pay an even higher price.

—The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels

Published in Dawn, March 17th, 2018