SEOUL: A high-profile North Korean figure’s suspected visit to China is likely a sign the two communist states hope to improve ties and gain leverage in Pyongyang’s planned summits with Seoul and Washington, experts say.

News reports suggested on Monday that a high-level Pyongyang official — possibly North Korean leader Kim Jong-un — made an unannounced visit to Beijing by train. The identity of the official remains unconfirmed.

Whoever visited China, North Korea’s biggest trading partner and traditional ally, it marks a significant turning point in China-North Korea relations, experts say, as Pyongyang seeks to ease sanctions while Beijing seeks to expand influence on the North Korean nuclear issue.

“North Korea needs an ally ahead of the planned meeting with the US. The talks could be successful, but they could also flounder,” said Chung Jae-heung, a researcher from the Sejong Institute think tank. “Amid such uncertainties, I think the North needed support from China and had to discuss ways to secure its regime survival, riding on the momentum of dialogue with the US and South Korea.”

China may also be wary of losing influence over the North in the face of a growing Sino-US rivalry for regional hegemony and as it is being increasingly sidelined by overtures from Pyongyang to Seoul and Washington in the process of denuclearising the Korean peninsula.

“It is a win-win for China, too. With China’s President Xi Jinping tightening his grip over the country, his new challenge is to expand his clout on the matter of the Korean peninsula,” he said.

Relations between Pyongyang and Beijing have been strained due to China backing several rounds of international sanctions against North Korea over the reclusive regime’s pursuit of nuclear and missile weapon technology. North Korean exports of coal, seafood and other sources of currency have been hampered by the sanctions.

The visit by an unidentified Pyongyang official comes as Kim plans to hold a summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in late April and a potential meeting with US President Donald Trump before the end of May.

“For North Korea, it could not just ignore China ahead of an important event. A visit by a North Korean high-ranking official would mean putting Beijing at the centre of the diplomatic equation,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor at Dongguk University.

Another expert said the North’s willingness to repair ties with China signals it is not willing to completely denuclearise itself and has low expectations on the upcoming summit with the US.

“I think North Korea knew that it could improve ties with China if it offers to talk to the US on denuclearisation,” said Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the National Korea Diplomatic Academy.

“Without willingness to completely denuclearise, North Korea needed China to survive through the international sanctions regime.

“Basically, the North needed to use the rift between the US and China, which are waging a trade war and fighting for clout in the region.”

Kim also pointed out that Trump filling out his foreign policy team with hardliners could be a factor in North Korea seeking to mend ties with China.

“North Korea needs China amid the growing possibility of its talks with the US ending in failure, and China needs North Korea as a buffer as the US is getting tougher on it,” he said.

Trump tapped John Bolton as his new national security adviser. The former US ambassador to the United Nations is known for his hard-line stance advocating the use of military force against North Korea.

Trump also replaced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with Mike Pompeo, director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Pompeo is similarly seen as a hardliner who has floated the possibility of a pre-emptive strike against North Korea as well as regime change. The Korea Herald

Published in Dawn, March 28th, 2018