THE established political parties in Swabi district are as confused about their chances as anywhere else. Cautious assumptions have replaced the certainty that marked the general election campaigns of yesteryear. Amid all this confusion, one thing is certain: the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf is capable of repeating its performance of 2013, albeit with a little help from tobacco money.

Here it is not uncommon for candidates of rival parties to tell voters: “Don’t vote for me if you don’t want to, but don’t vote for PTI.”

The PTI’s rivals have pinned their hopes on the perception that a “Pakhtun does not vote for a party in two consecutive elections”.

They hope people would ignore the PTI on July 25 and the party’s loss will be their gain. It’s a fact that like other parts of the Peshawar Valley, voters in Swabi keep their options open from one election to another.

The Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal swept polls in 2002 by winning two NA and three PA seats. In the next elections in 2008, the Awami National Party regained its position and won one NA and four PA seats.

And in 2013, the Awami Jamhuri Itehad Pakistan, a political enterprise of the rich and influential Tarakai family, pulled the rug from under the feet of the PTI, ANP and other groups. The AJIP bagged one NA and three PA seats out of six. Delimitation in the wake of last year’s census has led to reduction of the provincial assembly seats from six to five. The pre-poll scenario looks different this time. Prediction about election results is difficult, but a tough contest is expected between three parties — PTI, ANP and MMA, an alliance of five religious parties that was kept in deep freeze for almost ten years.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz cannot be ignored either. Ameer Muqam has become a major contender in the political landscape of Swabi and the party has awarded tickets to electable candidates, bringing rich candidates to its camp.

Mr Muqam is being given credit for the local passport office, Nadra office and provision of gas and electricity. Money and working relationships between candidates and voters prevail over ideology and manifestos during elections. Political parties, especially the PTI and PML-N, have put their trust in electables.

Swabi is regarded as a stronghold of the ANP. It was the citadel of Ghaffar Khan’s Red Shirt Movement. Ghaffar Khan, also known as Bacha Khan, had once declared Swabi his “second home”.

The ANP had been so influential here that other groups and parties had to form a united front in order to contest elections. Although it is still a formidable force, there has been a gradual reversal of its fortunes.

Workers blame their leadership for the ANP’s shrinking vote bank. They are hopeful that the party will stage a comeback in the coming elections by cashing in on divisions within other parties.

Money talks

But the entry of moneybags and feudal lords has changed the political landscape in this district. Of late, families running cigarette manufacturing businesses have dominated the political scene here.

Acts of charity and philanthropy, even if done only during the campaign, are likely to count.

The Tarakais, a family of tobacco tycoons, have influenced the political dynamics in their favour, stunning the ANP in its stronghold. The Tarakais run populist initiatives in the area — sacrificing 10 buffaloes a day to feed the poor in their constituency, for example — and give donations to welfare schemes to achieve political goals.

The family’s political base, AJIP, won one NA and three PA seats in the 2013 election. The AJIP initially became a coalition partner in the KP government and then got merged into the PTI.

The party was used as a bargaining chip to get maximum benefits from the PTI. Liaquat Tarakai received PTI’s ticket and became a senator. Shahram Tarakai was given the health and information technology portfolios in the KP cabinet.

The Tarakai family caused ripples in the 2008 elections. Engineer Usman Tarakai, who contested the polls as an independent, defeated ANP President Asfandyar Wali Khan on NA-12 (Swabi-I) by securing 49,872 votes. Javed Iqbal Tarakai won a KP Assembly seat by defeating Amir Rehman of the ANP who bagged 15,647 votes. The AJIP routed major political parties in 2013.

The group won one NA seat and three out of the six provincial assembly seats.

The PTI had won one NA and one PA seat that year. The PML-N and Qaumi Watan Party won one PA seat each while the ANP suffered a whitewash in Swabi district.

Now the Tarakai family has received one NA ticket and two provincial assembly tickets from the PTI for the next election. Usman is contesting on NA-19 while Muhammad Ali and Shahram have been allotted tickets for PK-46 and PK-47 respectively.

The Tehreek-i-Insaf has undercut the Tarakai family by dismantling the AJIP, its political enterprise. One major setback for the PTI in general, and the Tarakai family in particular, has been that its close friends have become their political foes.

Babar Salim, a former MPA who contested the previous election on an AJIP ticket, is now a PML-N candidate for the provincial assembly. Babar’s father had been elected an MPA thrice.

The PTI suffered another setback when the PML-N fielded a top cigarette manufacturer and close associate of the Tarakai family, Ijaz Akram Bacha, against his old friend Shahram Tarakai on PK-47.

The ANP has allotted a ticket to Amir Rehman for PK-47. On the other hand delimitation has put PTI’s Asad Qaisar, the winner of NA and PA seats in 2013, in trouble.

Five union councils have been added to NA-18 Swabi and PK-44, Swabi-I, under the new delimitation plan. This weakened the PTI stalwart’s prospects by splitting his vote bank.

According to observers, the induction of turncoats and electables has blotted the PTI’s image and the party may have to pay a price for it on July 25.

Published in Dawn, July 5th, 2018