The entire country is engrossed in preparation for the elections in July, as candidates canvass their constituencies. But not Murree. There is hardly anything going on in the hill station. The markers of an election fever, the flags, the hideously large banners, the untasteful posters advertising more loyalty than party ideology — all of them — are just not present except in a few locations.

But the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) claims to be flying high in the area. “We do not need anyone to campaign in Murree. The PML-N and Abbasi sahib have improved our lives immeasurably,” said a shop owner in Kashmir Bazaar.

Abbasi has remained a member of the National Assembly since 1988, losing only once in 2002. This time, however, the situation may take a different turn. He has not actively campaigned for his home constituency, NA-57, in Murree and has instead focused on building up momentum in NA-53, Islamabad, against Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan.

Abbasi kicked off his campaign on June 24 in Kahuta, but it did not go according to plan. Much to the surprise of the PML-N loyalist, a small group of protesters chanted slogans against him for allegedly failing to fulfil the promises he had made in his previous election campaign.

The Barelvis are making inroads now, and their candidates for NA-57 — TLP’s Javed Akhtar Abbasi and PST’s Mohammad Muneer Satti — are gaining some momentum.

The protest in Kahuta has also spilled over to Abbasi’s home constituency, “we have many problems — the four major commitments that he had made were, to resolve the water shortage issue, to establish a university, to sanction the building of a 100-bed hospital, and to launch a train service to Murree. There has been no progress on any of these fronts,” said a disgruntled resident, Almas Abbasi.

Like Almas, there are many other people in Murree who feel that Abbasi has not exclusively worked for his constituency as his father Khaqan Abbasi had done in the past. They also do not like the fact that he has concentrated all his campaigning efforts on Kahuta.

NA-57 used to be NA-36 when the senior Abbasi won it for the first time in the 1985 elections that were held on a non-party basis as ordered by the dictator, General Ziaul Haq. Since then, the Abbasi family has not looked back. After the death of his father, Abbasi himself ran as an independent in 1988 and won the seat. In 1990, he was victorious under the banner of the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad and returned to the National Assembly in 1993 and 1997 as a candidate of the PML-N.

The electorate

Covering Murree tehsil, Kotli Sattian tehsil, Kahuta tehsil, Sagri circle union councils of Rawalpindi tehsil and some areas of Kallar Syedan tehsil, NA-57 is a large constituency. The geographical spread makes it one of the more difficult seats to contest, and only eight candidates are in contention. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), the Pakistan Sunni Tehreek (PST), the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), the PML-N, and the PTI as well as three independent candidates are all in the running.

There are 590,372 registered voters in the entire constituency including 279,109 women, who are likely to play a decisive role in the polls.

The candidates

PTI candidate Sadaqat Ali Khan Abbasi could bag only 46,810 votes in the 2013 election, but things may turn out different this time. Ghulam Murtaza Satti, the only PPP candidate to win from Murree, Kahuta and Kotli Sattian after 1985 has now joined the PTI and is a candidate of the party for the provincial assembly seat PP-7.

Satti won the NA seat in 2002 with 74,259 votes. He managed 77,978 votes in 2008 but lost to Shahid Khaqan Abbasi who got 99,988 votes. In 2013, Abbasi bagged 133,906 votes and the count for Satti dropped to44,713 finishing third behind PTI’s Sadaqat Abbasi. This time the PTI is banking on the combined strength of its own supporters and the voters of the PPP in the hope of staging an upset.

The popularity of the PPP in the constituency has been on the decline, and its candidate Mehreen Anwar Raja — from Kahuta tehsil — faces the uphill task of competing with the heavyweights.

The religious sentiment

There is a growing popularity of the TLP in the area led by Khadim Hussain Rizvi. Like its leader, its candidates are hitting hard not only at the PML-N but also at their religious opponents, the Deobandis — a group that has been associated with the PML-N since Gen Zia’s dictatorship.

“The Deobandi groups including the Sipah-i-Sahaba and the Jamaat–i-Islami among others, have a support base in Murree but most of the population adheres to the Barelvi ideology,” said Qasim Abbasi, a journalist from the area. He further explained that the impact of the Deobandis has been overestimated — mostly because they built many mosques, and the Sipah-i-Sahaba had also held several rallies in the past.

The Barelvis are making inroads now, and their candidates for NA-57 — TLP’s Javed Akhtar Abbasi and PST’s Mohammad Muneer Satti — are gaining some momentum.

To make matters even more interesting, the Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat — the rebranded Sipah-i-Sahaba — has extended its support to the PML-N, which is going to antagonise the Barelvi inclined voters even more.

“We do not expect to win the seat but we want to show our loyalty to the Holy Prophet (peace be upon him) and damage the PML-N’s vote bank,” said Awais Abbasi. Awais who washes cars for a living, pointed out that everyone in the bazaar had vowed to support the TLP for the sake of their faith.

Traditionally with the PPP, the Shia community has also decided to support the PTI due to the alliance between the Sipah-i-Sahaba types and the PML-N. All things considered, the situation in the constituency seems to be tilted in favour of the PTI.

Published in Dawn, July 14th, 2018