Election 2018 survey results: And the winner is...
PTI voters once again truly believe their party will win the 2018 elections. See all results now.
With polls just around the corner, Dawn.com invited readers to share their thoughts and predictions regarding the 2018 general elections in an online survey.
The snapshot, non-scientific survey that ran from July 4-9 was taken by 18,136 respondents.
Results are below.
Respondent demographics
- Majority aged 18-44
- Almost half from Punjab
- Nearly 20% expats
1. Do you believe the upcoming elections will be free and fair?
- Only 41% are convinced the elections are free and fair
- Trend: The older you are, the more likely you are to say not free
2. Do you plan to vote in the upcoming elections?
A majority do
3. Did you vote in the 2013 elections?
Just over half voted last time
4. If you did vote in 2013, which party did you vote for?
PTI over-represented in this survey, reflective of site visitors
- Trend: The younger you are, the more likely to vote PTI
5. If you have to pick a party to vote for, which party would you choose?
Charts below show whether respondents who voted in 2013 opted to change alliances
- A large majority of those who voted PTI last time plan to do the same in 2018
- Of those who switched, most plan to vote for PML-N
- A majority plan to vote PML-N again
- Almost 1/3 of those who voted PML-N last time plan to vote PTI in 2018
6. Which party do you believe will ACTUALLY win a majority in the elections?
What those who voted PTI in 2013 think
- A large majority of those who voted PTI believe PTI will win in 2018
What those who voted PML-N in 2013 think
- A significant number of those who voted PML-N believe PTI will win this time
What those who voted PPP in 2013 think
- Those who voted PPP in 2013 are divided in their opinion
- The largest % see PTI winning the elections
Responses by age and location
- Trend: The older you are, the more likely you believe PML-N will win
- KP and FATA have the highest % believing PTI will win
7. To what extent will the following impact the outcome of the elections?
Military
Armed forces seen to have biggest impact on the elections out of all institutions/organisations
Judiciary
Almost half believe the judiciary has an impact on the elections
Traditional media
Just over 50% believe traditional media shapes the elections
Social media
Social media is seen to have more impact than traditional media
Election observers (local and international)
Religious organisations
Global powers
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Comments (301) Closed
Jul 18, 2018 02:38pm
Good survey.
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Jul 18, 2018 02:38pm
Awesome report. Beautifully compiled
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Jul 18, 2018 02:39pm
But some pseudo liberals and journalists will even call the above statistics as engineered by establishment.
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Jul 18, 2018 02:41pm
So, PTI will win this Election, as it is evident from ground.
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Jul 18, 2018 02:44pm
Its PTI all the way..
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Jul 18, 2018 02:45pm
Useless waste of time. Such surveys are always biased and involved the preplanned people surveyed.
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Jul 18, 2018 02:48pm
There are number of religious parties and banned organisations taking part in election and I fear things will not be so good in future
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Jul 18, 2018 02:49pm
extremely interesting results of a well designed survey. However bias is evident in the demographics of the responders.
will be even more interesting to compoare with actual results, post hoc
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Jul 18, 2018 02:51pm
This poll is meaningless because it represents Dawn.com readers only - which by any stretch of imagination is not a representation of the total voter base.
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Jul 18, 2018 02:51pm
Good survey
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Jul 18, 2018 02:51pm
Lovely presentation. Yes close to reality.
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Jul 18, 2018 02:52pm
Nice!
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Jul 18, 2018 02:53pm
Please do share a link where we can see research methodology, particularly the sampling frame and sampling strategy to identify and interview respondents. What was sample size and response rate? Any stratification and if post-stratification employed or not? Are results weighted?
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Jul 18, 2018 02:53pm
Most interesting stat: Less than 5% of people in Sindh believe PPP will win coming elections. OMG!
Since 1967, the party has only one motto: Roti, Kapra aur Makaan... and they will never be able to provide these. smh....
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Jul 18, 2018 02:54pm
It was a good survey. In my opinion if the people till the election time do not change their mind regarding their vote then this survey is the right prediction. Nicely done.
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Jul 18, 2018 02:55pm
Social and conventional media has shaped educated population's mindset. Change and corruption words repeatedly used to hammer their brain wiring. Lets see how uneducated and low educated masses vote in Punjab
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Jul 18, 2018 02:56pm
Like the wind was forced to blow in PTI's way during 2013, 2018 seems to be no different. This is evident from the 41 per cent proportion which believes that the elections would be free and fair. PMLN still has the chance to grab more seats. PTI is in closer run though. Single majority is highly likely.
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Jul 18, 2018 02:56pm
best intelligence driven reports.. PTI this time
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Jul 18, 2018 02:56pm
@Arif Aslam Khan Not necessarily as these are Dawn readers with 20% expats who cannot vote unless they travel to Pakistan
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Jul 18, 2018 02:57pm
Not agree that PTI will win easily. This survey was conducted through electronic media and every one know PTI followers are more in numbers on social media and electronic media. But the reality is very different huge population does not read news paper and watch such kind of survey. Real population and voters are living in towns and villages who has significant impact. Therefore please avoid to mislead peoples through channels.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:03pm
Good compilation. I have one confusion though, I live in Karachi in a prominent area , however, neither I nor anyone I know ever had a chance to express opinion in all such poles. I wonder where do they happen and when
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Jul 18, 2018 03:04pm
It will be interesting to see the location of voters switching parties in chart 5.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:04pm
there is no proper sampling done in conducting this online survey..
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Jul 18, 2018 03:05pm
Without rural population input , results are going to be inaccurate and useless
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Jul 18, 2018 03:08pm
Good Survey and it will be great if the same survey is shown with real result after elections. That will be very interesting
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Jul 18, 2018 03:11pm
There is no second opinion on the outcome of this survey. It is a fair survey as reflects.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:14pm
One key demographic that is education and literacy levels not been covered. Thus definitely the survey doesn't represent the opinion of the whole society as the segment with "little or no education" is not covered in it. Thus final outcome maybe or may not be what is mentioned within the study.
Based on this the results can only be termed as opinion of a particular segment of the whole universe.
However we hope for the best and betterment
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Jul 18, 2018 03:14pm
so your scope audience are English speaking social media hungry PTI supports, and they will now not be able to sleep 10 days thinking they have won based on 'READERS SURVEY OF DAWN' the English paper of Pakistan :):):):)
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Jul 18, 2018 03:17pm
PTI zindabad
Under given circumstances, only hope is Imran Khan. He is an honest person, character have no much impact on leader as if he is strong in words and spirit for controlling the corruption, the cancer of our society. Imran Khan already have rich experience of cancer treatment of patients and I do believe , he is quite capable for treatment of cancer of the country. I pray for his long life and wish him successes to achieve the goals well before it is too late
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Jul 18, 2018 03:17pm
Don't find much value in this, as majority of PMLN voters are not online, as compared to PTI voters. I hope PTI don't get a false sense of security from such polls, as I really want them to win. Can't handle another PMLN/PPP lootfest for the next 5 years.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:17pm
Impressed.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:20pm
How far this sample is representative of population is a question. what about cities ? where does the majority of participants come from ? majority of the seats belong to small to medium size cities / towns except for some 20 seats of Karachi and few in Lahore.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:20pm
PTI over-representative in the survey hence the results are no true reflective of the results here. Also 59.13% of the survey participants voted for PTI last time in 2013 but the results were PMLN got a huge majority. So this time also people taking survey here and saying that they will vote PTI will not be true reflective of the final election results.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:20pm
@salman Absolutely agreed.. I dont know how can pseudoliberals label this election as an engineered one after their own newspaper's survey yielded these results..
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Jul 18, 2018 03:21pm
It Cant be considered as a conclusive decision as a lot of PMNL supporters are not really using internet facilities or social media
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Jul 18, 2018 03:21pm
Nicely done. As a scientist when I make presentations I tell my audiences don’t argue with me argue with my data. Your data, while one can argue a small sample size, is convincing for the trends you are concluding. Keep up the great work Dawn!
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Jul 18, 2018 03:29pm
Wrong survey, participants are only who use social media, its mean face book and social media party has won. Majority of population are living in towns/ villages and never use social media/ read news paper watch TV.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:30pm
Don't relax till you have won, these are not the real election results
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Jul 18, 2018 03:30pm
survey shows PTI winning but only 1% of Pakistan actually read Dawn
this leaves all the villages and rural area out
so survey is more a reflection of urban city areas only
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Jul 18, 2018 03:31pm
Its just 19,000 people, this does not depicts actual population response as did happen in the prediction of US elections 2016. But a nice analysis though, especially " The older you are, the more likely you believe PML-N will win" part.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:36pm
Time is near when, as reflected in this survey and as also believed by many, PTI will win and then finally the PTI supporters dreams/expectation will shatter on the basis of 'Promises forgotten' or 'Promises broken'.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:36pm
Survey is no doubt good!
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Jul 18, 2018 03:41pm
Good survey
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Jul 18, 2018 03:43pm
Remember this survey is based on pool taken online. This excludes older people, large part of female, people having no access to internet, living in remote areas etc.
There is considerably big chance of mistake in selecting sample.
Could be grossly misleading.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:44pm
One issue with this survey is that 20% respondents were expats and their vote doesn’t count. But nevertheless an interesting survey.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:44pm
Since almost two thirds respondents voted PTI in 2013 so most of the responses are in line with this percentage. One most interesting observation is that almost 1 / 3 PMLN voters of last elections are switching to vote PTI this time. So assuming that most respondents are urban dwellers PMLN is about to loose quite a good number of marginal winning seats of last election in major cities of Punjab. This means that PMLN is loosing the the edge in its stronghold.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:45pm
It seems you have left out rural masses especially the uneducated women voters. They have a soft corner towards Nawas Sherif and the Begum Sherif. NS would be having plans to exploit their sentiments in PMNL's favour some time around 22nd July or so.
R.S. Menon, Bangalore
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Jul 18, 2018 03:46pm
PTI will never be allowed to form a Government both by PPP and PML-N. They will form alliance to protect the corruption of their leaders. If it does happen it will be sad day for those who voted for them and not for Pakistan
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Jul 18, 2018 03:47pm
It also depicts that PTI did win in 2013; but then it was engineered.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:47pm
18136 participants only! the survey results cannot be extrapolated to the general population.
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Jul 18, 2018 03:52pm
Most people voted for pti in 2013. Why did pmln win?
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Jul 18, 2018 03:53pm
Remarkable effort put in by the Dawn and all supporting teams. Good Job! :)
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Jul 18, 2018 03:59pm
It is difficult to make conclusions on the basis of this survey.
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Jul 18, 2018 04:07pm
Excellent work woth appreciating
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Jul 18, 2018 04:13pm
@M. Saeed why so pessimistic? atleast someone made an effort....appreciate it!!!
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Jul 18, 2018 04:17pm
An excellent survey.It is extremely important to know what exactly the people of Pakistan on the whole
are thinking vis-a-vis the Political Parties.This survey does the justice.
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Jul 18, 2018 04:17pm
surely PTI will win
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Jul 18, 2018 04:19pm
well done on this Dawn. May be time to move to more scientific methods now.
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Jul 18, 2018 04:23pm
I really appreciate Dawn news efforts to conduct aforementioned survey and shared a final result. I took part in this survey. I would also think during survey that PTI take lead in coming election. Mostly respondents from PMl N side said, PTI will wins this is the positive signal for PTI to succeed.
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Jul 18, 2018 04:41pm
An excellent update. pls have this matched after the polls, this will tell us that people stick to their commitments.
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Jul 18, 2018 04:44pm
My vote for TYP
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Jul 18, 2018 04:48pm
I think this survey is very good but I do agree with @NADEEM that it only represents the views of the readers of a single newspaper and the number of respondents, being too low, might provide a result that is not representative of the ground conditons. The survey could be improved if the APNS steps up and collaborates with all of the media houses in the country to produce a survey based upon the responses of readers of different newspapers. In this way the no. of respondents and their diversity could be improved and a look can also be taken into using statistical principles to improve the quality of the results of the survey.
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Jul 18, 2018 04:57pm
Complex matrix! Not indicative of biases and conventional parameters that have over decades dictated the outcome of Pakistan elections
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Jul 18, 2018 04:58pm
Pray positive change come in coming election and our beloved country is back on track of prosperity and dignity.
Pakistan zindabaad
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Jul 18, 2018 04:59pm
This reflects the opinion of the people who have access to internet and can read to respond dawn, and this is a small section of total population.
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Jul 18, 2018 05:00pm
Nice Survey, PTI
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Jul 18, 2018 05:03pm
Ground realities shows PTI will win the Election 2108 but not in majority..
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Jul 18, 2018 05:06pm
overall good survey, pti seem to me will get most of the vote but will need the help of couple of parties to form the govt. that is the plan. plain open field will not be given to any party. there are too many strings attached. keep your fingers crossed, good luck to everybody.
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Jul 18, 2018 05:07pm
Results at serial 4 infact confirms that majority did vote for PTI in 2013 elections but results were later changed through rigging .This fear of rigging is still there and is also confirmed by the results at serial 1.
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Jul 18, 2018 05:08pm
putting simply, ITS PTI!
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Jul 18, 2018 05:08pm
20% expatriates is a big chunk. Practically speaking I don't think their opinion carries any wright.
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Jul 18, 2018 05:10pm
@Nadeem It means literate people really wants Imran khan to win elections
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Jul 18, 2018 05:13pm
No question about it. Imran Khan will be the Prime Minister of Pakistan. Nation have recognised all the past parties about their character.
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Jul 18, 2018 05:13pm
Did not agree ground realities r changed
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Jul 18, 2018 05:27pm
Nice efffort by dawn
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Jul 18, 2018 05:27pm
Nice effort by dawn
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Jul 18, 2018 05:31pm
Nicely presented, but not representative of the ordinary population at all.
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Jul 18, 2018 05:48pm
good
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Jul 18, 2018 05:48pm
@salman It all depends how the questions are asked. It is not surprising that majority of those who voted for one party in the last elections will again vote for that party.Only a small percentage switches.
However, writing on the walls is clear. It is also amazing that significant majority voted PTI in 2013.
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Jul 18, 2018 05:52pm
Pakistan needs strong , stable and visionary govt. Pakistan already tried all parties PPP AND PMN let's Imran Khan should also get Chance. But any body wins should b given full majority and power and support to perform for 5yrs no leg pulling.
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Jul 18, 2018 05:57pm
Excellent Survey. DAWN is doing a great job. I read Dawn as a teenager in Karachi during the 1960's. Now I read Dawn regularly on line.
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Jul 18, 2018 06:00pm
Dont get over confident that PTI will win. Go out and vote for them!!
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Jul 18, 2018 06:06pm
Research methodology? Without that, this poll is as rigged as the elections. Cheers.
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Jul 18, 2018 06:09pm
very informative
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Jul 18, 2018 06:14pm
Nearly 60% were PTI voters, so the survey is not representative.
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Jul 18, 2018 06:23pm
Since the majority of respondents voted PTI in 2013, and this survey shows that many PMLN voters are likely to shift to PTI whilst a smaller percentage of PTI supporters will switch to PMLN we are likely to see a hung parliament, with PTI gaining seats in Punjab but staying the same or losing a seat or two in KPK. Depending on how the PPP in Sindh performs - Asif Zardari could hold the balance of power which is a frightening thought. Most worrying are the number of people who think establishment can influence the poll and attitudes in Balochitstan
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Jul 18, 2018 06:31pm
A point to remember in the 2016 US Elections all Surveys indicated that Hillary Clinton would the elections by a big margin. We shoul take these Surveys with a pinch of salt.
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Jul 18, 2018 06:35pm
Election 2018 is a unique and being held in a different environment! The average voter is a youth, constitutes 65% is made himself more aware of the local, national and international issues Pakistan facing. Political parties other than PTI blaming a favoritism for one party to win, is genuine and correct, though, ECP knew that elections in 2013 were rigged! If these elections are conducted without rigging, PTI would sweep it clean! Good Luck to all !
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Jul 18, 2018 06:36pm
Survey seems to be near reality
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Jul 18, 2018 06:36pm
Wonderful compilation and presentation.
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Jul 18, 2018 07:09pm
The respondents of the survey are very biased. It can be seen in one of the infogrphic that most of the respondents of this survey (about 60%) voted for PTI in 2013, but we know the actual number of seats won by PTI in last election. Secondly, a considerable number of respondents (20%) are expats and are not expected to vote. For these reasons, the result of this survey isn't very reliable.
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Jul 18, 2018 07:11pm
If this election survey was conducted online then it doesn’t mean anything. We already know that if the elections are held on the internet then PTI wins.
Luckily thats not the case.
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Jul 18, 2018 07:11pm
The survey is non-scientific by its own admission. The views feeding end results are highly self-serving to those who cared to participate. So while it is interesting, it should not be taken seriously. People should vote their conscience rather than who is or is perceived to be trying to influence election results.
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Jul 18, 2018 07:15pm
This time Pakistanis have been given two choices
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Jul 18, 2018 07:20pm
Your question:4. If you did vote in 2013, which party did you vote for? show 67% PTI voter means sample of the survey is majority from PTI voters, therefore survey massively support PTI. In addition to that This is an online survey, means the readers ( English newspaper readers..presumably) do not reflect the true sample of overall population.
In my view not the true reflection and also misleading......
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Jul 18, 2018 07:49pm
Good report. Lucky for Pakistan if PTI wins, inshallah.
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Jul 18, 2018 07:50pm
From my ponit of view the Pti shall win the election. Because both parties have given nothing to the peoples of pakistan. System is orthodox ,coruption is high on every day, the big thief the big person. 22 scales of pay in govt, so we have 22class of persons, illitracy is high,vote is equal for illitrate & educated,
Best country in the word & bad system, &so on.
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Jul 18, 2018 07:56pm
A good compilation of largely useless survey as the DAWN readers represent only one segment of population which in turn represent only a fraction of general public.
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Jul 18, 2018 08:19pm
Nicely compiled..
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Jul 18, 2018 08:31pm
Great work Dawn!!!
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Jul 18, 2018 08:36pm
There r many surveys conducted in past during may and June they told (unfortunately) pmln will win I m witnessed first survey which say pti will win strange thing
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Jul 18, 2018 08:59pm
Politician's continue to use poll results that suit them. The majority of Dawn readers are well educated city dwellers. Rural results will vary widely depending on the so called "electable" feudals control on local masses.
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Jul 18, 2018 09:04pm
- I hope people of Pakistan vote their conscious
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Jul 18, 2018 09:17pm
All the questions regarding 'impact' should be broken up into two, 'negative impact' and 'positive impact', except may be the impact of foreign powers which can only be negative.
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Jul 18, 2018 09:21pm
inshallah next pm will be imran khan from karachi sindh
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Jul 18, 2018 09:21pm
Did this survey run online? Good to state as that limits the demographics of those who the survey reached and who may have responded.
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Jul 18, 2018 09:22pm
inshallah next pm of pakistan will be imran khan from karachi sindh
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Jul 18, 2018 09:30pm
The survey is based on readership of Dawn,com Most of our people read urdu newspapers so the it is not true reflection of the ground realities.
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Jul 18, 2018 09:33pm
PTI should win for two main reasons firstly it's integrity is intact as nobody disputed PTI involvement in any corruption scandal and secondly Pakistan need a clean start . Aobr all there is none who is more eligible than IMRAN KHAN.
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Jul 18, 2018 09:35pm
and what percentage of people read English newspaper?
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Jul 18, 2018 09:40pm
About 73 % people believe that military will have an impact on the elections. This is not a good sign for a country trying to become a healthy democracy. It is also not a good sign for the military as they should be apolitical as mandated by the constitution of Pakistan.
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Jul 18, 2018 09:42pm
It will be a hung parliment with no clear majority to any party.
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Jul 18, 2018 09:49pm
Inshallah, its PTI all the way to win with the help of ISI. :)
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Jul 18, 2018 09:57pm
Good pti will win
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Jul 18, 2018 09:59pm
Amongst literates it seems PTI is favourite. Getting the rural population to vote for you won't be as easy.
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Jul 18, 2018 09:59pm
Unrealistic survey.Most of the voters of PPP and PML N are illiterate or less educated who did not participate in this survey so called survey.So in my opinion useless effort and just wastage of time.
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Jul 18, 2018 10:02pm
Good report.
Please keep up the good work.
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Jul 18, 2018 10:07pm
@Nadeem Akhtar "Please do share a link where we can see research methodology, particularly the sampling frame and sampling strategy to identify and interview respondents. What was sample size and response rate? Any stratification and if post-stratification employed or not? Are results weighted?"
This was an online survey. The respondents self-selected themselves. This is why it says it is a non-scientific survey and also the reason that PTI supporters are over-represented as indicated by the question 'who did you vote for in the last election'.
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Jul 18, 2018 10:13pm
@Nouman "Good compilation. I have one confusion though, I live in Karachi in a prominent area , however, neither I nor anyone I know ever had a chance to express opinion in all such poles. I wonder where do they happen and when"
This was an online poll conducted by Dawn on its website.
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Jul 18, 2018 10:19pm
So it is for sure Military will have an impact and outcome is PTI winning so called fair elections
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Jul 18, 2018 10:23pm
Lovely
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Jul 18, 2018 10:27pm
This is reality. An excellent survey. This shows educated majority is with PTI. Junoon wins
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Jul 18, 2018 10:34pm
Aoa I think PML N is a larger party in2018 election and pppp Perform better
PML N ist
PTI 2nd &
PPPP 3rd party in general Election 2018
One Thing I clear Iam not a voter Of PML N
Jazakallah
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Jul 18, 2018 10:38pm
Remember what happened in the US election, underdog surprised everyone and I am hoping we are going have a leader who will be Like Trump and going to work on Making Pakistan Great First.
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Jul 18, 2018 10:39pm
@Ahmed;
' It is also amazing that significant majority voted PTI in 2013.'
Not necessarily very meaningful since we don't really know how the people voted in 2013. Every party including PML-(N) claimed that the 2013 elections were rigged.
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Jul 18, 2018 10:51pm
Good effort. Keep it up
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Jul 18, 2018 11:02pm
This is the most complicated type of survey for ordinary readers as it is not based on which party they will vote or not.
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Jul 18, 2018 11:02pm
I hope Dawn realizes that it's readers barely represent 1% of Pakistan's voting population. Hardly an educational or credible survey.
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Jul 18, 2018 11:21pm
just a paid survey
far away from factual position. A man using abusing language could not be a PM of Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
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Jul 18, 2018 11:38pm
There is a bias in the study. PTI supporters are more likely to be on the web and active. This must be taken into account.
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Jul 18, 2018 11:43pm
Though majority of readers believe that PTI will win this election. However, majority of our population not read dawn newspaper and where around 60% to 65% live in remote area have popular vote Of PPP in Sindh and PML-N in Punjab. In this perspective I believe that these two big parties will get some good seats from remote areas of the country. While no doubt that PTI will achieve better seats from urban and suburban areas of country.
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Jul 19, 2018 12:03am
Survey is against the ground reality
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Jul 19, 2018 12:19am
Very good survey! Have to keep remembering the respondents are Dawn readers and only 18,000 responded - at least we know how Dawn readers think. Wonder what it would be like for readers of other newspapers, both in Urdu and in English. Can Dawn do something about it?
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Jul 19, 2018 12:24am
It is beautifully presented but sampling is unscientific as acknowledged by the authors. It is like bad wine in a beautiful bottle.
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Jul 19, 2018 12:33am
i, i, PTI
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Jul 19, 2018 12:38am
great ... cant wait for PTI to win and the corrupt to get what they deserve
well done Dawn for this analysis... please just stop condoning the corrupt politicians
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Jul 19, 2018 12:43am
Only 0.00009068% of country,s population can not decide the faith that which party will win. As on social media pti is winning but in actual practice , pti will not get enough votes in balochistan ,sindh and most portion in punjab.by claiming on minute survey you can,t judge that pti will win.
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Jul 19, 2018 12:47am
If Dawn's survey says that PTI is going to win the upcoming election then one must have to believe without any doubt that this is going to happen on 25th of July.
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Jul 19, 2018 12:58am
Nice Survey
Seems like PTI all the way.......
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Jul 19, 2018 01:01am
If this survey is any indication, one thing is confirmed, PTI won the last elections hands down, but we all know what happened.
The coming elections show no difference, in fact, more people will vote this time around, more people will vote PTI this time around, more people expect PTI to win this time around.
Now the question is, is Imran Khan ready to lead us in the right direction? No better time than the present time to start showing leadership, and lead by example.
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Jul 19, 2018 01:07am
I feel this kind of electoral surveys have a very little scope to determine the real election out come. Basic argument is that extremely small number of people can be accessed for this types of surveys due to language restraints. Near me and its my observation that in order to determine the prediction to a realistically close point, the scientific statistically sound sampling and data compilation would be an absolute need. This survey does not fulfill this requirement. Yes, generally speaking, IK has very effectively employed the narrative of corruption and shielded it very tactfully from the verification process even the courts appeared to be duped by this onslaught. The biggest despair would be when this bubble of corruption will burst with out any credible base. IK failed to discern between corruption and mis
appropriation. The real culprits would come out of the bureaucratic ranks not politicians. Is going to be a neck to fight between PML-N and PTI.
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Jul 19, 2018 01:14am
From a survey, It looks that may be the PTI will win the election.
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Jul 19, 2018 01:14am
Looking forward to experiance the change. V r in dire need of a good leader. Hopeful to see imran khan as winner.
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Jul 19, 2018 01:25am
@M. Saeed Agreed
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Jul 19, 2018 01:36am
Excellent report ... can I ask, what tool you guys used to generate these results.
Looking forward to hearing back.
Regards
MK
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Jul 19, 2018 02:10am
There is no doubt that if you switch on uhr tv to any mainstream media uhd seee a wave ov pti coming in the main lead n so is the case with social media so far as the results ov this survey are concerned I've no objection with them however I'd be adding that this poll has been conducted online n i believe 30 percnt ov these respondants might not evn caste their votes and we hav to keep one ting in our minds that a huge population ov our state doesnt hav the availability on Internet nor they are literate enough to use it n they surely are going to vote in the polls so the results ov the polls on 25th cud be quite different from these conducted by dawn..
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Jul 19, 2018 02:13am
This is good servy. but I hope win the pmln .I am not supported the any party but I seeing this time.Pakistan in not any party in the power with out pmln.I am proud him I m pakistani.thanku
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Jul 19, 2018 02:50am
The survey construct is skewed just like all the surveys in USA that were predicting an easy win for Clinton. The survey is not grounded in reality as it does not account for the word on the street that really determines the popular vote. Survey like these are heavily skewed towards urban middle class which don't matter. Rural Punjab decides the winner and that is the ground reality. Goodbye Niazi.
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Jul 19, 2018 03:03am
It is as if asking NY Times readers if Trump is right. 100% will say no.
Who reads Dawn anyway? Westernized elite with little interest in those who go to vernacular medium schools. Incidentally, the latter are the majority.
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Jul 19, 2018 03:15am
Dawn should have inserted a disclaimer with this survey say "This is not a scientific survey...." The results of this survey are obviously skewed towards pti as most of social media users (read trolls) have since past many years declared imran as their PM.
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Jul 19, 2018 03:25am
Another day, another Trump. Imran Khan and PTI will win the election.
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Jul 19, 2018 03:36am
Establishment will put a trump type character for 18-24 months so that they enforce strict taxation laws and crackdown on currupt elements. Then it will disolve .......dying itself as democracy beautifully failing and trembling in motherland of democracy, UK.
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Jul 19, 2018 03:48am
At the beginning you have written that this is a non-scientific survey.
What is the purpose of presenting this non- scientific survey?
Where did this idea come from and who does it serve?
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Jul 19, 2018 03:49am
Online surveys are usually filled up by political party trolls don't believe in such surveys
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Jul 19, 2018 03:56am
The call for "New Pakistan" is very popular.
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Jul 19, 2018 03:58am
@Zaffar khan You cannot equate the PPP and PML-N -- the PPP gave nothing but corruption to the country but the PML-N has contributed significantly in their excellent roads, the ending of electric load shedding and the metro system they have established for the masses. Who says the PTI is not corrupt? Has someone seen the corruption record of its government in the KP?
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Jul 19, 2018 04:16am
That the survey, is not representative of facts on the ground is obvious from the fact that, according to it, 60 % or thereabouts during the last election voted PTI -- so why did n't it win, in the last elections?
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Jul 19, 2018 04:30am
i wonder how in 2013 mejority votes were given to pti but yet pmn-l won, for sure dhandili and once again it will happen.
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Jul 19, 2018 05:04am
This survey is a double sided sword. If the PTI will win then it also included the chart according to which it is the military has influenced the results.
In other case the youngster are shown more inclined towards PTI. So if it loose it will be said that youngsters didn’t show up on the Election Day and it’s the biggest problem with the PTI leadership!!!
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Jul 19, 2018 05:46am
Good, i participated in the Sruvey and most of my Predictions were correct and few palces i was lacking in my knowledge, as an Expat and willing to vote for PTI
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Jul 19, 2018 06:50am
@salman "some liberals and journalists will even call the above statistics as engineered by establishment."
Experience, my friend. Most of those participating, have the overriding fear that they are being monitored. Don't be surprised if the results go against the handpicked establishment candidate, in spite of everything that those multimillionaire overlords pulled off.
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Jul 19, 2018 07:05am
I think PTI has to win for betterment of New Pakistan...
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Jul 19, 2018 07:17am
Despite all hurdles n facing IsI n judiciary n NAB etc.,PML N party of bold leadership wd win over all if extraordinary foul game is not resorted to.
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Jul 19, 2018 07:17am
PTI might win, but this survey doesn't tell you anything, as it is only a social media response. No doubt young ppl are with PTI, but still it all will depend on what is on ground,which I don't know, since I am from India. All the best Pakistan.
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Jul 19, 2018 07:32am
Surveys can provide useful information. There is always a margin of error. Sometimes surveys can be really misleading (Trump vs Clinton for example). Rajan
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Jul 19, 2018 07:39am
PTI may not win, but if PTI wins then not as mush as shown.
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Jul 19, 2018 07:58am
Very nicely presented. Not sure why the main stream media and new anchors are not discussing the opinion polls which seem to be favoring PTI but want to discuss how a particular party is being victimize by the so called "Khalai Makhlooq". Surely these soul selling Anchors want the Status Quo to survive and keep benefiting from it. How shameful !
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Jul 19, 2018 08:16am
Engineered and manipulated elections
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Jul 19, 2018 08:22am
@salman All the elections except the 1971 were Rigged /Engineered by those who matters most in this country !
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Jul 19, 2018 09:08am
@Arif Aslam Khan PLEASE NOTE MOST OF THE VOTERS FOR PTI IS FROM KPK, IT DOES NOT MEAN PTI WILL WIN ON NATIONAL LEVEL.
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Jul 19, 2018 09:16am
Survey is an interesting and important information for upcoming elections. Though it reflects only educated and urban community. The rural and "brotheri-ism" vote bank has also a healthier impact not depicted in it.Tehreek e Labaik standing should have also been included separately. More active social media political parties (e.g PTI may have more participants) create bigger impact in such surveys then on ground reality. Any ways good effort.
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Jul 19, 2018 09:17am
Inefficient survey. I'm not being biased but the fact is, those voting for PTI are educated enough to read DAWN and participate in such survey. While those who are opting to vote for PML-N or PPP are mostly uneducated and they don't have access to such survey. That's why results are inclined toward PTI. On the ground, it is a tough competition this time.
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Jul 19, 2018 09:22am
@Arif Aslam Khan Inshalallah
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Jul 19, 2018 09:34am
Wonderful and very interesting feed back
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Jul 19, 2018 09:35am
A lot of Illiterate people's does not vote PTI .therefore results will b different and vote will b caused on narrative of IK and anti IK so it will make a big difference because all political parties are against IK, they will support anti Imran thoughts
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Jul 19, 2018 09:39am
@salman Please see Question No. 4 once again carefully.
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Jul 19, 2018 09:45am
Mostly pti is participating in survey so results are accordingly
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Jul 19, 2018 10:16am
Your survey almost matches the ground reality
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Jul 19, 2018 10:24am
If the survey also bifurcated based upon Income class , results could have been more clear and authentic. Beautiful work none the less.
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Jul 19, 2018 10:26am
Beautifully complied but not at all close to reality, the respondent of the survey almost represent a similar representation and not what the masses believe
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Jul 19, 2018 10:32am
Well problem with my former Leader IK is that he is so overconfident and make himself and workers feel like they will be the only winners where as ground realities are different.
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Jul 19, 2018 10:32am
Survey is a big question mark always in the history of elections in any democratic country. We have to wait and see what happens, although things do impact but rigging in Pakistan election is always been a big factor since we saw 2013 elections
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Jul 19, 2018 10:35am
one thing surveys like this ignore is that the vast majority who cannot read English or who don't have a computer are not represented in this survey.
So this survey doesn't really matter.
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Jul 19, 2018 10:37am
may the best party (according to people of Pakistan) win and form the government.
However my personal opinion (though it does not matter) IK remains a average candidate.(he may be a honest man-monetary matters) but does not look like being honest in lot of other matters,if he wins i see him taking dictation from your deep state for the nest 5 years.
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Jul 19, 2018 10:37am
'Dawn' has given us a good 'News' that the 'Nation' wants change. Kudos to your team for compiling such a big survey.
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Jul 19, 2018 10:49am
great work... quite thorough ..
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Jul 19, 2018 10:50am
pml n will win inshaallah
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Jul 19, 2018 10:55am
Please use your common senses, Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on ME, we have tried and been fooled over and over again, NO more.....VOTE PTI 2018.
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Jul 19, 2018 11:14am
Dawn is well organised publishing organisation, so for its results will also be true. Furthermore it is predicted here that most of pseudo journalist and opponents of PTI will strongly reject this survey and consider it as pre poll rigging and thrown it on the establishment and will say that it is un equal level playing field.
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Jul 19, 2018 11:28am
Well, it is impartial work done by dawn officials for public.Now it will be strongly rejected by pseudo journalists and PTI's opponent parties and will be criticised as pre poll rigging and favouritism by some elements.
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Jul 19, 2018 11:40am
A very comprehensive survey. thanks, dawn
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Jul 19, 2018 11:42am
For me PTI is favourite. Coz Imran Khan is sincere in his saying, have better ideas, want to implement Higher Education system, looking for better health, respect of citizens at home and abroad, maximum engagement of employment, development of Tourism, a source of income. Just need advise to boost exports and up-gradation of industry including agriculture sector. Above all he still away from any record of corruption, believe in truth "wording of Jamiama, his divorced wife". Let the voters of Pakistan give him a chance to lead Government for next five years.
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Jul 19, 2018 11:44am
Social Media and ground realities are two different scenario....I think if fair and free elections will hold. PTI lose KP. Furthermore, if you see the trends thoroughly its seems IK is only PM of Social Media nothing else....
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Jul 19, 2018 12:28pm
Very informative survey . Close to on go round situation
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Jul 19, 2018 12:36pm
Amazing presentation.
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Jul 19, 2018 12:50pm
Excellent Work!!!
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Jul 19, 2018 01:01pm
Great.absolutely correct survey as per ground situations.
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Jul 19, 2018 01:22pm
Very interesting survey
I am from India but I like dawn's content and it's simple language
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Jul 19, 2018 01:26pm
Excellent survey ! Keep up the good work.
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Jul 19, 2018 01:51pm
What ever the statistics say, family politics needs to end in Pakistan. There are people out there other than the sharifs, zardari and Bhutto khandan who may be way better than this lot. We really need to go and vote against status quo. We must try others. Pakistan cannot be in the hands of a handful of families. Today Nawaz tomorrow Maryam, Today Zardari tomorrow Bilawal, Today Shahbaz tomorrow hamza etc. Its as if Pakistan only belongs to these guys. This needs to end.
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Jul 19, 2018 02:05pm
Also worth noting that more than 50% (53.8%) Balochistan respondents believe that it will NOT be a fair and free election, followed by GB - significantly higher than other locations.
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Jul 19, 2018 02:43pm
favorable wind for PML (N) is being created after arrival of Nawaz Sharif.people in opinion that he is true to his statement that's why he returned to Pakistan.
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Jul 19, 2018 02:51pm
Surely, the Dawn got a little time for survey, so number of respondents is almost the equal as that of the poll contenders.. therefore, the survey, though helpful to understand, can not be said to be authentic to the actual public response. Despite the fact, the survey is hereby highly appreciated.
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Jul 19, 2018 02:55pm
The survey is not a good sample to predict the actual results, but one thing is very clear. The educated class in Pakistan clearly favours Imran Khan which is a great sign for him.
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Jul 19, 2018 03:00pm
This is Imran Khan's round and others have their hand tied and asked to start to swim. That was the way in Pakistan two exceptions 1954 and 1970.
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Jul 19, 2018 03:08pm
@salman This does not prove that establishment is not engineering the elections. This only tells you that people believe PTI will win. People's belief can be shaped up by which way they see establishment is leaning. See the impact section, many are saying military and judiciary have an impact!
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Jul 19, 2018 03:27pm
A very interesting survey! One can assume that many young voters like PTI while people over 40 generally like PML. While a majority of Pakistani population is below 40 years of age, their election day turnout is poor. Therefore, it is safe to presume that PML is probably still the most popular party in Pakistan based on election day turnout. If young people do go out and vote, PTI stands a better chance. All this is however subject to elections being free and fair. In a country like Pakistan, they were never free or fair before, and one cannot assume that they'll be free and fair this time too, jokers the Military steps in to assure integrity of votes, and plays a neutral role on election day.
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Jul 19, 2018 03:34pm
Very good explain. Good survey. Almost clear everything.
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Jul 19, 2018 03:35pm
Seems PTI this time..
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Jul 19, 2018 04:00pm
@Abdul Bhatti I think in politics conscience is directly proportional to self interest
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Jul 19, 2018 04:32pm
We wish for a stable and prosperous Pakistan.
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Jul 19, 2018 04:47pm
Great effort.
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Jul 19, 2018 05:16pm
People responded in the survey , are among the readers of DAWN newespaper.
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Jul 19, 2018 05:18pm
looks like pti is winning. good for pakistan.
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Jul 19, 2018 05:20pm
Good survey. However, sample choice does not mention urban vs rural population. Sample seems to be taken from urban population. I fear inclusion of rural population will change the results incredibly.
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Jul 19, 2018 05:27pm
@Shuaib Wadho , time to really wake up
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Jul 19, 2018 05:40pm
Good effort!
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Jul 19, 2018 05:41pm
Really good effort, Thanks Dawn
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Jul 19, 2018 05:48pm
Real reflection
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Jul 19, 2018 05:51pm
@Saad but at least they won't rob the nation
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Jul 19, 2018 05:55pm
Survey's presentation is excellent, however it is highly unrealistic specially if voters are divided on demographic basis!!!
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Jul 19, 2018 05:56pm
I am surprised why some people are asking about methodology, sampling frame, sample size etc. It is a stupid question to ask as they have already mention that it is a non scientific opinion poll.
So those asking this question need to search on internet that what's meant by non scientific study.
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Jul 19, 2018 06:06pm
Good job Dawn, keep up the good work.
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Jul 19, 2018 06:29pm
There is nothing new about this survey. We already know that educated class which in this case represents dawn readers are more likely to vote for PTI. However the swing in PMLN voters is towards PTI makes sense because educated people are more likely to make opinion based on facts which nowadays is the conviction of Nawaz Sharif.
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Jul 19, 2018 06:41pm
Excellent analysis. But the major issue is: Only educated population are involved in this survey and our 80% voters are illiterate. So the result of this survey won't provide you correct sample.
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Jul 19, 2018 07:18pm
Number of participants is quite good but my observation is majority of Internet and social media users are young and more of them probably belong to PTI, could be the reason for the better prediction in favor of PTI.
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Jul 19, 2018 07:32pm
Near to me, PTI has more educated and politically aware followers than any other party.
Even this survey proves my statement. Mostly educated people were able to participate in this online survey.
I hope the literacy rate increase in Pakistan, and people cast their vote more in much better way.
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Jul 19, 2018 08:34pm
One thing that I learned from the latest US presidential elections is 'polls are not a good predictor of the actual elections'. This is not a representative sample anyway.
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Jul 19, 2018 08:57pm
Why are expats even part of this survey when they didn't vote last time, nor will do this time again and has no bearing on the outcome of these elections?
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Jul 19, 2018 09:41pm
Positive effort
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Jul 19, 2018 09:45pm
what a pleasant surprise.
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Jul 19, 2018 10:30pm
59% voted for PTI in 2013 elections in this particular sample. Considering sample being fairly large. These results show the narrative of alleged rigging in 2013 elections to be true.
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Jul 19, 2018 10:31pm
Good survey. Professionally done
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Jul 19, 2018 10:39pm
59% voted for PTI in 2013 elections in this particular sample. Considering sample being fairly large. These results show the narrative of alleged rigging in 2013 elections to be true.
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Jul 20, 2018 12:16am
Very good survey compiled by dawn newspaper. Wish you best of luck. Hope all is well that's end well. It's the people who decide the faith of their own.
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Jul 20, 2018 12:19am
Such polls should be banned because their results might wrongly influence the voters decision on election day. What should be polled and discussed are the agenda of the political parties that might improve or degrade the lives of millions of citizens.
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Jul 20, 2018 12:19am
excellent survey , end of the corroupt n dynstic rule inshallh
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Jul 20, 2018 01:35am
in a disorganized society with so many social economical ethnicity and ideologies layers, a poll like this is waste of time and resources..
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Jul 20, 2018 01:51am
The survey was conducted among 18,000 respondents which is a good sample, however, it was conducted online and that too on an English website. I think the total base of English newspaper website represents only 10% of the population. So this result is among 10% of the population. The ground reality is very different, you have the remaining 90% of the population, most of them are not educated and there are a lot of unlawful practices by political parties which could lead to totally different results, most probably the victory for PML-N and government for PPP in Sindh. I wish I am wrong
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Jul 20, 2018 02:34am
@Nadeem That is why it says it is a non-scientific survey. "The snapshot, non-scientific survey that ran from July 4-9 was taken by 18,136 respondents."
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Jul 20, 2018 03:12am
Beautifully compiled
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Jul 20, 2018 03:53am
@ah totAlly agree with you brother
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Jul 20, 2018 03:55am
@M. Saeed agree sir
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Jul 20, 2018 04:02am
DAWN, always good.
Let's see
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Jul 20, 2018 04:09am
I was thinking a lot being the PTI enthusiast. Things almost stayed the same like last year among educated people who stay updated and recognize what went wrong last 5 years. The only dilemma so far has been those electable candidates in PTI. On one side I didn't like the idea, but on the other side this may give PTI the best chance to come into power. It is the majority 70% of people who go behind slogans, ethnicity and local lords. I hope PTI won't lose the plot because of this.
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Jul 20, 2018 04:29am
Pti will win. IA
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Jul 20, 2018 05:33am
In this survey 59.13% respondents were those who voted for PTI in 2013. All favor will be for PTI. Not a credible poll at all. Ratio of switching to other party of PTI voter responded low.
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Jul 20, 2018 05:53am
PTI will win hands down
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Jul 20, 2018 06:01am
Excellent Questions which covers up core areas!
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Jul 20, 2018 06:35am
Business intelligence at its peak here!! great.
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Jul 20, 2018 06:55am
Too many variables for any human to guess right. I want PTI to get a chance to be of service to Pakistan.
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Jul 20, 2018 07:11am
2018 PTI all the way
Congratulation to PTI
Imran Khan New Pakistan Prime Minister
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Jul 20, 2018 08:04am
Lovely presentation. Yes it is close to reality.
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Jul 20, 2018 08:06am
Lovely presentation. Yes it is close to reality.
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Jul 20, 2018 09:23am
Any online survey in Pakistan can never reflect actual ground situation.
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Jul 20, 2018 09:28am
Please do share this research's link, where could be seen methodology, sampling frame and study time duration of this research, for stratification of viewer & readers. In fact people's sympathies and motivation floats due to social media and political campaign
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Jul 20, 2018 09:35am
Too good to be true.
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Jul 20, 2018 09:42am
Inshallah PTI win
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Jul 20, 2018 10:30am
Great report....
And inshallah PTI will win this time.
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Jul 20, 2018 11:17am
Poverty missmanagme in merit in last 70 year's people hope Imran Khan may change and people will gate relief PTI will come
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Jul 20, 2018 12:20pm
Its a close contest in Punjab . The survey was conducted through electronic media and The PTI has a large number pf social media users. In reality huge population live in area where No News paper and only PTV . A huge amount of population and voters are living in towns and villages who has significant impact. Therefore its not close to reality. But its a good attempt keep working.
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Jul 20, 2018 12:37pm
PTI inshaAllah for a better Pakistan ... with Imran khan
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Jul 20, 2018 12:44pm
The detail graphic representation of pools is appreciated but final summary of over opinion for 2018 Polls depicting party wise position is missing.
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Jul 20, 2018 02:16pm
@M. Saeed
Please give your comments, do not call it a fake. my opinion excellent survey near to reality and people pulse
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Jul 20, 2018 03:00pm
Nicely done
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Jul 20, 2018 03:28pm
People who thinking these elections are free n fair living in foolish haven
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Jul 20, 2018 04:15pm
Pti will win inshahllah
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Jul 20, 2018 06:28pm
pmln will win inshallah
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Jul 20, 2018 07:15pm
As already described that it is a non-scientific snap-shot, it means it is not to be taken seriously. However it can be said that for the moment air blows in favour of IK. But as still 5 days are left the air may change its direction any time and in any direction.
We should all pray what ever is the outcome of the elections it should be in Pakistan's favour.
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Jul 20, 2018 07:58pm
Looks like PTI is going to form the Government!
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Jul 20, 2018 09:55pm
My observation:
At least 2/3 of educated people anywhere in the country would opt to vote for PTI. Dawn may verify it through a survey.
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Jul 20, 2018 10:03pm
Awesome. Wish it to be true.
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Jul 20, 2018 10:14pm
PTI will form majority governments in Pakistan and in the provinces of Punjab and KPK.
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Jul 20, 2018 10:38pm
That's really hopeful.
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Jul 21, 2018 09:01am
@M. Saeed sure sure and where is the evidence to your claim?
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Jul 21, 2018 09:23am
Well presented survey, gives you a glimpse of what social media literate masses think of GE 2018. But still (Being a die-heart PTI supporter) i think a survey shall be added from the rural areas of Pakistan as they will have a huge impact on the outcomes and the turn out on election day.
It's easier to gather people to vote from villages rather than Urban areas. Another thing is the overseas Pakistanis, it should be added that how many from overseas who voted in this survey shall be returning to Pakistan to vote on election day.
But Let's hope PTI wins inshAllah.
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Jul 21, 2018 11:02am
Great survey
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Jul 21, 2018 11:41am
Huge pre-poll rigging against PTI, by not allowing overseas to vote. PTI will have 35 less seats by this design.
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Jul 21, 2018 01:08pm
It was good survey but some issues come out beacuse only readers gave thier thought not all citizens opinion so hope to see pti successed
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Jul 21, 2018 01:09pm
It was very well survey but all Pakistani did not give their opinion
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Jul 21, 2018 02:25pm
It seems plenty of hard work is put into this survey. Very brief and easy to understand.
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Jul 21, 2018 02:51pm
@Arif Aslam Khan inshaAllah
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Jul 21, 2018 03:11pm
Great 2018 General Elections Survey by DAWN, by far, the # One English Daily of the world. Keep it up and hang on tough.
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Jul 21, 2018 04:37pm
Extremely informative
Suggestions (for next survey):
Provincial statics on -
1. Urban/rural
2. Provincial - North, Central, South
Good news, you made my day - Thank you
There is hope for a CHANGE we all wish for
We need to ALL go out and vote for our wish/dream
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Jul 21, 2018 06:22pm
p t i my vote
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Jul 21, 2018 07:10pm
@Nadeem
You hit the nail on the head. How the silent citizen votes, will decide the outcome. Those who make the most noise are empty vessels.
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Jul 21, 2018 07:32pm
Nice work!
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Jul 21, 2018 08:58pm
Great survey
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Jul 21, 2018 11:11pm
Really loved the survey. good report
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Jul 22, 2018 12:16am
This report shows one more thing, a majority of the readers of Dawn are educated. It shows that if you are educated you are likely to vote for PTI.
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Jul 22, 2018 12:16am
Very in-depth survey report. Well done.
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Jul 22, 2018 10:22am
PTI will will and IK is PM select. And nation is back to square one. The same story will continue.
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Jul 22, 2018 10:31am
@Arif Aslam Khan pti insaAllah
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Jul 22, 2018 01:56pm
PPP like Congress in India seems to be a fading party.
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Jul 22, 2018 02:24pm
PTI will grab top position this time Inshallah.
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Jul 22, 2018 03:32pm
This Poll only is a snap poll.
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Jul 22, 2018 03:33pm
this survey is a snap survey.
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Jul 22, 2018 04:58pm
Finally, people are speaking up. Alhumdulillah
Thanks to IK for turning family politics into healthy competition.
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Jul 22, 2018 06:54pm
I is a very good report and very professionally done. Great job, DAWN. However, I believe that for a large population like that of Pakistan, this sample size is very small and not truly representative.
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Jul 22, 2018 07:29pm
100%accurate survey
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Jul 22, 2018 07:30pm
Excellent. Let's hope we can see a change in leadership this time.
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