FOR 45-year-old Rashid Hasan, the July 25 polls offer nothing different from any of the several elections that have been held since 1993, when he cast the first vote of his life. Hasan, who holds a management position at a school in Karachi, dismisses the fact that in the elections held between 1993 and 2013, his favourite party the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) — which is now a part of the recently-revived alliance of five religio-political parties the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) — had little chance of victory against the erstwhile formidable Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). Why though?

Hasan and several people who agree with his political views prefer to vote for candidates who they believe have a “clean character”. From 1993 onwards, Hasan has voted for his favourite candidates even if they had small chance of winning.

But Elections 2018 will feature a fragmented MQM, so shouldn’t that boost the MMA’s hope for a better showing on July 25?

Take a look: From spotlight to backstage: the MMA’s decline into obscurity

Although Hasan and another supporter at the Jamaat’s Idara Noor-i-Haq in North Nazimabad don’t appear too enthusiastic about this proposition, a Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan candidate, contesting from NA-239 Korangi-I, agrees. “Yes, we have a fair chance [of winning] this time,” Mohammed Haleem Khan Ghori tells Dawn.

Campaigning for 21 NA and 44 Sindh Assembly seats in Karachi yet to hit peak

“The vote that used to be cast in the name of Mohajir is divided. From my constituency alone, several Mohajir factions are in the fray. True, the latest differences in the MQM-Pakistan that played out for months putting its unity to a bitter test and even started to be known as MQM-P-Bahadurabad Group (Dr Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui) and PIB Colony Group (Dr Farooq Sattar) have apparently been bridged since they’ve managed to field a consensus candidate, there are other contenders banking on the Urdu-speaking community such as the one with support from former Karachi nazim Mustafa Kamal whose Pak Sarzameen Party mainly comprises old MQM hands, as well as the gentleman competing under the banner of the Mohajir Qaumi Movement Pakistan,” Mr Ghori claims.

But this is not the only reason keeping the JUP man optimistic. A component of the MMA, the JUP, much before the birth of the Altaf Hussain-led MQM, used to have a strong support base in the area. Allama Abdul Mustafa Al Azhari had won an NA seat from the platform of the JUP when it was headed by Allama Shah Ahmed Noorani. Later, the JUP head was appointed the first chief of the MMA, formed during retired Gen Pervez Musharraf’s tenure. Maulana Noorani held the presidency of the then six-party conglomerate until his sudden death from a heart attack shortly before he was supposed to address a press conference in Islamabad on Dec 11, 2003.

The other factor that might help Mr Ghori steal the show is the MMA’s obvious appeal to the masses for sectarian unity at the ballot. The optimism prima facie is fair, after all MMA offers everyone a you-name-it-and-you-have-it kind of choice: there are Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam of Maulana Fazulr Rehman and Jamaat-i-Islami of Sirajul Haq if you belong to the Deobandi school of thought; there is JUP to attract those who follow the Barelvi tradition, Islami Tehreek Pakistan to seek vote from among the Shia community and then there is Jamiat Ahle Hadith for voters who come from the Ahle Hadith school of thought. This aspect, of course, needs to be taken into consideration in addition to these priority areas of action if the MMA’s election symbol ‘book’ gets stamped by more voters than any diehard supporter of the alliance has ever thought of: implementation of Nizam-i-Mustafa, protection of national freedom, Islamic system of justice, respectable employment for the youth, economic prosperity, promotion of agriculture, protection of women’s and minorities’ rights and eradication of sectarian bias.

Yet, the road for Mr Ghori and MMA’s other candidates in Karachi vying for a place in National or Sindh Assemblies may prove to be bumpy. Up for grabs in Karachi are 21 seats of National Assembly and 44 of Sindh Assembly. The alliance’s hope to seek support among the religious right notwithstanding, the MMA has never gotten the number of seats required to form a government at the centre. The best electoral result it was able to produce happened in 2002, when it had 60 seats in the National Assembly from all over the country, while its share in Karachi’s NA spoils was five seats, with six seats in the Sindh Assembly.

We have high hopes, but it’s a game that players need to play with a lot of money. Our candidates don’t have such deep pockets.

MMA secretary general Liaquat Baloch

Can the MMA replay its 2002 act on July 25, 2018? “It’s going to be much better as far as Karachi is concerned,” says JUI-F’s Qari Usman, who is in the run from the Sindh Assembly’s PS-114 constituency. “InshaAllah, this time, the MMA will make it double — 10 NA and 12-13 provincial assembly seats,” he continues, beaming.

It was apparent from the conversation that Qari Usman’s confidence stemmed from a possible division among voters not only because of the MQM’s infighting, but also because of serious attempts being made by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf and Pakistan Peoples Party to pull off surprise showings in sundry constituencies of Karachi.

However, what Qari Usman or Mr Ghori did not mention was the possibility of a vote split in their own backyard. Election 2018 has thrown up a new player and as far as its strength at fielding candidates is concerned, this new entity has surprised both political parties as well as the observers. The Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), which came into prominence recently, has entered the competition seeking as many as 150 places in the 272-seat lower house of parliament. With noticeable performance in some by-elections, it’s fair to guess that the TLP will play a spoiler’s role for the MMA in Karachi.

But a calm Mairjul Huda Siddiqui of Jamaat-i-Islami, running from NA-256 on the MMA platform, exudes confidence while talking about his position in the area. Discounting all his rivals, including the TLP’s man, he points out that in the 2013 election, he had grabbed over 36,000 votes despite the fact that his party had announced a boycott of the elections at around 1pm on polling day. In 2013, he recalls, there was no electoral alliance and therefore he did not have the support of the parties now constituting the MMA.

Mr Siddiqui’s views sound plausible when Mr Ghori, the MMA’s candidate looking to win in NA-239, tells Dawn that during a visit to an Imambargah in his constituency, he got an encouraging response. According to Mr Ghori, the central man at the Imambargah told him that no MMA candidate had ever bothered to visit the Shia community and that they would extend support to the MMA.

But is there any candidate from the Islami Tehreek Pakistan, the party that represents Shia voice in the MMA? Yes, there is at least one. Sarwar Ali, a social worker, is in the field for the Sindh Assembly’s seat of PS-105. Talking to Dawn, Mr Ali endorses Mr Ghori’s point in a slightly different way. Sarwar Ali along with the MMA’s candidate for the National Assembly seat in the area (NA-245), Advocate Saifuddin, has been going door-to-door and he says that when people promise support, they do so for the MMA no matter who the alliance has fielded. A worker at Mr Ali’s election camp in the Shia-dominated Soldier Bazaar area says people are excited and looking forward to victory. However, generally, electioneering across the city is yet to gather pace.

In response to a question about their prospects in the elections, MMA secretary general Liaquat Baloch speaking to Dawn from Lahore expressed guarded optimism. “We have high hopes, but it’s a game that players need to play with a lot of money. Our candidates don’t have such deep pockets,” says Mr Baloch, questioning the Election Commission of Pakistan’s ability to keep the expenses within the prescribed limit, which is Rs4 million for an NA candidate and Rs2m for someone running for a provincial assembly seat.

Published in Dawn, July 17th, 2018