GUJRAT: The main rivals in the July 25 election, the PML N and PTI may win one seat each in two National Assembly constituencies of Mandi Bahauddin district as they go neck-and-neck on four Punjab Assembly seats while the independent candidates are also not out of the game.

Though the PPP, which remained very strong in the area from 1970 till 2008, has fielded its candidates on all seats of the district but none of them is said to be a front-runner whereas candidates of MMA and TLP (Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan) are also in the run on some seats of the district.

The PML-N has been in a big trouble on NA-85 (old NA-108) (Mandi Bahauddin-Phalia) where it had to change the candidate after veteran politician and ex-federal minister Mumtaz Ahmed Tarar withdrew his candidature on health grounds and recommended his nephew for the party ticket.

However, the party leadership pitched a newcomer, Mushahid Raza of Chillanwala, on this seat. Raza is said to be a business partner and close friend of retired Capt Safdar, son-in-law of Nawaz Sharif.

The PTI has nominated Haji Imtiaz Ahmed, brother of former MNA Ijaz Chaudhry, whereas the PPP has fielded former MPA from Phalia Asif Basheer Bhagat, who had secured some 35,000 votes in the by-polls of 2015. Riaz Farooq Sahi of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) is also in the run.

In NA-85, the local analysts give an edge to the PTI over the PML-N since the latter has fielded a new candidate unlike the PTI whose aspirant Haji Imtiaz has been an active part of the politics since 2001 and remained naib district nazim and Tehsil Nazim of Mandi Bahauddin in 2001 and 2005, respectively.

Of the two PA seats falling under NA-85, the PML-N has fielded former provincial minister Hameeda Waheedudin on PP-65 (Mandi Bahauddin city) against the PTI’s Arshad Mehmood Gondal and PPP nominated Azmatullah Marth. An interesting contest is being expected between PML N and PTI as Hameeda has managed to win the support of her rival ex-MPA Dewan Mushtaq group whereas MMA has also announced to support her on this seat.

In PP-66 (Phalia), the PTI somehow managed to accommodate former PPP MNA Tariq Tarrar Raika as a candidate for PP-66 (Phalia) who had contested the 2015 by-polls as a PTI candidate but lost at the hands of Mumtaz Tarrar of the PML-N.

In the constituency, the PML-N has again trusted its former MPA Tariq Yaqoob Rizvi, brother of former provincial minister he late Pir Binyamin Rizvi while the PPP’s Nawaz Tarar and the MMA’s Ehtesham Faraz Mangat are also in the run. A tough competition between the PTI and PML-N is expected here.

In NA-86 (old NA-109) Malakwal-Qadirabad, it will be an interesting contest between two traditional rivals and bigwigs of Mandi Bahauddin politics — the PTI’s Nazar Muhammad Gondal and former MNA Nasir Iqbal Bosal of the PML-N.

The analysts say the PML-N’s Nasir Bosal is having a slight edge over his rival Nazar Gondal since Bosal has managed to strike deals with independent candidates on two PA seats falling under his constituency and the PML-Q-backed independent candidate, Sajid Ahmed Bhatti, is said to have made an adjustment with the Bosals since both the Bosals and Bhatti group had been the local allies since long.

Though Nazar Gondal had lost the 2013 election on the PPP ticket with a heavy margin with just 43,574 votes against PML N’s Nasir Bosal’s 133,128 votes but the vast difference of votes has now shrunk since Nazar Gondal who is now with the PTI worked hard to improve his support. The analysts say the PML N is still having a slight edge over the PTI on this NA seat.

Meanwhile, the situation in two PA constituencies falling under NA-86 has been very complicated, particularly for the PML-N candidates as the party’s nominee for the NA seat Nasir Bosal has been engaged in local seat adjustments with influential independent contenders.

For PP-67 (Qadirabad), the PML-N has fielded Sikandar Hayat Gondal and the PTI has awarded a ticket to Shahid Naseem Mattu. A PML-Q-backed independent candidate, Sajid Ahmed Bhatti, has entered into a local alliance with the Bosal group. The Bhatti family has strong roots in the constituency that’s why the PML-Q’s Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and his scion Moonis Elahi had won that seat in 2008 and 2013, respectively, even without personally canvassing in the constituency and Mr Bhatti is said to have an edge on this seat.

In PP-68 (Malakwal), the PML-N has ignored its former MPA Shafqat Gondal and awarded a ticket to Pir Mahfooz Shah Mushhadi who had been elected MPA on the party ticket from another PA seat in 2013.

The PTI has fielded Gulraiz Afzal Chan, a relative of Nazar Gondal and Nadeem Afzal Chan, whereas former PML-Q MPA Arif Gondal of Chimoana and local PML-N leader Qamar Khan are also in the run as independent candidates on this seat; however, the PTI’s Gulraiz Chan is said to have a slight edge over rivals.

Published in Dawn, July 21st, 2018