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It all happened within 24 hours — from a condescending ‘yes’ to Pakistan’s talk offer to a rebuke in the crudest tenor. The Indian volte-face on the proposed meeting between the Pakistani and Indian foreign ministers on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York was astonishing. The reason for the reversal could not be more preposterous.
The Modi government cited an earlier incident of the killing of Indian security personnel in India-held Kashmir and the issuance by Pakistan of postage stamps with Burhan Wani’s portrait for rejecting the talks offer. The situation has worsened, with the Indian army chief threatening to launch a ‘surgical strike’ across the Line of Control to ‘teach Pakistan a lesson’.
Such a rapid turn of events is confounding even in the state of extreme volatility that exists in Pakistan-India relations. The exchange of goodwill messages following the installation of the new government in Pakistan had raised some hope of breaking the ice; instead, tensions have escalated with the trading of barbs. That narrow window of opportunity has been lost yet again because of the intransigence of the Modi government.
It is obvious that internal political dynamics have been the main cause of New Delhi’s turnaround. The Modi government was under pressure from both within and outside the BJP to call off the talks. Not only did the pressure reportedly come from the hardliners within the ruling BJP but the decision was also strongly criticised by the Congress and other opposition groups. With a few months left for general elections in India, the Modi government, that is facing a corruption scandal regarding a defence deal with France, cannot afford to get locked into another controversy, though the proposed meeting between the foreign ministers was supposed to be only an informal interaction.
It is evident that there is no sign of flexibility in India’s hard-line position on the resumption of bilateral talks.
The language used in the statement and the direct verbal attack on the Pakistani prime minister who had gone the extra mile in offering dialogue demonstrated the pettiness of the Modi government. More shocking has been the belligerence demonstrated by the Indian army chief. It may be because of the worsening situation in India-occupied Kashmir. Despite brutal repression, the Indian army has failed to contain the mass uprising there.
It is evident that there is no sign of flexibility in India’s hard-line position on the resumption of bilateral talks at least before the elections. Like in the past, the BJP will certainly use anti-Pakistan rhetoric to try and win votes particularly in the Hindu belt. In fact, there is a possibility of escalation in violence along the LoC before the polls. The threat by the Indian army chief provides some context to the apprehension.
Given this situation was it prudent of the new government to request the meeting in the first place? The prime minister has also come under attack from opposition groups for what they call a premature move and showing an unnecessary keenness to reach out to New Delhi. There may be some logic in the argument that Imran Khan should not have requested the meeting himself, and to leave the issue to the foreign office. But there is no need for making such a big deal over the oversight.
Surely no breakthrough was expected even if the meeting in New York had taken place. Yet, there is no loss of face for Pakistan after India’s rejection. In fact, it reflects more on New Delhi’s obduracy. The foreign office’s reaction to India’s backtracking was appropriate. It expressed disappointment over the Indian decision and called it ‘ill-considered’ and waste of a ‘serious opportunity’.
“We choose not to further comment beyond saying that these comments are against all norms of civilised discourse and diplomatic communication,” the statement said. But a question mark hangs over the remarks made by Imran Khan targeting the Indian prime minister. There was certainly no need for that. One must learn to show restraint even in the face of the worst provocation. There is still a long way to go before Khan learns the ropes of diplomacy.
There is also the question about the ISPR chief’s lengthy remarks on the whole episode. Indeed, the Indian general made a highly provocative statement but one can ask if we should flaunt our status as a nuclear state at each provocation. An ISPR press release rebutting the Indian belligerence would have been sufficient. It should be left to the foreign ministry to respond to such irrational remarks by the Indian government. Too many voices generate unnecessary confusion and weaken our position.
Notwithstanding the Indian hostility, Pakistan should continue with its efforts for regional peace. The easing of tensions along our borders will allow the government to focus more on the economy and the well-being of our people. Prime Minister Khan was right when he declared that his government would take two steps if India took one.
Now, one has to wait for India to take that one step. The initiative taken by the government on dialogue with New Delhi must not be made controversial despite the fact that the issue could have been handled better. There is a broader consensus among all political parties and other stakeholders on the need for a more pragmatic approach in dealing with India and other neighbouring countries.
According to an article in the New York Times, even before the elections, the security establishment had quietly reached out to India for the resumption of peace talks. Apparently, an offer was made to “resume on-and-off talks with India” over the LoC ceasefire agreement. But there was no positive response from India.
Indeed, it cannot be a one-sided initiative. Bilateral talks have been suspended for the past several years now. It is evident that the Modi government will not respond to any Pakistani initiative before the polls. New Delhi is not even willing to let Pakistan host the Saarc summit. Instead of lamenting India’s rejection of any senior-official-level contact, we must move on. It is also not in our interest to escalate the situation. Let’s wait for India to take a more rational approach.
The writer is an author and journalist.
Twitter: @hidhussain
Published in Dawn, September 26th, 2018
