SRINAGAR: The most deadly year in a decade has left India-held Kashmir facing a grim future with armed groups and the New Delhi government digging in for an even fiercer battle in 2019, experts say.

Indian forces allege they killed two infiltrators coming on New Year’s Eve. But Kashmiri politicians and independent Indian experts say the presence of 500,000 troops in the disputed Himalayan region and an election in India in 2019 leaves little hope for an end to the bloodshed.

The Jammu-Kashmir Coalition of Civil Society (JKCCS), a human rights group, listed 586 dead in its annual 2018 toll: 267 fighters, 160 civilians — including 31 children — and the rest, state police and Indian armed forces.

After the most deadly year in a decade, no let-up is expected in violent incidents

Its list does not include the dozens killed in firing across the de facto border between India-held Kashmir and Azad Kashmir. The numbers of slain fighters and security forces are both the highest for a decade, as are the nearly 800 recorded clashes.

The bleak statistics all highlight the effects of a more intense Indian government campaign — Operation All-Out — to flush out armed groups who want an independent Kashmir or merger with Pakistan.

Even the 20 recorded cases of suicide among Indian forces in Kashmir is a record, according to the JKCCS.

Youth support

The 12.5 million population in India-held Kashmir has given strong support to the armed groups’ political agenda. But the nationalist government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken a hard line on Kashmir and Pakistan. With his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeking a new term this year, there will be no let-up in the military showdown, according to experts.

“I don’t expect anything to change in the coming year or so. Life will continue to be uncertain,” political analyst Siddiq Wahid, of the University of Kashmir, said.

“An election year in India means there will be an uptick in hard-line Hindutva politics over Kashmir. The BJP will try to strongly align Kashmir with its muscular Hindu nationalism,” he said.

Security authorities acknowledge that the hardening positions mean more young Kashmiri men are joining armed groups.

A police official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that at least 128 Kashmiri youth had joined underground groups in 2018 — 70 per cent more than the previous year. “There has been no effort to engage the opinion [of Kashmiris] in any kind of a political process,” said Manoj Joshi from the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think-tank.

“So it is not surprising that the disaffected young are taking to militancy in larger numbers,” he said.

The atmosphere of fear and mistrust runs deep. Authorities accuse fighters of targeting the families of police and security forces who have detained the relatives of wanted fighters.

Kashmiri civilians in turn are showing a greater willingness to express public defiance. Many take to the streets hurling stones at the Indian army when they lay siege to fighters’ hideouts.

Thousands attended the funeral in December of 14-year-old Muddassir Ahmad Parrey, believed to be the youngest fighter killed in the armed campaign against India since 1989.

Published in Dawn, January 2nd, 2019