WASHINGTON: The US intelligence community has told Congress that neither the Afghan government nor the Taliban can win the war in Afghanistan even if the United States maintains current level of its support to Kabul.

In their annual report on worldwide security threats presented to Congress on Tuesday, US intelligence agencies warned that the situation in Afghanistan and the upcoming parliamentary elections in India would add to existing tensions in South Asia.

They also assessed that tensions between India and Pakistan would remain high this year as well and skirmishes along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir would continue. The report, however, did not mention the possibility of a major India-Pakistan clash in 2019.

The US agencies also expressed concerns about Pakistan’s nuclear programme, saying: “We remain concerned about Pakistan’s continued development and control of nuclear weapons.” They did not express similar concerns about India’s nuclear programme.

Tensions between Pakistan, India likely to persist this year, says report presented to Congress

Director Daniel Coats of the US National Intelligence presented the report before the Senate Intelligence Committee on behalf of the agencies. Heads of the Central Intelligence Agency, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Defence Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency and Geospatial-Intelligence Agency also attended the annual hearing.

“We assess that neither the Afghan government nor the Taliban will be able to gain a strategic military advantage in the Afghan war in the coming year even if coalition support remains at current levels,” Coats told the Senate panel that included some candidates for the 2020 presidential elections.

“However, current efforts to achieve an agreement with the Taliban and decisions on a possible withdrawal of US troops, could play a key role in shaping the directions of the country in the coming years,” he added.

Coats claimed that “militant groups supported by Pakistan will continue to take advantage of their safe haven in Pakistan to plan and conduct attacks in neighbouring countries, and possibly beyond”.

He said this year the focus of the South Asian region would be centred on the potential turmoil surrounding Afghanistan’s upcoming presidential election, ongoing negotiations with the Taliban and the militants’ large-scale recent attacks.

In a written statement released at the hearing, Coats elaborated on some of the points he made in his presentation, noting that the challenges facing South Asian states would grow this year because of Afghanistan’s presidential election in mid-July, the Taliban’s large-scale attacks, “Pakistan’s recalcitrance in dealing with militant groups, and Indian elections that risk communal violence”.

India-Pakistan tensions

The written statement argued that cross-border terrorism, firing across LoC, “divisive national elections” in India, and Islamabad’s perception of its position with the United States relative to India “will contribute to strained India-Pakistan relations at least through May 2019, the deadline for the Indian elections, and probably beyond”.

The statement noted that despite limited confidence-building measures — such as both countries recommitting in May 2018 to the 2003 ceasefire along the LoC — continued terrorist attacks and firing across the de facto border in Kashmir have “hardened each country’s position and reduced their political will to seek rapprochement”.

The US intelligence agencies warned that “political manoeuvring resulting from the Indian national elections probably will further constrain near-term opportunities for improving (India-Pakistan) ties”.

The statement also stressed Pakistan’s alleged support to the Taliban, claiming that militant groups would “continue to take advantage of their supposed safe havens in Pakistan to plan and conduct attacks in India and Afghanistan, including against US interests”.

“Islamabad’s narrow approach to counterterrorism cooperation — using some groups as policy tools and confronting only the militant groups that directly threaten Pakistan — almost certainly will frustrate US counterterrorism efforts against the Taliban,” the statement added.

The US intelligence agencies completely ignored Pakistan’s strong denials of such allegations and failed to mention the concrete support Islamabad has provided to US efforts for a peace deal with the Taliban.

Afghanistan stalemate

The agencies said that although Afghan forces had generally secured cities and other government strongholds, the Taliban had increased large-scale attacks. Afghan security also suffered from a large number of troops being tied down in defensive missions, mobility shortfalls, and a lack of reliable personnel to hold recaptured territory, they added.

The report also noted that policies of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first term had deepened communal tensions in some BJP-governed states, adding that “Hindu nationalist state leaders might view a Hindu-nationalist campaign as a signal to incite low-level violence to animate their supporters”.

Increasing communal clashes “could alienate Indian Muslims and allow Islamist terrorist groups in India to expand their influence”, the report added.

Published in Dawn, January 31st, 2019