Bank of England slashes UK growth outlook over ‘fog of Brexit’

Published February 8, 2019
UK economic growth appears to have weakened further in early 2019, says BoE. ─ Wikimedia Commons
UK economic growth appears to have weakened further in early 2019, says BoE. ─ Wikimedia Commons

LONDON: The Bank of England on Thursday slashed its forecast for UK growth this year to 1.2 per cent from 1.7pc, blaming the downgrade on a global economic slowdown and “the fog of Brexit”.

“UK economic growth slowed in late 2018 and appears to have weakened further in early 2019,” the BoE said after keeping its main interest rate at 0.75pc.

“This slowdown mainly reflects softer activity abroad and the greater effects from Brexit uncertainties at home,” it added.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned that Britain was “not prepared” for a no-deal Brexit.

“Although many companies are stepping up their contingency planning, the economy as a whole is still not yet prepared for a no-deal no-transition exit,” Carney told a press conference to elaborate on the BoE’s latest forecasts.

“The fog of Brexit is causing short term volatility in the economic data and more fundamentally it is creating a series of tensions in the economy.

Tensions for business,” he added.

The European Union and Britain agreed to hold further talks to try and save their Brexit deal, after May met European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels on Thursday.

Plans for Britain to leave the EU on March 29 under a withdrawal agreement signed last year were thrown into doubt when British lawmakers overwhelmingly rejected the accord last month.

Meanwhile should British GDP come in at 1.2pc, it will be the country’s weakest output in a decade.

In November the BoE had forecast 2019 growth of 1.7pc.

“Brexit uncertainties had intensified considerably since the Committee’s November meeting,” the BoE said Thursday.

“The economic outlook will continue to depend significantly on the nature of EU withdrawal,” it added.

The BoE also slashed its forecast for 2020 UK growth - to 1.5pc from 1.7pc The downgrades sent the pound sinking under $1.29, while the euro rebounded close to 88 pence.

“The pound has dropped to its lowest (dollar) level in almost three weeks... although it should be stated that the market reaction is fairly muted,” noted XTB analyst David Cheetham.

Global slowdown: Output in Britain’s dominant service sector almost ground to a halt in January, data showed this week.

The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 50.1 — the lowest level in two and a half years — down from 51.2 a month earlier.

Published in Dawn, February 8th, 2019

Follow Dawn Business on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business, finance and tech from Pakistan and across the world.

Opinion

Editorial

Military convictions
Updated 22 Dec, 2024

Military convictions

Pakistan’s democracy, still finding its feet, cannot afford such compromises on core democratic values.
Need for talks
22 Dec, 2024

Need for talks

FOR a long time now, the country has been in the grip of relentless political uncertainty, featuring the...
Vulnerable vaccinators
22 Dec, 2024

Vulnerable vaccinators

THE campaign to eradicate polio from Pakistan cannot succeed unless the safety of vaccinators and security personnel...
Strange claim
Updated 21 Dec, 2024

Strange claim

In all likelihood, Pakistan and US will continue to be ‘frenemies'.
Media strangulation
Updated 21 Dec, 2024

Media strangulation

Administration must decide whether it wishes to be remembered as an enabler or an executioner of press freedom.
Israeli rampage
21 Dec, 2024

Israeli rampage

ALONG with the genocide in Gaza, Israel has embarked on a regional rampage, attacking Arab and Muslim states with...