In the fight between PTI and its problems, the winner is increasingly becoming clear.

The last week took a heavy toll on the struggling government. The punches kept on rolling and the pain kept on increasing. There were many external manifestations of these aches and pains that combined to reinforce a pattern that has begun to define PTI in government. The pattern is drawing the conclusion very clearly: the government is at war with itself. Within the confines of the Red Zone, it is PTI vs PTI. And the casualties are mounting.

The week’s main casualty was FBR Chairman Shabbar Zaidi. He has limped back to Karachi a dejected, frustrated and burnt out man. Although he has not sent in his formal resignation yet, insiders say chances of his returning to his job are slimmer than slim. His unceremonious departure is a blow to Prime Minister Imran Khan and to his vision of reforming the tax collection machinery. Mr Zaidi was the prime minister’s choice as FBR chairman, and this unconventional choice gelled in with his relentless focus on getting Pakistanis to pay tax.

Read: Uncertainty hits FBR as Shabbar proceeds on leave again

Mr Zaidi’s departure is a clear signal that the status quo has defeated him. Senior government officials have told me his frustrations had started mounting a few months ago and he had shared them with key people. He was given assurances and asked to carry on. And yet not much changed. The discord within the prime minister’s economic team kept growing, as did the stress level of Mr Zaidi.

The final straw was an unpleasant spat with Finance Adviser Abdul Hafeez Shaikh. Now the government is desperately looking for a new FBR chairman at a time when the IMF team is in town to review Pakistan’s progress.

And that’s the other problem. The revenue shortfall is massive. There is no way Pakistan can meet the IMF target unless Hafeez Shaikh decides to slap additional taxes on citizens through a mini-budget. This would also mean a sharp hike in gas price that the government is delaying. But the inevitable can only be delayed so far. When it happens, the inflation will increase even more. How much more can the citizen endure before the political cost for the government becomes just too much?

Big decisions are pending. Should the government try and renegotiate terms with the IMF to ease the burden? If so, what bargaining chips does the government hold which may bring the IMF back to the negotiating table? Is there a political angle to this aspect in terms of Pakistan’s delicate relationship with the United States? Is that in turn linked to what is happening in Afghanistan? And if that is so, then deft leadership is needed at this crucial juncture to navigate these dangerous waters.

But PTI leaders are too busy fighting each other to focus on navigation. The wheat crisis — mismanaged as it was — has brought the feuding into sharper focus. In particular, the prime minister’s economic team is feeling the heat. Officials who have witnessed high-level meetings tell me that cabinet members dealing with energy, petroleum, finance, revenue and planning are finding it difficult to build a smooth working relationship. Personal attacks have led to bruised egos and deep grudges that are becoming obstacles in smooth economic governance.

There are similar problems within the media team. For a government that obsesses with media, the performance of its team is less than scintillating. The government is being raked over coals in the media over a long line of issues, led of course by the state of the economy and the unbearable inflation. And yet, the government spokespeople have nothing much to show for their media strategy other than rambling press conferences and unfocused statements. Within the ranks of PTI, the grumbling is getting louder and louder that their communication strategy is in tatters.

There’s more such bad news. The problems with the allies are indicative of how at the senior level within the party there appears to be a lack of clarity. The change in the committee negotiating with the PML-Q has taken everyone by surprise. Why was the committee reconstituted? Who made the decision and who was consulted? Such questions have acquired an air of urgency in the capital as the PML-Q has been very vocal in saying that it was satisfied by the previous committee and the decisions agreed upon.

Read: No headway in talks between PTI, PML-Q

Now the whole scene is once again a mess. The prime minister, some insiders say, is too easily swayed by the people close to him. As a result his decisions are kneejerk, impetuous and often ill-considered. The situation with the allies is a case in point. PTI vs PTI is taking a toll everywhere.

Till a few months ago, most people in PTI were in denial. All was well, they said, and it was the media that was painting a negative picture. But January has forced many within the party to come out of this denial.

Senior people now tell me there is a genuine concern that the government has entered an existential crisis.

Most people I have spoken to admit to taking rumours seriously that they may not survive a few months if the slide continues. These fears may be premature, but they do point towards a serious situation that is a by-product of atrocious governance, temperamental leadership, severe infighting, petty leg pulling, poor communication and increasing frustration in quarters that matter.

Who needs the opposition when PTI has itself to fight with?

Published in Dawn, February 6th, 2020