AS the world struggles to come to grips with the global coronavirus pandemic, the grim anniversary of a man-made disaster has just passed. The Syrian war has now entered its 10th year, and there are few signs that hostilities in the Arab country are winding down, with the belligerents ready to make peace. Far from it, there appear to be new and more dangerous fronts opening that could plunge the wider region into a conflagration unless wiser counsel prevails. What started in 2011 as a popular uprising against Bashar al-Assad’s iron-fisted rule has in fact morphed into a wider geopolitical battle, with rival ideological blocs using Syria as a chessboard. Moreover, ferocious militant outfits, such as the self-styled Islamic State group and Al Nusra, have used the chaos to establish themselves. In fact, only a few years ago, it appeared as if IS and other jihadi groups were on the ascendant, until they were beaten back by the Syrian government with the help of its foreign allies, as well as a separate US-led coalition.

Today, while Mr Assad’s regime has the upper hand against his opponents — thanks primarily to military support from his Russian and Iranian allies, as well as Hezbollah — a new conflict brews as Turkey has entered northern Syria to bolster rebel factions it supports. Only last month, Damascus’s troops clashed with Ankara’s forces in and around the northern Syrian province of Idlib, with casualties on both sides. Russia has helped broker a ceasefire, but the truce remains tenuous. Up till, now the pro-Iranian Syrian government was fighting local proxies supported by its rivals in the American/Gulf Arab camp, as well as militants. But today, a confrontation between two sovereign states — Syria and Turkey — is very probable. Suffice it to say, such a development will only spell more misery for the Syrian people. According to one count 384,000 have died since hostilities began, while the UN says half the Syrian population has fled their homes. To prevent this catastrophe from getting any worse, it is essential to defuse the crisis that is brewing between Damascus and Ankara. Once a permanent ceasefire is in place, the numerous multilateral processes — Astana, Sochi — must be reactivated in order to bring Mr Assad and his opponents to the table to hammer out a deal acceptable to the Syrian people. There is grave mistrust on both sides, but the only alternative to reconciliation and peace is further bloodshed.

Published in Dawn, March 17th, 2020