EVERY time Prime Minister Imran Khan has addressed the public about the coronavirus pandemic, he has given assurances that he doesn’t want a strict lockdown for a long period of time.

According to a new poll of leading economists from the University of Chicago’s Booth School, there is little support among experts for the idea that officials must choose between saving lives through continued social distancing and saving the economy by ending the practice.

The overwhelming majority of the economists surveyed have warned that “abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage” than keeping the lockdowns in place and riding things out.

Of course, the Chicago survey is not gospel. However, it is worth uremembering that there is no evidence of a disjuncture in view between what the public health experts and what economic policy experts are thinking.

There is broad agreement among economists that there is no economic gain to be had by reopening businesses if this allows the virus to overwhelm the healthcare system capacity in the same way that we’ve seen in Wuhan and the West.

The real issue is whether we have an adequate handle on exactly where to draw the line between extreme social distancing and allowing business to continue as normal.

Syed Aman Sohail
Karachi

Published in Dawn, April 8th, 2020