THE future depends on the Covid-19 trajectory, but the good news is that Pakistan will not run out of food anytime soon. Thanks to the nature and the farming community, Pakistan is food secure for now.

Experts believe that if the health crisis exacerbates, the risk to food security can only be mitigated by radical plans to divert the requisite resources to support the rural economy.

Currently, the country has sufficient stocks of wheat, rice, sugar, pulses, edible oil, onions, tomatoes, potatoes and greens besides cattle stocks. The government has banned the export of wheat and wheat products, pulses and onions for a year. This will also serve to ensure the price stability in Ramazan when food demand spikes.

According to dependable sources in the Ministry of Food Security and Research, the wheat harvest is good and should be sufficient for a year. Stocks of imported cooking oil can last for seven months. Stocks of pulses will give a cover of over a month. Supplies of fruits and vegetables are normal with no sign of stress so far.

Some progressive farmers from Sindh and Punjab noted a dip in demand for fruits and vegetables in cities. The lockdown, they said over the phone, has affected perishable horticulture products the most. They called for enhanced trading through smartphones and a settlement through e-payments so that only truckers would need to travel. “The government needs to guarantee the availability of agricultural inputs at affordable rates to skirt disruptions in food supplies,” a Sindh farmer said.

‘The government must ensure the availability of agricultural inputs at affordable rates to skirt disruptions in food supplies’

Agriculture experts are worried about mid-sized farmers who are said to be bearing the brunt of the lockdown. They are facing difficulties in acquiring farm inputs and selling their produce. Experts urged policymakers to ensure the well-being of the farming community for steady grains and greens supplies. “Much will depend on access to quality seeds and affordable fertiliser and pesticides,” a retired agriculturist noted.

With the textile industry in trouble, demand prospects for cotton are not bright. Besides, a greater interest from the government in food crops can nudge farmers in the cotton belt to switch to food crops in the Kharif season for which sowing has started and will continue till June. Rice, sugar cane, cotton, maize, moong, mash, bajra and jowar are key Kharif crops.

In the absence of the geographical mapping of food stocks, the extent of coordination among the provinces is important. When contacted, the Ministry of Inter-Provincial Coordination appeared to be dormant. Its minister, Dr Fahmida Mirza, attributed the state of inactivity to the reluctance of the provinces. She said the provinces are opting for independent positioning instead of complementing the federal policies in the current difficult phase.

“A holistic approach is required for food security. The provinces should bring to table all the relevant data and draft proposals to ensure the sufficient stocks of essentials to feed the population of the entire country. Collectively, they can streamline mechanisms and pen policy advice for the federal government.

“Unfortunately, the provinces have pushed their independence post-18th Amendment a bit too far and the value of consultation is lost on them,” she told Dawn.

The reports about mob attacks on grain depots in some parts of the country were brushed aside as isolated incidents by government functionaries in Islamabad. “The issue, as far as we know, was that of affordability. The high anxiety level amongst people who lost livelihoods to the lockdown caused commotions at some places,” said a close watcher of the commodity market in Punjab.

Fakhar Imam, who assumed the charge of federal food minister in place of Khusro Bakhtiar in a cabinet reshuffle early this month, was too busy to make time to share his views. But the hierarchy of his ministry was hopeful that Pakistan would ride out the challenge of feeding its population despite economic distress.

Dr Javed Humayun, spokesperson for the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, told Dawn that the ministry is closely tracking, monitoring and reporting the updates on food supplies to the command and control operation centre on a daily basis.

“It is our primary mandate to keep an eye on all the four components of food security — availability of stocks, accessibility through transportation from farm gates to the market, utilisation based on ensuring minimum quality standards and stability in the market based on affordable prices. We are at it to the best of our capacity beating all odds.”

“Based on the assumption of 115-kilogram requirement of wheat per person annually, the average yearly requirement is about 27m tonnes, about the same as the country’s production. To provide a buffer in emergencies/shocks and check market manipulation, the federal and provincial governments maintain their own buffer stocks of the staple grain besides the Pakistan Agriculture Storage and Services Corporation Ltd (Passco) operations.

As the harvesting of wheat started last month, the Economic Coordination Committee decided to acquire 8.25m tonnes of wheat collectively. Punjab has been asked to buy 4.5m, Sindh 1.4m, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 0.45m, Balochistan 0.1m and Passco 1.8m tonnes,” he told Dawn by phone from Islamabad.

“With the threat of Covid-19 spreading to rural Pakistan still lingering, the government can’t afford to be complacent,” said a member of the economic team.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, April 20th, 2020