KARACHI: Prominent health experts and representatives of major associations of physicians and surgeons on Wednesday appealed to the federal and provincial governments to enforce for several more weeks strict measures aimed at curbing the spread of Covid-19, warning that in case this was not done immediately the total number of Pakistanis testing positive for the potentially fatal coronavirus could top 70,000 by May 15.

They said that up to 10 per cent of all Covid-19 patients could require ventilators, but unfortunately the country’s healthcare system didn’t have the equipment in such high numbers.

Addressing a press conference at the Karachi Press Club, the eminent physicians and surgeons observed that easing lockdown measures now “would prove disastrous” for the country.

“If we don’t strictly enforce lockdown measures, the projected number of coronavirus cases may go up to 70,000 by May 15,” said Dr Saad Khalid Niaz, a well-known gastroenterologist.

Appeal to the governments to close down all places where people may congregate

“Of those patients, roughly 7,000 people would require life support, but our country cannot cater to the needs of even half of these patients. Our health system cannot absorb the pressures that we are seeing in Europe and the United States,” he said.

The experts called for a ban on all types of gatherings and congregations, including those at shopping malls and mosques, saying people should not gather at any place over the next one to two months so that transmission of the virus could be avoided as much as possible.

They also urged the ulema and the people alike to offer prayers at homes.

Head of the Indus Hospital, Karachi, Prof Abdul Bari Khan, Prof Misbahul Aziz, Prof Sohail Akhter, Prof Atif Hafeez Siddiqui and Prof Muhammad Azeemuddin of the Pakistan Islamic Medical Association, Dr Qaiser Sajjad of the Pakistan Medical Association, Dr Imran Hamid and Dr Niaz told the press conference that an “exponential growth” in the number of virus cases had been witnessed in the last five days after lockdown measures had been eased in Sindh.

The doctors called for closure of shopping malls, supermarkets and all other places where people could gather, saying it was time for the authorities to strictly enforce lockdown measures so that burden on the country’s fragile healthcare system could be lessened.

“Week-wise data suggests an exponential increase in the number of Covid-19 patients,” said Prof Siddiqui. “We have seen a rapid increase in the numbers in just five days (6,772 on April 16 to 9,464 on April 21) — an increase of 2,692 patients. This is very alarming and we fear the situation is getting out of control of the doctors and the governments in the country.”

Claiming that 162 healthcare providers had been infected with coronavirus in Sindh alone, Dr Niaz said Covid-19 was a medical problem and only physicians and surgeons knew how best to tackle it. “Myths have made matters worse... There is no truth in the myths that we are the chosen ones and it will not harm us. If we ignore the warnings now, there will be no space for patients in hospitals and they will be lying in hospital corridors,” he added.

Prof Abdul Bari Khan said 80 per cent of the beds in isolation wards/centres and intensive care units of some hospitals, where Covid-19 patients are being treated, had already been occupied. He disclosed that there was simply no space available at the Indus, Ojha and Aga Khan hospitals for Covid-19 patients now.

Published in Dawn, April 23rd, 2020