A DISRUPTION of the magnitude of Covid-19 is a new experience. Death and destruction will force change. What this change is going to be like will depend on, among multiple factors, the lessons learned.

The crisis has exposed the limitations of the notion of power based on military might. It has also busted the myth of the free market and its capacity to take care of problems on its own strength. Despite the vertical drop in travelling, the common global threat has drawn the world closer spiritually. Traffic on social media has jumped as denizens are sharing their anxieties and grieving collectively for the loss of life and livelihood. Covid-19 has expedited the digitisation trend.

Today, the spotlight is back on the basics: freedom from want and getting prepared to deal with unknown threats. In a market-based globalised world, the value of a credible government has become too obvious for anyone to challenge. The pandemic has highlighted the value of global collaboration.

The glamourised nuclear capability, piles of costly arms and powerful military establishments did not stop the pandemic from destroying lives and economies. On the other hand, all the wealth stacked by the elite failed to buy them immunity from Covid-19. The collective experience of the past two months has demonstrated that the conventional concepts of power are meaningless in dealing with new forms of threats. Will this dilute the obsession with the security doctrine and disrupt the wild chase of the privileged to amass wealth by hook or crook?

For every rupee doled out to the people at the bottom of the social pyramid, many times more is set aside for the greedy lot at the top’

Sartaj Aziz, PML-N leader and former finance minister responded: “this pandemic is not likely to dilute our obsession with security, nor unfortunately, the chase for wealth and assets.”

Dr Nadeem Javed, the former chief economist, Planning Commission, had a different take. “The post-pandemic era will witness a dramatic transformation of the economic and social order. The rise of the virtual economy will vastly change structures, consumer behaviour and institutional configurations across the globe.

“Regarding the security paradigm, I would say the hollowness of the existing doctrine has been exposed. It is, therefore, important to divert military budget towards citizens’ education, health and wellbeing. Sadly, I am sceptical if any state is ready to move in the direction unilaterally, particularly in a country located in a hostile neighbourhood,” he said referring to Pakistan. He wished for global binding peace pacts to stop the expensive arms race.

The response from PPP leader and former finance minister Naveed Qamar was brief and pointed. He wrote back, “Old habits die hard.”

Commenting on the issue, economist Dr Ali Cheema said: “the Covid-19 crisis is a wake-up call. Free-market capitalism that has systematically been under-investing in public health and education has failed to ensure the security of life and well-being of citizens. Markets are a poor mechanism to achieve this. The real challenge is to create accountable systems and capacities that make the public sector deliver better.”

The rest from the pool of economists and politicians approached found the issue too sensitive to comment casually about. Some shared guarded opinion in confidence. They believe there is a vague realisation in the official circles that social investment can no longer be ignored. There is said to be a harder push for quick, efficient and transparent disbursal of direct cash sustenance awards to the poor.

Yes, allocations for targeted social relief may not be easy to suppress now, but it should be taken for what it is. The rich-poor balance is maintained if you look carefully at the bailout package. For every rupee doled out to the people at the bottom of the social pyramid, many times more is set aside for the greedy lot at the top.

According to the published details of the Rs1.25 trillion stimulus committed by the PTI government, Rs150 billion is dedicated for Ehsaas emergency cash relief against Rs400bn for the private sector (Rs200bn to cover the wage bill of the corporate sector, Rs100bn to settle refund claims of exporters and Rs100bn for the construction sector). The actual base of beneficiaries in the private sector would be narrower because of the overlapping of business interests of a few families at the top. In all, there are about 96,000 registered firms in Pakistan and 70 million people languishing below the poverty line.

While the government struggles to contain the human cost of this pandemic, acquire/divert funds to sustain the poor and keep businesses from crashing to the ground under lockdowns, the future of the country in the end will depend on the lessons learned from the current experience. A more inclusive, equitable and sustainable economic model post–Covid-19 is hard to imagine as long the conservative positions are held and the conformist government priorities do not change.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, May 4th , 2020