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BASED on the remarks of two key officials at the helm of pandemic control in the country, it appears that the federal government is pursuing an unannounced policy of ‘herd immunity’.
The first indication of this came from SAPM Dr Zafar Mirza, who in an interview with DawnNews earlier this week conceded that “it will be better for the future if coronavirus spreads at a certain level so people can become immune”.
Also read: Sweden opted for ‘herd immunity’ against a total lockdown. Is it paying the price?
The second, albeit less categorical, message came from federal minister and NCOC chair Asad Umar during a talk show. Although he said it is not a policy decision, he justified it by saying that the logical conclusion of the pandemic is either a vaccine or a situation where 70pc of the population contracts the virus and achieves herd immunity. That these remarks have come as the government prepares to ease lockdown restrictions — despite the spike in death and infection curves — is extremely troubling.
In theoretical terms, herd immunity is a concept based on the body’s immune resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population. It is achieved when a significantly high proportion of individuals are vaccinated against it and therefore develop immunity. When enough people are vaccinated, a virus is unable to spread through the population.
However, the reality is that there is no vaccine for the coronavirus as yet. In the absence of a vaccine, immunity to the virus can likely only be achieved if an individual contracts it and survives, developing antibodies in his or her system.
If, by Mr Umar’s calculation, three-fourths of the population contracts Covid-19, the results in Pakistan would be catastrophic. At present, 2.2pc of those testing positive in the country die. Even if that grim percentage is halved, if 140m people contract Covid-19, we would be looking at at least 1.4m deaths. It would require the immuno-compromised to be sacrificed for the sake of the economy — a notion which is unacceptable and inhumane.
Despite what Mr Umar appears to be suggesting, the herd immunity approach is being pursued by very few countries. The UK’s initial decision was to take this approach, but the lack of restrictions and the rapid spike in cases and deaths forced a rethink. Currently, it is only being pursued by Sweden, which is drawing flak from scientists across the world.
The government needs to say clearly that it is not pursuing the policy of herd immunity as it eases the lockdown.
Published in Dawn, May 10th, 2020
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On DawnNews
Comments (77) Closed
May 10, 2020 07:29am
In all previous episodes of pandemic / epidemics vaccines had been invented / useful when herd immunity had already developed in the communities . Whether a vaccine would be effective or useful before herd immunity for Covid 19 has developed in the communities is a big question mark ?. In my opinion until communities achieve some level of herd immunity for Covid19, only invention of vaccine is unlikely to serve the purpose.
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May 10, 2020 09:33am
Herd immunity is a dangerous approach for a virus that's still mutating and not vaccinated, for people who rarely have access to a decent health care, for a country which is struggling economically and has dense population. It may probably work in countries like Sweden which is experimenting this but they also have surge in numbers. Best thing to do is continue lock down and take care of supplies of essential items
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May 10, 2020 09:33am
IK's solution to curb aging, poverty, unemployment and so on to strengthen country's economic base. Smart policies by smart leader. Welcome to Naya Pakistan, reloaded.
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May 10, 2020 09:50am
Going by the initial actions of IK I have felt that he promoted this idea. But could not say it.
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May 10, 2020 10:01am
What else a poor country can do ?
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May 10, 2020 10:06am
I think the Federal government was pursuing a policy to somewhat contain the virus so it does not overwhelm our senses as well as the medical setup to avoid the blame. When it turned out that virus is behaving a bit mildly in term of deaths which appeared acceptable to public particularly the poorer segments it has gone into herd immunity mentality. Which appears to be right approach given our economic and social compulsions. The Sindh government and the vocal segments of society are still stuck in the containment approach to the pandemic. And hence the lively debate going on in the country.
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May 10, 2020 10:06am
For poor countries trying herd immunity is a forced option.
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May 10, 2020 10:16am
I believe most of the country using herd immunities as the best tool, reason is simple, none of the country on the globe has infrastructure to sustain covid cases, best option is to let people get immune to the virus and who so ever can't, let them perish, if not covid, people will die of hunger. USA has 80k deaths other countries reporting such big numbers. Governments are helpless.
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May 10, 2020 10:34am
I wonder sir, when out of 100 cases 80 don't even show any symptoms of the disease, 15 show symptoms but get recovered within 2 to 3 weeks without feeling any need for hospitalization while only 4 to 5 get seriously ill and overall death rate is just 3 to 4 percent then in view of such facts & figures why is the world taking such an infectious disease so serious.
We ought to establish a pragmatic approach between the loss of lives and the loss of livelihood of the poor labourers.
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May 10, 2020 10:35am
Herd immunity doesn't work with Covid 19. For true herd immunity, you need more than 95% of Population to be affected. Covid 19 is not infectious enough, it is far less infectious than Smallpox or TB
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May 10, 2020 10:35am
Herd immunity or testing cornovirous symtoms. Do it which is best. Doctors/ nurses paramedics doing their best. Give them protective equipment.
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May 10, 2020 10:38am
Basically, then you don't give a damn about the health workers. They are fighting the disease and caring for the sick and risking their lives for nothing.
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May 10, 2020 10:39am
I think we have to consider different things before drawing a conclusion, considering economical condition of Pakistan a complete lock down is not an option, the only option we have is to delay the spread of covid. I think we have to consider the whole picture i.e economic, health care,social etc
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May 10, 2020 10:43am
Whether herd immunity is a policy or not, that is the only outcome for Pakistan. Those who are saying that lockdown should be maintained have probably never ventured out of Islamabad or Lahore. There was never any lockdown before and there is none now for 90% of Pakistan. The infection is spreading at its own pace depending on population demographics, vitamin D levels and immunity. Since 70% of Pakistan's population is under 40, and mortality rate for this segment is zero so the expected deaths would be much less than the 1.3 million cited above. We also have to consider how many more millions will die if the so called lock down is extended indefinitely.
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May 10, 2020 10:46am
Herd immunity is the only way to go. Lockdown will not stop the virus and yes the economical downsides are catastrophic, and the virus will still achieve herd immunity over a longer period of time. Many countries are going in that direction subtly and unwillingly eg UK and US
If the government is going for this, I strongly support them
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May 10, 2020 10:46am
Firstly, we have to recognize that it is a complex problem and there is no solution which is without downsides. To put it simply, for developing countries, GDP per Capita has a strong correlation to Expected Lifespan at Birth. So economic stagnation would also kill people; the link is less direct and therefore does not appeal to our natural instincts.
So the optimization problem would be to maximize the welfare of the population keeping a balance of economic requirements, and immediate control of virus spread.
Either way, our country has been poorly run for decades and seems it will continue to be so. As someone with pre-existing conditions, I wonder how much better off people like myself would be if this country was better administered.
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May 10, 2020 11:14am
Poor nations can only afford herd immunity.
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May 10, 2020 11:18am
First Virus behaviour is not Predictable, (Once exposed had long term immunity). Second with the population of 220 Million if we apply current fatality rates we are going to face the loss of life of 3.38 Million of pakistani Population (Are we ready for it)
220X70%= 154 Million (Infection), 154X2.2%=3.38 Million Deaths (Consider our health service remain in place)
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May 10, 2020 11:21am
The high population density of Pakistan does not allow it to adopt herd immunity. Sweden has less population density and their public is far more organized so they can adopt it easily
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May 10, 2020 11:21am
Like it or not this is what the world except China is coming down to.
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May 10, 2020 11:30am
I wish they had a clear policy, even a herd immunity policy as long as it is made clear to the people of Pakistan. There is NO policy to deal with the pandemic.
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May 10, 2020 11:43am
This is based on fallacious idea that our death rate is the same as those on the west or that our testing rate is large enough to be representative of all those who have had this in Pakistan - good bet that neither are true. Deaths wont be in the millions for her immunity then.
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May 10, 2020 12:07pm
It's not policy but a grim reminder that Pakistan is a somewhat poor country with a humongous population. With such dense population centers in Pakistan and ingrained indiscipline, herd immunity is inevitable. Looking closer at the situation in Pakistan, it seems as if the traders, the clergy, and most of the people have opted for herd immunity anyway. A lock down will only lead to unrest and political turmoil and further disruption of the economy and social systems which can lead to even more deaths.
On the brighter side, the virus is believed to have spread much earlier and much wider than stated earlier, with at least 4 times as many infections than reported. Countries that have tested widely have seen their official death rates plummet because of newly reported mild cases. Overall death rate is likely very low but the infection rate is an issue meaning we might not be able to save those that can be saved.
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May 10, 2020 12:24pm
So in the absence of a vaccine what is the option other than herd immunity? Can we afford a strict lockdown for a year....not even the richest of the countries can afford.
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May 10, 2020 12:53pm
Presently the figures of infected people are quoted on the basis of tests performed which is not the true picture of total infections. However it is evident that out of the tests performed about 10-20% or even more show infected. The number of deaths are from the total infected, which are far more than reported out of the tests performed. The predicted second wave of Covid-19 could be much more lethal as it happened in 1918-20 epidemic.
In any case immunity is the answer prior to the second wave.
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May 10, 2020 01:23pm
The high population density of Pakistan makes it difficult to implement herd immunity. Especially in the provinces like Punjab and Sindh. In contrast, Sweden density population is much hence it is easier to implement such practices there. The general public of Sweden is disciplined, unlike the South Asian countries.
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May 10, 2020 01:25pm
Ultimately, herd immunity is the only choice. Lockdown only slows the spread to countries can prepare themselves.
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May 10, 2020 01:38pm
@Syed Zubair Hasany, you are right. Discipline is a national trait of sweedes. Here the whole of South Asia is withoutout any mental discipline. Even Chinese people are more disciplined in social etiquettes than South Asian people.
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May 10, 2020 01:44pm
If there’s a plan to herd community after 70% of population is infected, Pakistan can open its own company. Also with 1.4 million deaths at the 2-2.2% fatality rate, Pakistan can demand loan waivers and new aid worth 10s or billions of dollars. No donor can ignore the death of a million innocent people. So it’s win-win for Pakistan.
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May 10, 2020 01:47pm
The mortality rate is 0.1%
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May 10, 2020 01:52pm
@Asad, Herd immunity strategy has led to death of about 300 per million in Sweden while Pakistan has 3 per million with lock down. If we get even 100 per million in Pakistan, there will be 22 thousand deaths in Pakistan with herd immunity tech.
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May 10, 2020 02:10pm
Death rate is not 2.2%, it’s more likely 0.5% as there are many cases with no symptoms or mild symptoms that are never recorded.
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May 10, 2020 02:12pm
They started with herd immobility but then realized that it was a case of herd impossibility so they've had to follow the herd and loosen restrictions.
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May 10, 2020 02:28pm
Who is answerable if people start dying on the streets?
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May 10, 2020 02:33pm
@Chríss Dănn, Chinese are ruled by Iron hand and no democracy other wise they are like our Brother's.
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May 10, 2020 02:34pm
Heard Immunity is best choice as we have a large population and better immune system then Europe and US.
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May 10, 2020 03:04pm
The traders, clerics, and all the people on the streets have already opted for herd immunity.
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May 10, 2020 03:08pm
Herd immunity only makes sense if there was a vaccine for this scourge. Countries that enforced lockdowns did better than the ones that did not. The record indicates that.
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May 10, 2020 03:26pm
So what is humble opinion should we do? Shut down the whole country till when? It will take one year for vaccine. Which country in the world has continued lock down. Even the mighty USA has to open due to fear of domestic violence, suicide, substance abuse, depression relating various diseases. Rather than just print long stuff for sake of it, come up with a solution. As we all know smart lock down is the only one.
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May 10, 2020 03:34pm
@Chríss Dănn, You are right that discipline is the key to handling pandemic. However your South Asia being undisciplined is partially right. In India, even small villages, discipline is maintained by education and some enforcement in India. I could not believe that my relatives narrate a disciplined lockout all over the town. There is video going viral that in one village, two smoking addicted people are fighting for a thrown away end of a bidi (cigarette) on ground and an enforcer comes with a danda beating both of them.
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May 10, 2020 04:18pm
@Patel D, how to believe you?
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May 10, 2020 04:34pm
No other option available!! Even in a country like UAE, it’s getting difficult to control it where the population is much lesser then pakistan and they have much more resources then us. Businesses have started opening here. The only thing requires is the discipline and follow sops
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May 10, 2020 05:48pm
Herd immunity is the way to go... Everyone is going to get this virus at one time or another... People who have underlying issues will struggle to survive where as majority should be able to pass through without even knowing they had been infected by the virus...
All these countries that are going for hard lockdown, the question is what will happen afterwards?
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May 10, 2020 06:20pm
Government is sending confusing messages since day one.... as a result lockdown became ineffective.... It must clearly announce its course of action and must listen to experts
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May 10, 2020 06:57pm
Proponents of the lockdown don’t want to tell us who will feed the people while they are locked up in their homes for months
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May 10, 2020 07:02pm
The calculation is all wrong. In testing we see 14-16% cases are positive. Assuming minimum 10% cases positive, we have 2corore people infected out of 21corore population. This means our fatalities are 636/20000000= 0.003% not 2%.
So if 70% of population get infected, we will have 21corore*0.7*0.00003= 4,400 dead.
Compare this with 4,000 trafic deaths per month.
Also note that, many of these will be elderly, who have a high chance of dying this year anyways.
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May 10, 2020 07:04pm
A policy of herd immunity has its advantages. For one, fundamental rights of free movement are not trampled upon and government overreach is avoided.
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May 10, 2020 07:17pm
Does government even know anything about herd immunity? After collasal failure of lockdown, government has no option other than to open businesses....entire world will be forced to lift lockdown sooner or later.....
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May 10, 2020 07:53pm
On top of that, the whole concept of herd immunity relies on the assumption that infection by coronavirus confers immunity from it. This something we simply do not know to be true, yet. So t is even more dangerous to go down this path without confirming these facts.
Other possibilities after coronavirus infection besides full immunity: no immunity, immunity that wanes off with time, immunity that protects against future severe infections only, immunity that prevents symptomatic infection but does not prevent individual from transmitting to others. All have been documented for other types of infections.
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May 10, 2020 07:56pm
@Asad, I agree that ultimately herd immunity is the only solution. I do not approve the approach of trying to get there quickly. Number of causalities may not look big against population but if so many people get sick at once, panic syncs in and social unrest may get to a point where nations fall. My two cents
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May 10, 2020 07:57pm
I don't think this choice was difficult for the government as there was possibly no option , given the financial situation of Pakistan.
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May 10, 2020 08:07pm
Instead the think tanks should look at Australia, Norway, Thailand, Taiwan, Austria, China, New Zealand, South Korea, Iceland, Vietnam and the other nations that are beating Covid-19 by intelligent, timely decisions. Yes, as you pointed out both U.K., Sweden and USA are prime examples of being late.
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May 10, 2020 08:43pm
Pak government is paralyzed. With infection rate of 3, you will need 75% of the population to have recovered from COVID-19. Millions will die for nation reaches that number.
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May 10, 2020 08:43pm
We can fight as we fish, but one day we have to accept the fact that till we have vaccine, Herd Immunity maybe an answer. We all need to understand that we just cannot shut down in our homes till vaccines are developed. It is impossible, unless we all are robot and don't have biological needs..
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May 10, 2020 08:59pm
@Gaz, likewise there are many deaths which are not attributed to corona and may downplay the true death rate . World bodies now believe the total number of deaths due to corona is 1.7 times what was reported . Bottom line statistics matter until you are some one near you is infected and glare at the situation from a human perspective.
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May 10, 2020 09:11pm
@Patel D, India is perfect.
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May 10, 2020 09:40pm
Herd immunity is the only option.
Lockdowns will not stop the virus, they will slow the spread so the virus will take longer to spread but it still will, and economic loss will go in vain.
This is the time to believe in science and listen to epidemiologists!
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May 10, 2020 10:18pm
The government itself doesn't knows what strategy it is following.
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May 10, 2020 11:08pm
in Pakistan the results of adopting herd immunity will be devastating, reason being; our poor health infrastructure....it will not be able to cater the burden of increased corona cases....
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May 10, 2020 11:10pm
@BK, Sweden is depending on herd immunity, and it worked. But it worked only in circumstances where the 99% herd is strong enough to safe themselves, so the 1% got strength & encouragement to self boost their immunity. But in places where 80% are weak, malnourished, herd immunity will not work.
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May 10, 2020 11:12pm
@@Pakistan, Heard or herd, please differentiate first.
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May 10, 2020 11:36pm
@@Pakistan, Is pakistan have democracy?
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May 10, 2020 11:50pm
Govt can give it any name because it’s no longer in govts control.
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May 11, 2020 12:49am
We need to fix people stupidity before fixing virus issues. Countries like South Korea, New Zealand, Germany have proved that with corporation of citizens, it is possible to beat the virus... but unfortunately most people dont even believe on existence of such virus.
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May 11, 2020 12:59am
It is not just Pakistan, many countries including gulf are moving towards it despite the huge resources. Also here the approach is unannounced.
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May 11, 2020 07:47am
@BK, you nailed it as in many south Asian politicians are failed to control population explosion, curreption , devolpe the infrastructure of health, good employment, etc etc. And now this crona virus came then this rotten system could not cop with this situation and now ruler magic remdy to this problem is hard immunty or in other words if crona happened to some one then he alone fight without any treatment .
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May 11, 2020 07:49am
@Truthsayer, out of 1.4 million close to 1million will be over 65 and had seen their golden years. So it's population control mechanism. Culling of less useful. On a different thought, most of the ruling elites are 65+ and most useless
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May 11, 2020 08:22am
@@Pakistan, Pakistani in England are having same "immune system " and they are worst affected community.
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May 11, 2020 12:31pm
Unfortunately In Pakistan there are is no other solution. Locking down of people living in kuchi Abadis and slums is counter productive. Daily wagers cannot survive economically with lock downs and Elites don’t care for government orders while huge middle class still haven’t grasp the concept of social distancing. So you like it or not this is going to happen anyways.
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May 11, 2020 03:21pm
Is India going towards Herd Immunity too? If not, then why not?
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May 11, 2020 03:35pm
An option to go for a Herd Immunity has one clear advantage, it may contain the Pakistan's exploding population?
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May 11, 2020 07:07pm
Some countries are more successful than others in controlling the virus. Germany is a winner and UK is a loser. Germans focused on testing and controlling the virus while UK initially went for herd immunity and the virus got out of control. China did not adopt for herd immunity as well. US did not take the virus seriously and will pay a heavy price. There is no special addition of virus in Pakistan. It's the same corona virus infecting people and it would be better to follow countries that are successful rather than one's that are failures.
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May 11, 2020 07:57pm
The PTI government's policy towards handling the Pandemic has been marked by gross incompetence, pandering to the religious right, embracing the morally defunct approach of achieving herd immunity and shrugging off the millions of death that will invariably occur, as the right wing president of Brazil has so blatantly pursued and only followed by Sweden in the west , a country with small and relatively healthy population.
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May 11, 2020 09:21pm
Herd immunity is fine. Along with that also put an end to all kind of pollution- industrial, commercial, agricultural, as well. Close down all factory farms, which are the sole reason for viruses.
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May 11, 2020 09:36pm
My judgement is PM Imran Khan has taken the right decision. How long you can keep the country closed and make the daily workers without any livelihood? It’s inhuman, better let the people gather, some will get infected but a major part of people will get the herd community. There is no end in sight so you have to take a bold decision. I think Imran Khan did the correct thing.
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May 11, 2020 11:03pm
The fact is that there is little by way of alternative. There is no cure and no vaccine. So what can any government do under these circumstances? The time to act is the very early stages by testing and tracing contacts of those who test positive and then isolating them, which can contain the virus. This can only work when numbers are small. Everyone is past that stage now.
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May 21, 2020 08:15am
The calculation is all wrong. In testing we see 14-16% cases are positive. Assuming minimum 10% cases positive, we have 2corore people infected out of 21corore population. This means our fatalities are 636/20000000= 0.003% not 2%.
So if 70% of population get infected, we will have 21corore*0.7*0.00003= 4,400 dead.
Compare this with 4,000 trafic deaths per month.
Also note that, many of these will be elderly, who have a high chance of dying this year anyways.
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