Maulana Fazlur Rehman, known as MFR in some relevant quarters, is in his elements. On Wednesday evening he had a chatty presser peppered with ready smiles and quips. He was off to an important meeting.

The meeting was in Jati Umra. Maryam Nawaz Sharif, known as MNS in some relevant quarters, was the host. She too is in her elements ever since her father has broken his silence and unified the party under one narrative.

The father, known as NS in some relevant quarters, is most definitely in his elements. He is primed to take on Prime Minister Imran Khan in a brutal fight that was long time in the coming.

Together these three — MFR, MNS and NS — form what has emerged as the other troika.

Inside the Red Zone there is concern that the troika could spell trouble in the weeks ahead. The PTI government may be riddled with its own contradictions but over the last two years, many people find comfort in the fact that they have found their neatly compartmentalised roles. For instance, those tasked to make noise on the media may be close to their boss but not always privy to the chamber where deep political calculations are done; just as the political minds within these chambers are not often privy to the dictates of media glare. The other troika is now a subject of such calculations. Similar calculations have led to the distribution of titles and designations in the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), the opposition alliance that aims to overthrow the PTI regime ‘within months’. In this exercise, parties, provinces and personalities were balanced against the respective political strengths that each was capable of contributing while ensuring the big three — PML-N, PPP and JUI-F — got the main seats on the high table.

These office-bearers have plenty on their plate. The first rally that kicks off PDM’s campaign against the government is scheduled for October 16 in Gujranwala. This is hardcore PML-N territory. Gujranwala district has six National Assembly seats. All are with PML-N. The party has significant presence in nearby districts of Sialkot, Narowal, Mandi Bahauddin and Hafizabad. PDM will therefore throw in everything it has to make the Gujranwala jalsa successful and impactful. In this respect, the office-bearers have to operationalise the logistics of mobilisation, organisation and harmonisation of the event.

Party heads like Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari will be key stakeholders in keeping the alliance together along with the leaders of smaller parties, but when it comes to wielding influence on the strategic direction of PDM, it is the troika that holds the cards.

There is a reason. And it could also backfire.

Bilawal was instrumental in bringing the opposition parties together. He was the most vocal critic of the PTI government while NS and MNS had retreated into their zone of silence. MFR too sagged under the weight of his unsuccessful dharna and suffered from the unavailability of the parliamentary platform. Then the multiparty conference (MPC) happened, and MNS speech happened, and the opposition’s narrative veered into harsh terrain. Today the reality of PDM is subtly but surely different from the day it was forged in that hotel room in Islamabad.

The reality: NS commands the narrative, MNS commands the operations of the party that commands the narrative, and MFR commands the people who will operationalise the narrative.

The challenge: How do you keep the alliance not just intact but cohesive and effective if the PPP — as one of the major partners — is driving neither the narrative nor the operationalisation of the narrative where it really matters — in Punjab?

The government is homing in on such a weakness. What can it do? Insiders in the Red Zone say they are weighing an array of options. The FIR on sedition against NS and his team was a knee-jerk reaction by someone on the other side and betrayed a thought process that seems quasi-evolved. If the sedition charge was meant as a deterrence, or a warning shot, or an attempt to re-interpret the NS narrative, it has not worked. On the contrary, it has attracted scorn and derision for the government’s crudely infantile tactic. The government will need to do better if it wants to take on the PDM.

Here’s where the troika comes in.

Officials say the troika must be weakened if the PDM campaign has to be weakened. They believe the PPP can only go so far and not more. Bilawal may breathe fire but he is unlikely to cross a line beyond which all bets are off. The troika, however, could. Maybe. Possibly. All-or-nothing situations are never good options. Until they are.

Many opposition leaders hope that matters won’t reach a stage where the January long march will become necessary. According to the schedule, the timeline for the PDM to get results is from October 16 (Gujranwala jalsa) till December 13 (Lahore jalsa). Eight weeks to bring the Imran Khan government to its knees, or bring it to the negotiating table. If not — long march it is. This is when the red zone gets red hot.

At this stage, the troika’s political credibility will be at stake. It would be hard for it to back down. Strategists in government know it’s not the intent of the opponent that matters at this stage, but its capability. MFR has shown his capability to bring people in large numbers to the capital. This time he will have PDM with him. Who will stop these marchers from marching to the Red Zone? Police? FC? Rangers?

If negotiations have to happen when the marchers are camped at the capital, the government will have a distinct disadvantage. Officials are calculating the cost of negotiations versus the cost of using force. It is not an easy calculation. Which is why some within the government are arguing that it is better to weaken the troika before the campaign gathers momentum.

But weaken how? The complexity of the predicament is directly proportional to the perplexity of the situation. Buckle up.

Published in Dawn, October 8th, 2020