ISLAMABAD: The latest nowcasts released by UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) on Wednesday showed that the value of global merchandise trade is predicted to fall by 5.6 per cent in 2020 as compared with last year.

This would be the biggest fall in merchandise trade since 2009, when trade fell by 22pc. This is a significantly more optimistic nowcast than only a few weeks ago when Unctad nowcasts were estimating a fall of 9pc.

The nowcasts — data-led projections for the immediate future — were published as part of Unctad’s comprehensive annual ‘Handbook of Statistics for 2020’, which presents the statistical landscape for 2019 with nowcasts for 2020.

The predicted decline in services trade is much greater, with services likely to fall by 15.4pc in 2020 compared with 2019. This would be the biggest decline in services trade since 1990, when this series began. In 2009, following the global financial crisis, services trade fell by 9.5pc.

Unctad’s quarterly International Trade in Services Bulletin, which contains the latest detailed information, shows that this plunge has been driven by a considerable decline in travel, transport and tourism activity.

Published in Dawn, December 10th, 2020

Opinion

The price of chocolate

The price of chocolate

Little attention is paid to any long-term strategy which might prevent vulnerable children from working in homes where they are in danger.

Editorial

Cholistan project
Updated 18 Feb, 2025

Cholistan project

GPI goals align with Pakistan's broader economic aims but the manner in which the initiative was launched raises questions.
Right to know
18 Feb, 2025

Right to know

IT is an unfortunate paradox that while on paper Pakistan has some of the most impressive right to information laws,...
Dam dispute
18 Feb, 2025

Dam dispute

THE situation in Chilas needs attention and a fair-minded approach so that it can be resolved amicably. Diamer ...
Climate funding gap
Updated 17 Feb, 2025

Climate funding gap

Pakistan must boost its institutional capacity to develop bankable climate projects.
UN monitoring report
Updated 17 Feb, 2025

UN monitoring report

Pakistan must press Kabul diplomatically over its tolerance of TTP terrorism.
Tax policy reform
17 Feb, 2025

Tax policy reform

THE cabinet’s decision to create a Tax Policy Office at the finance ministry has raised hopes that tax policy is...