SEVERAL gas consumers are facing shortages and a drop in pressure in Punjab and KP in spite of major cuts in supply to the power and transport sectors as well as captive plants in the industry. The factors behind the current gas shortages are said to be an increased demand for gas for heating and cooking at home as temperatures fall, delay in the arrival of an LNG vessel, and higher gas retentions allowed to SSGCL for power generation by K-Electric. The line-pack of the SNGPL network, which feeds gas customers in the two provinces, is reported to be hovering between 4,100mmcfd and 4,300mmcfd because of reduced supply from the SSGCL system, which provides the fuel to consumers in Sindh and Balochistan. Approximately 4,300mmcfd is the minimum benchmark for safety reasons to maintain adequate gas pressure in the SNGPL pipeline system. Similarly, LNG supplies for the SNGPL network have further dropped to about 850mmcfd from 1,050mmcfd against the promised 1,200mmcfd owing to the diversion of around 160mmcfd to the SSGCL network. Overall, SNGPL is facing a shortfall of 350-400mmcfd as its supplies from both domestic system gas and LNG are reduced to about 1,700-1,750mmcfd against 2,100mmcfd of usual supplies these days, which explains the rising complaints of low pressure from tail-end consumers.

The present gas shortages have come despite the impression given by SAPM petroleum Nadeem Babar a few weeks back that the country would not face a major gas shortage this winter. Mr Babar claimed the government had made an all-out effort to maximise supplies in the gas network through increased RLNG imports. Nevertheless, he warned that consumers at the tail-end of the pipeline network could experience low pressure, which perhaps was a hint at impending shortages. Later developments, such as the government’s failure to procure LNG cargos for the first fortnight of the next month and higher prices of imports, spawned fears of a harsher January and gas rationing by distribution companies, besides underscoring the incompetence of the authorities responsible for the timely import of LNG to fill the supply gap. That those fears have proved correct underscore the lack of proper planning to avert the shortages that have become a part of winter life in the country for over a decade. With the domestic gas resource depleted largely and the supply gaps enlarging, many rightly wonder about the basis on which the claim of having balanced supply and demand, especially when the country has only limited LNG-import capacity, was made.

Gas accounts for more than half of Pakistan’s total energy consumption as it is used for a variety of purposes from cooking to manufacturing fertilisers to fuelling cars to producing electricity. Unless the government takes measures to enhance LNG’s import capacity through the private sector or we stumble upon a significantly large domestic resource, the coming winters will be harsher than ever.

Published in Dawn, December 22nd, 2020