Carved out of Multan district in 1976, the district of Vehari is unique in more ways than one. It was the second district (after Rahim Yar Khan) which revolted against cotton, despite being the biggest producer of the crop in the nineties. Till the 1990s, it was a common claim that Vehari alone produced 80 per cent of Sindh’s cotton production.

The district also shares the distinction with its neighbouring Pakpattan of being a native base of the world-acclaimed Neeli breed of buffalo, which was later crossbred with another breed called Ravi, a combination that enjoyed international success. These breeds enjoyed unparalleled commercial success in the world of diary till they started losing out to cattle that was continuously genetically improved.

The district has also given Pakistan another commercial success in the form of beetal (goat), which is now the choicest sacrificial animal and sold in millions each year. Unlike cotton and buffalo, it is maintaining its market share. At present, beetal cross-breeding is improving other equally successful varieties.

Feeling cheated, the proud host of such extensive agricultural lands and livestock, Vehari started jilting its first love — cotton — and found a new one in maize in the last decade. Ishaq Khaqwani, one of the biggest farmers in the district and now hibernating PTI stalwart, explains: “the cotton crop failed farmers in Vehari and across the country, forcing them to find alternatives — corn fit the frame.”

Cotton’s income rarely goes beyond Rs50,000 per acre whereas farmers earn Rs100,000-125,000 from a potato crop which also allows room for a maize crop that has double the profit of the white lint

This failure is more clearly reflected in the last five-year record of the Punjab Crop Reporting Service. In 2015-16, cotton covered 470,000 acres out of a total of 0.9 million acres of the district — more than 50pc of the area. In 2019-20, the acreage dropped to 318,000 acres — a dip of more than 32pc.

On the other hand, the rise of maize was even faster. In 2015-16, the area under maize was 141,000 acres, which has now (2019-20) jumped to 309,000 acres or an increase of 119pc. During the same period, the climb in yield surpassed acreage because of seed improvement and better yield. In 2015-16, total maize production of the district stood at 428,000 tonnes, which has risen to 1.1 million tonnes in 2019-20 — or a growth of 159 per cent in the same period.

Marketing failure added insult to cotton injury. The local farmers claim that cotton income (per year per acre) rarely goes beyond Rs50,000. “Even if the yield is 20 maunds (progressive estimate) and sells at Rs4,500 (a rarity in itself) per maund, the farmer gets Rs90,000. Take the ever-growing expenditure out (now around Rs40,000), and the farmer is left with Rs50,000 profit,” says Naeem Hotiana, a local and progressive farmer.

Now compare it with the potato-maize cycle, which is now in vogue in the district. Both are short crops of around three to four months each. Against cotton, which locks resources (both soil and financial) for almost a year being an indeterminate crop, farmers sow potato in October and harvest in February, clearing the field for spring sowing of maize. Potato acre leaves a profit of Rs100,00 to Rs125,000 even in bad conditions (100 bags of 120kg selling at an average of Rs2,300).

Maize yields around 100 maunds and sells at Rs1,600 per maund. Even if a very liberal operational cost of Rs100,000 is deducted, profit is double than that of cotton. Sown in spring, the crop is harvested in May, leaving the field open for another short crop (some varieties of rice) or allowing it to remain unsown for recuperation. “Cotton’s economic failure, albeit an emotional loss for the majority of farmers, is forcing us to look for alternatives,” explains Mr Hotiana.

The livestock sector also illustrates the transitional reality of Vehari. Once a proud host of the Neeli buffalo breed, which sprang from the area to reach as far as Brazil and Australia, the district’s livestock breakup has morphed. The last two livestock census reflect the reality of the buffalo battle. In 2006, the district had 613,228 buffaloes and 346,008 cattle. The situation reversed in the next livestock census (2018) when cattle number jumped to 613,670 and buffalo dropped to 513,736. The ground thus is slipping from under another Vehari celebrity that gave the area its distinction.

Talat Naseer Pasha, former vice-chancellor of the University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, lists the factors behind the buffalo loss. “Cattle has been winning because of the business model of the dairy industry. There has been a massive genetic improvement in cattle. Exotic animals are imported: one estimate suggests imports of 130,000 up till now. Crossbreeding has been the hallmark of cattle. Its males sell both for breeding and sacrifice — a preference denied to buffalo calves. Its feed efficiency is much better because of the genetic improvement and so is milk yield when compared to buffalo. These elements are missing on the buffalo side, which is still being raised according to the old ways.

On top of it all, milk does not sell as buffalo milk; it is mixed with cattle milk (ranging between 30pc to 40pc) and sold, denying buffalo an independent milk market. The transformation of both agriculture and livestock has the same driver: the marketing failure of some and the success of others.”

Beyond this cattle-buffalo battle, the district has been maintaining a good goat stock of 0.63m and backyard poultry of 332,609. The area also houses over 500 broiler sheds which produce 300,000kg chicken meat daily. Its milk production is estimated at 530,000 litres a day, with industry collecting and consuming over 300,000 litres daily.

The three tehsil (Vehari, Burewala and malsi) have a combined area of around 0.9m acres, which is irrigated by Lower Pakpattan and lower Malsi canals — both off taking from the Sidhnai barrage. Since the district falls on the right bank of Sutlej River, it is also the transit route of livestock trade from south to central Punjab.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, December 28th, 2020