Govt sees preliminary economic growth of 3.9pc for 2020-21

Published May 21, 2021
Pakistan's economy is on course to grow 3.94 per cent in FY2021 that ends in June, the government has said. — AFP/File
Pakistan's economy is on course to grow 3.94 per cent in FY2021 that ends in June, the government has said. — AFP/File

The government said on Friday Pakistan's economy was on course to grow 3.94 per cent in the financial year 2020-2021 that ends in June, almost double the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank's projections, as it recovers from the worst of the pandemic.

The planning ministry said its provisional estimate — up from the government's last forecast of 3pc — was based on data for the year so far on growth in the agricultural, industrial and services sectors at 2.77pc, 3.57pc, and 4.43pc respectively.

“This growth in a period in which Covid placed a huge challenge to the economy is extremely gratifying and proof of success of [Prime Minister Imran Khan's] economic policies,” Planning Minister Asad Umar tweeted.

On Friday, the ministry also revised down GDP growth for the financial year that ended on June 30, 2020, to -0.47pc, from -0.38pc.

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The IMF has estimated GDP for 2020-21 growing 1.5pc and the World Bank estimates growth of 1.3pc.

Minister for Energy Hammad Azhar also hailed the GDP projection, saying "this is a remarkable recovery and unlike past growth stints, forex reserves have also grown and the current account remains in surplus."

"Industry led this growth," he added.

The PTI-led government is weeks away from presenting the annual budget which faces tough challenges on the fiscal deficit and an ambitious revenue collection target.

Due to a combination of GDP growth and strengthening of the rupee against the dollar, Pakistan's per capita income jumped by 13.4pc this year from $1,361 to $1,543, Umar said.

Total GDP increased from $263 billion to $296bn, the highest increase recorded in any year, he said.

Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin has said the government is in talks with the IMF to seek easing of “tough conditions” of the $6bn stabilisation programme that Pakistan entered into with the Fund in 2019.

GDP growth was 5.8pc before the PTI-led government took power in 2018 with inflation below 4pc, which was recorded in double digit last month.

Some $2.5bn of borrowing in international bond markets and historically high remittances have recently given some breathing space.

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