PUSHING out three finance ministers, four finance secretaries and eight Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) bosses in a rather short span of three years of PTI rule is starkly odd. It has raised doubts on the stability, unnerved the investors and pressed the scared bureaucrats to the edge.

The issue drew attention again last week that witnessed yet another round of high-level changes in the economic team, starting with the resignation of the special assistant to the prime minister on finance Dr Waqar Masood, followed by the removal of the FBR chairman Asim Ahmed. Insiders told Dawn, they foresee more casualties over the next few days before the cycle — the current cycle — is completed.

Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin, true to his reputation of being bold, did not mince words when reached over the phone in Islamabad. Responding directly to the query on what triggered the move, he said, “I believe in merit and performance. Anybody short on these counts will be shown the door”.

He was hinting at the cyber-attack on the FBR database by some hackers and the failure of its leadership to forestall the breach or deal with it efficiently while keeping the finance minister in the loop. Earlier, he mentioned constant friction with Dr Waqar Masood, a typically cautious bureaucrat, which delayed the implementation of certain decisions he considered important for hitting the growth targets.

Read: It is time for PM Imran to replace the bloated and jaded federal cabinet with a new team

Commenting on the precarious timing of the shuffle, especially in the context of the impending fallout of the dangerously volatile Afghan situation, he noted: “Afghanistan is an evolving situation and we are constantly analysing it to be well-prepared to deal with it. The leadership is fully aware of the possible risks and is taking all possible measures to counter them if and when they occur.”

What matters more — the numbers related to the economy or those of the managers of the economy?

A noted economist, who wished anonymity, put the blame for the frequent high-level changes in the administrative machinery on Prime Minister Imran Khan, who, he said, lacked understanding of the economic matters. “It reflects the naiveté of PM Khan. What do you expect when a leader can’t appreciate the value of stability for economic management,” he wondered.

Abdul Aleem, CEO and Secretary-General of the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said he was not aware of the details of the current shuffling, but advised the government to avoid frequent changes for the negative signals they emit for the investors.

“The government should ensure a robust selection process for key positions, a term-bound tenure of two to three years, and a smooth planned transition for all key posts.

“It can benefit from the governance models adopted by large corporations which have a structured process to ensure a smooth transition of top leadership with due grooming of the next-in-line individuals who are identified one to two years in advance to the satisfaction of the stakeholders.” He offered all possible support for a robust governance structure in selected economic areas.

A senior officer privy to internal discussions in government circles saw the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) as the primary culprit responsible for bureaucratic lethargy.

“With a lifetime of experience in terms of serving multiple governments during their careers, the officers prefer early transfers over a jail cell. The sorry fate of some of their brightest colleagues caught up in NAB cases unjustifiably has alienated them. They are ready for the consequences, but not inclined to sign files involving finance or policy,” he said, claiming that the current changes did not surprise them.

“The PTI leadership and supporters may sing and dance to their hearts’ content over what they consider their achievement. I doubt if they can sell falling current account deficit, higher forex reserves, tax mobilisation and remittance inflows to the voters. As long as people’s expectations related to security, jobs and decent living remain elusive, there is no escaping the brutal verdict for the PTI in the next elections in 2023,” commented a political watcher referring to the PM’s speech at a function held to mark the start of the second-last year of the current PTI tenure.

As long as security and jobs remain elusive, there is no escaping the brutal verdict for PTI in the next elections

Mr Khan presented a comparison of the current account deficit, reserves, tax collection and the annual scale of remittances at the start of his rule in 2018 with corresponding data by the end of the third year as proof of his success.

The current account deficit, he said, was $20 billion when he assumed power and dropped to $1.8bn, foreign exchange reserves surged by $11bn, from $16.4bn in 2018 to $27bn, the tax collection shot up from Rs3.8 trillion in 2018 to Rs4.7tr, and remittances increased by $10bn, from $19.9bn in 2018 to $29.5bn by the close of his third year.

According to details gleaned from relevant websites, before Shaukat Tarin who assumed his current office on April 17 this year, Hammad Azhar served on the post for 19 days (March 29-April 16, 2021), Dr Hafiz Sheikh for about 23 months as a de facto finance minister till December 2020 and de jure later (April 18, 2019, to March 29, 2021), Asad Umer, the first PTI finance minister who assumed office in August 2018, was asked to vacate his post after eight months in April 2019.

On the administrative side, the Ministry of Finance was manned by Kamran Ali Afzal, Naveed Kamran Baloch and Muhammad Younus Dagha before Yusuf Khan’s elevation at the coveted post in May this year.

Since August 2018, FBR has had Tariq Mehmood Pasha, Rukhsana Yasmin, Muhammad Jehanzeb Khan, SM Shabbar Zaidi, Nausheen Javed Amjad, Muhammad Javed Ghani and Asim Ahmed as its head before Dr Muhammad Ashfaq Ahmed assumed charge last week.

What matters more: the numbers related to the economy or those of the managers of the economy?

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, August 30th, 2021