ISLAMABAD: Inflation measured through Sensitive Price Index (SPI) posted an increase of 0.67 per cent for the week ending on Nov 4, driven by a sharp rise in prices of essential food items, data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) showed on Friday.

This is the fifth consecutive week that has witnessed an increase. In October, the highest jump of 1.29pc in weekly inflation was recorded.

For the lowest income group earning below Rs17,732 per month, the SPI increased by 0.9pc and for the group earning above Rs44,175, it rose by 0.58pc.

This was mainly due to an increase in prices of essential items including tomatoes 19.23pc, sugar 5.32pc, mustard oil 3.74pc, LPG 3.23pc, vegetable ghee 1kg 2.86pc, washing soap 2.66pc, banana 2.08pc, eggs 2.05pc, potatoes 1.73pc and rice Irri-6/9 1.28pc.

The items whose prices decreased during the week included onions 3.12pc, chicken 2.06pc and pulse moong 0.39pc.

During the week, out of 51 items, prices of 28 items increased, three items decreased and 20 items remained constant.

President of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), Mian Nasser Hyatt Magoo said: “I do not see any stability in food prices in the coming days in view of alarming rise in world commodity prices, freight charges, broken supply chain mechanism, logistic issues and world oil and RLNG prices.”

He said when the government has netted higher revenue of Rs 375 billion during July-October FY22 then it should have provided some relief to the common man by containing domestic oil prices. He said the government had earned handsome revenue due to rising imports as higher rates of duties and taxes were applied.

The head of research at the Pak-Kuwait Investment Company (PKIC), Samiullah Tariq, however, anticipated a slight fall in food inflation in the coming months in view of correction in rupee-dollar parity, low RLNG price outlook and tapering oil prices.

He said that RLNG price had settled at $30mmbtu from $37mmbtu last week while crude oil prices had fallen last week and the oil price trend looked on the declining path. Also, the value of one dollar in the interbank market is now at Rs170 after hitting the peak of Rs175 on October 26.

He said sugar price would start falling after the start of sugarcane crushing in the second week of this month while the government had already hinted at a bumper sugarcane crop of 80 million tonnes this season.

The only sign of worry has been rising transportation cost on account of soaring diesel and petrol prices but low RLNG price, stability in exchange rate, arrival of new crops like sugarcane and low world oil prices may offset the negative impact of high transportation cost and may bring some price relief for the general public in the coming months, said Mr Samiullah.

Published in Dawn, November 6th, 2021