The government’s bulldozing of a truckload of bills through the joint session of the parliament on Wednesday has added a new twist to the same-page/non-page saga unfolding in agonisingly slow motion the last few weeks. Those who were preparing the last rites of the PTI government are being mocked by those who now believe everything is back to where it was and all is, in fact, rather well for Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The reality however is a bit more complex. Detailed conversations with Red Zone insiders have distilled these five key takeaways in terms of where the politics of Pakistan stands at this moment.

1. The PTI government would have struggled to get the bills passed on Wednesday had it not received some external support. Red Zone insiders have confirmed that this help translated into coalition allies being nudged and gently persuaded to vote with the government despite their earlier protestations. The ‘same-page’ equation therefore did come into play for the joint session and delivered results that the government on its own may have had trouble with as evidenced in its earlier attempt to get the session going. But is this ‘same-page-ness’ back on track or was this a one-off thing?

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2. Here’s where the situation gets a bit complex. Well-placed sources confide that the tension between the PTI government and the establishment over the way the appointment of the ISI DG was handled — or mishandled — is very real. And very present. If someone believes it has evaporated in the heat of partisanship, that someone is not entirely correct. At present there are multiple moving parts swirling in no particular synchronisation in the Red Zone and creating their discordant notes. The change of command at the ISI will take place today (Thursday), even if informally. The new DG Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum has spent a very busy fortnight inside the Red Zone getting briefings for his new command and is now up to speed, as per those in the know. The joint session on Wednesday was not held under his watch, so to speak. The subtleties of ‘same-page-ness’ versus ‘non-page-ness’ may come into play now. But understanding and appreciating the difference between the two will require a nuanced approach. There may, in fact, be a third category between these two. Sometimes the pulse is so weak you have to press hard to catch it.

3. The next few weeks are crucial. The help that the government received in the joint session will most likely taper off shortly. The government knows this. The big question is, can it carry the load that it had till now outsourced? Political management has been a key PTI weakness ever since it cut loose Jehangir Tareen. External help for such management had therefore become not only important but essential. With that help starting to dissipate — or at least dilute — in the coming days, will the government begin to sag under the weight of its own contradictions? The undercurrents of this subtle change will start to manifest themselves shortly. The stepped-up contacts between the PML-N and PML-Q, and the few days of intense criticism from the coalition partners — these were not mere coincidences, and neither were they random events colliding together like errant planets escaping their gravitational forces. These were meant to test waters. Those waters have been tested.

4. The next test will be in the Senate. Opposition insiders say their assessment holds firm that the establishment is not expected to go out of its way to save the government if the opposition launches operation ‘Get Sanjrani’. They believe the Senate chairman has survived multiple attempts against him because he had a protective shield around him. It may wear thin now. The more informed among the opposition benchers believe that the joint session numbers on Wednesday were an ‘aberration’ and will change in the days and weeks ahead. That is why, they believe, they have a fair chance to succeed in a vote of no-confidence against the Senate chairman because they do, after all, have the numbers if those numbers do not receive mysterious calls in the dead of the night.

Read: The logic behind the ‘Get Sanjrani’ operation

5. The government does not lack options, even though it may start to lack external support to the extent that it has enjoyed so far. One option is to step up its political outreach to its own disgruntled members and coalition partners in order to stitch up the perceptional and political rifts it has developed over recent months. The PM will need to lead this outreach himself as a process, not just an event pegged to the possible challenge coming his way in the Senate. However, more important than this is whether the PTI leadership can somehow repair the damage it has wreaked upon its relationship with the establishment. Insiders who monitor the subtleties of such relationships from close quarters believe that the establishment has done nothing to destabilise the government. It has however ‘stepped back’ to an extent. This stepping back, if not reversed by the PTI leadership, will continue to happen. It will have consequences both in terms of perception and reality.

These five takeaways are now gelling together to constitute an altered chessboard for the coming month. On this chessboard the opposition claims to have some clever moves planned that may lead to a checkmate. But there is a problem. The PML-N continues to grapple with its own contradictions even though it can clearly see that a space is opening up from today. Despite their internal consultations to decide how to navigate a clear path through this changing situation, Wednesday saw its two leaders — Shehbaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz — speaking out of sync. The PPP is frustrated. It can smell success, but cannot see it because the PML-N is blocking its view. Between the PML-N, PPP and JUI-F, they have discussed to death options ranging from removing the Senate chairman to building street pressure, to a decisive Lahore jalsa to a long march and perhaps a move against Punjab Chief Minister Usman Buzdar. But all these targets remain fuzzy as long as the three cannot march in step, and as long as the PML-N is unable to decide what it really wants, even when what it really wants may be staring it in the face.

Quite a page-turner this is turning out to be.

Published in Dawn, November 18th, 2021