THE trouncing of the PTI in the first phase of local government elections has come as a significant blow to the ruling party. As a result of the setback, the prime minister is now keenly focused on avoiding an upset in the upcoming Punjab polls, and is said to be personally overseeing preparations.

The JUI-F emerged as the big winner in the KP polls, bagging 17 out of 47 tehsil councils and leaving the PTI with 12. The development has created a wave of optimism in opposition ranks at a time when the so-called anti-government drive exists only in name. Months of protests against the government by the PDM and vows to resign from the assemblies, plus declarations of long marches, have hardly dented the PTI’s morale. But since the LG polls this week, the opposition leaders are ecstatic.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman has boasted that his JUI-F is the largest political force in the province; Asif Ali Zardari has hinted that those devising ‘minus-one formulae’ are asking for help, though he said no talks would be held until the PTI is ousted. And Shehbaz Sharif has dubbed the KP polls as the “beginning of the end of an experiment that has cost the nation dearly”. Though they are riding on the recent wave of the JUI-F’s success and PTI’s defeat in the KP polls, the reality is that the ruling party’s losses have more to do with its own failings than any intelligent strategy of the opposition.

Uncontrolled inflation, a poor economic performance, unemployment, and water and gas shortages have plagued the PTI in both the long and the short term, cementing the impression that the party is far from the days of its peak confidence in the aftermath of the 2018 polls. The fiasco in KP was due to both low party morale and the selection of the wrong candidates as admitted by the PM himself. Furthermore, it is said that it was a PTI vs PTI showdown, betraying that the KP poll strategy itself was in disarray.

Red Zone Files: With its fortress breached, the PTI may now find itself fighting for its political survival

Though the opposition has obviously benefited from this lack of planning and low morale, their own strategies and internal wrangling give little hope for something impactful to come next. The PTI’s infighting has caused serious damage, but the PDM’s quarrelling with the PPP and the PML-N’s leadership crisis still persist.

It is perhaps too soon for the opposition to rejoice, even as the ruling party is smarting from its recent defeat. Overcoming the political friction between opposition parties and finding a lasting solution to the Maryam Nawaz vs Shehbaz Sharif crisis is no mean feat. The PTI may be fumbling due to its own mistakes, but the truth is that the opposition parties remain mired in problems of their own making. Unless they get their act together, their current elation will fizzle out as quickly as did the ‘power show’ of the PDM.

Published in Dawn, December 25th, 2021