THE surge in Covid-19 cases, especially in Karachi, points to a worrying trend that, if not taken seriously by both the authorities and members of the public, can end in disaster. The Omicron variant is spreading like wildfire in the metropolis, with the positivity ratio increasing to 10pc and infection rate rising steeply from 50pc to 81pc within a week. Daily total tests across the country remain below 50,000, which means the number of actual Covid-19 positive patients could be much higher.

Though studies from South Africa and the UK suggest Omicron causes less severe symptoms and fewer hospitalisations, the WHO has warned against describing it as mild given it is leading to deaths all over the world. While studies may show that fewer people are falling very sick, hospitals in several countries are coming under immense pressure. Pakistan is no exception, with health experts in Karachi already noting increased hospital admissions. Meanwhile, asymptomatic Omicron positive patients are amplifying community spread as they continue to mix with members of the public. This is deeply worrying in a population where, although over 73 million people have received two doses, the rest are either partially vaccinated or unvaccinated. It is said that Omicron is infecting even vaccinated citizens, but the severity of the illness is largely curtailed in those who are fully protected.

As Pakistan enters its fifth wave, it is imperative for the government to take swift action to protect the public and the healthcare systems. A mass campaign about Covid-19 SOPs and preventions must be restarted, which engages both traditional and non-traditional media to urge people to wear masks, maintain social distancing and get vaccinated. In many countries where Omicron appears to be wreaking less havoc, swathes of the population have had their third booster dose — which means citizens’ levels of immunity against critical illness in those places are higher than where individuals have had just two doses. Authorities simply cannot afford to take this wave lightly, especially given how rapidly the new variant is spreading and how casually the public is taking it. The response of citizens is reflective of the lack of public awareness, a key responsibility of the state when it comes to protecting citizens from Covid-19. The federal and provincial governments must also do more to ramp up testing and find out the Covid-19 hotspots. Mini or ‘smart-lockdowns’ which proved beneficial in past waves, too, can be considered to contain the virus and also allow the rest of the economy to function. Our healthcare infrastructure compared to countries where Omicron is rampant is far weaker, so its spread poses a very real threat of overwhelming hospitals. Authorities must improve messaging, ramp up daily testing and vaccinations, and act fast in areas where cases are rapidly rising if they want to avoid an all-out disaster.

Published in Dawn, January 9th, 2022