There’s a whiff of change in the air. Opponents of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) government are anticipating an early ouster of PM Khan. The regime has been plagued by incompetence and a deteriorating economy. The whiff has triggered sudden activity among Karachi’s prominent political parties, who have begun to come out in numbers to be seen. Also on the horizon are the local bodies elections. 

Karachi, the capital of Sindh, the country’s largest metropolis and economic hub, is also Pakistan’s most ethnically diverse city. Urdu-speaking Mohajirs have been the majority community here since the 1950s, but their percentage is declining. From constituting 54.34 percent of the city’s population in 1981, the proportion has fallen to 42.30 percent in 2017. The Pakhtuns are the fastest growing ethnic group in Karachi — growing more here than in the Pakhtun-majority province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

Punjabis are the third largest community, closely followed by Sindhis. Other communities include the Saraiki, Baloch, Hindko, Kashmiri, Gujarati, Hazara, Gilgiti, Bengali, Burmese and others. It is often said that if one walks even a mile on a road in Karachi, he/she will be able to hear multiple languages.

Karachi is a port city. Port cities have a dynamic, impersonal and diverse social environment. But the diversity can also produce complex political scenarios. Recently, predicting election results in Karachi has become a complicated endeavour.

Voting trends in this mammoth city are undergoing a transformation. Between 1988 and 2013, the city was simpler to predict. It kept returning large numbers of candidates from the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), while the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) was the city’s second largest electoral outfit.

As the local government polls get closer, once again Karachi seems to be as much up for grabs as it was in 2018

During the 2013 elections, PTI overtook PPP to become Karachi’s second largest party. Then, during the 2018 elections, PTI became the city’s largest party, replacing the MQM — although the results were questioned. The next general elections in the city are likely to produce mixed results.

Till 1988, the city was infamous for producing scattered results. During the 1970 elections, the Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan (JUP), Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), and PPP won 2 seats each. The 1977 elections produced similar results, even though JI and JUP were part of an anti-PPP alliance.

In the 1980s, the city became an epicentre of ethnic violence. Its infrastructure began to deteriorate because of the negligence exhibited by the Gen Zia dictatorship towards Karachi. Mohajir and Pakhtun communities went to war over the city’s dwindling economic resources. From the violence emerged the MQM, and swept the 1988 elections.  

With a combination of Mohajir nationalism, developmental works and militancy, MQM continued to bag the largest number of seats till 2013. This, despite the fact that it had to face two major security operations against its ‘militants’ in the 1990s.

Hundreds perished, yet the operations could not neutralise MQM’s electoral dominance. But from 2008, the party began its slow decline. The Awami National Party (ANP) became popular among the city’s Pakhtuns, and the PPP retained its electoral dominance in Karachi’s Sindhi and Baloch enclaves.

In 2009, a new (albeit non-electoral) player entered the fray in the shape of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). An Islamist militant group, it began to mercilessly eliminate ANP, MQM and PPP cadres on ideological grounds, during the city’s infamous turf wars. 

After the 2008 elections, the PPP, MQM and ANP had formed a coalition government in the centre and in Sindh. But because of infighting, mismanagement and TTP attacks, ANP was almost wiped out in Karachi, MQM seemed all at sea, and PPP was struggling to retain its strongholds.

Thus, PTI succeeded in making deep inroads here during the 2013 elections. It usurped the bulk of Karachi’s Pakhtun and Punjabi votes, and also managed to attract a substantial quantity of Mohajir votes.

In 2015, MQM shattered into various factions. This truly opened up Karachi’s many constituencies. During the controversial 2018 elections, JI tried to revive its old Mohajir vote-bank, but it was knocked-out by PTI and the radical Tehreek-i-Labbaik (TLP).

During these elections, PTI again received a large chunk of Karachi’s Pakhtun and Punjabi votes. What’s more, upper-middle and middle class MQM votes too were gobbled up by PTI, whereas MQM’s vital lower-middle class votes were mostly cast in favour of TLP.

Karachi once again seems to be as open as it was in 2018, if not more. The last by-election here (for NA-249) held in March 2021, is a case in point. NA-249 is one of the largest constituencies of the city, multi-ethnic, but with a substantial Pakhtun and Punjabi population.

NA-249 was won by PTI in 2018 but, in 2021, it was won by the PPP, a party that has ruled Sindh since 2008. It is now clearly investing a lot more effort in attracting voters in Karachi as well — especially those who are clearly disappointed by PTI’s utter lack of performance in the city.

On the other hand, JI is also once again looking to revive its historic vote-bank among the Mohajirs. Also gaining traction (among non-Mohajir communities) is the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). At the moment, Karachi might have one of the largest number of undecided voters in the country. PPP, JI and PML-N will all be chasing these, and also the lapsed PTI supporters.

Read more: Prolonged Karachi sit-in brings Jamaat-i-Islami into mainstream after years

I can’t see how PTI will be able to arrest its dwindling appeal in the city. What’s more, its bad performance has also rubbed off on its allies. MQM-P is one of them. It suffered heavily in the by-elections. It will be tough for MQM to revive itself. It will be fighting for crumbs.

Things can improve for the party during local bodies elections, if its various factions can somehow reunite. But what will they be offering to the voters? Today, more than ever, Karachi’s electorate are demanding jobs, roads, water and electricity connections and sewerage lines. MQM has done precious little in this respect, even while it sits on the treasury benches in Islamabad. The worn-out slogan of ‘Karachi province’ won’t work.

What about TLP? It has no programme, other than fantasies of a cosmic war it is asking its supporters to fight in the here and now for a place in heaven in the hereafter. The party can be a spoiler in some constituencies, but that’s about it. 

Published in Dawn, EOS, January 30th, 2022