ISLAMABAD: Though, the opposition seems confident and determined in bringing a no-confidence motion against the government, background interviews with a number of key opposition leaders reveal that things are still sketchy and at a very initial stage as many key decisions are yet to be made.

According to an insider, who is privy to all the developments which took place in the past couple of weeks, the opposition parties are wary of the fact that they cannot afford to see their no-confidence move failing at this crucial time when elections are merely 20 months away.

Therefore, he said, the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan would only be tabled in the National Assembly when they were 100 per cent sure about its chances of success.

Dawn has come to know that not only there are differences within the opposition parties over the strategy that they will be required to deal with the possible scenarios after execution of their no-confidence plan, the main opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is also clearly divided into two camps over the issue.

Differences exist within opposition parties over strategy for dealing with possible scenarios

The insider said it was true that some disgruntled members of the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) were in contact with the opposition, but the number was not sufficient to complete the numbers required for the no-confidence move and they would definitely be requiring the support of all or some of the PTI allies, including the PML-Q, Muttahida Qaumi Movemnent (MQM), Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) and the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA). And these are the parties, according to him, which will never make any decision without getting a green signal from the real power players.

Moreover, he said, it would not be possible for the PTI members to support the no-confidence motion as there would be an open vote and they could face defection under Article 63-A of the constitution. Therefore, he said, there were more chances that the opposition might consider tabling the no confidence motion against National Assembly Speaker Asad Qaiser or his deputy Qasim Suri as in that situation there would be a secret ballot. If the opposition succeeds, there will be moral pressure on Imran Khan to either resign or seek a fresh vote of confidence.

He, however, ruled out the possibility of moving a no-trust motion against Senate Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani at this stage because of two reasons. Number one, Mr Sanjrani’s ouster will have no direct impact on the PTI government and secondly, because such a move can bring the umpires into action who have been so far demonstrating neutrality to some extent.

Read: Can the opposition muster the magic number to make a no-confidence motion successful this time?

Talking on condition of anonymity, a senior PML-N leader said the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) was pressing the other opposition parties that in case of the success of their move against the prime minister, they should form a government for the interim period till the elections scheduled to be held sometime in October 2023.

On the other hand, he said, there was a strong group within the PML-N, headed by party’s supremo Nawaz Sharif, which believed that they should go for fresh elections after getting rid of the present set-up under the PTI.

He recalled that former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi had already publicly stated that his party wanted to see the country going into fresh elections after getting rid of Imran Khan through a no-confidence motion.

He claimed that the PPP was so much optimistic about the success of the no-confidence motion that it had even suggested the names of Raja Pervez Ashraf and Syed Khurshid Shah for the premiership for the interim period. However, he said, the PPP had also showed its willingness to support Shehbaz Sharif for the top office of the country’s chief executive, provided he would work only for bringing election reforms.

When asked as to why the PML-N has all of a sudden become active for the no-confidence option when previously the party had outright rejected such a move, he said it was because Nawaz Sharif had for the first time given full authority to the younger Sharif to do whatever possible to remove the present PTI government. For this purpose, he said, the elder Sharif, though reluctantly, had given a green signal to Shehbaz Sharif that he could even approach “Pindi” for this purpose, besides talking to any of the government allies, including the PML-Q.

The PML-N leader claimed that the PPP had also established some backdoor contacts with the real power players in the country and Asif Zardari was confident that this time the umpires would remain neutral.

About the role of Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F), he said, the Maulana was also in favour of immediate elections in the country and was not supporting the PPP’s idea of forming an interim government.

Meanwhile, sources told Dawn that the Chaudhrys of Gujrat were not in a mood to support the opposition’s expeditious move as they could get nothing more than what they were already getting under Chief Minister Usman Buzdar. They said the Chaudhrys had been enjoying complete authority under the Buzdar administration and had a greater say in almost every affair of the province, including key transfers and postings.

Published in Dawn, February 14th, 2022